chad hampton
Elite Member
- Joined
- Nov 10, 2006
- Professional Status
- Certified Residential Appraiser
- State
- North Carolina
What that advocacy organization could have been for working appraisers. Such a shame. If only they advocated.
Catch-22
The Appraisal Institute needs to move appraisal methods forward by an order of magnitude, from simple matched-pair analysis and OLS (ordinary linear regression) to non-parametric or partially non-parametric data mining methods such as MARS, GLR (glmnet), and GAM (mgcv), adding R, Python, HTML, Javascript, CSS and other languages, adding Mapping (GIS, QGIS, ...) including objective methods to define neighborhoods, Quarto reporting to different formats, Postgres, Sqlite, ..., and using AI tools such as Claude, ChatGPT and Grok.
This requires a talent pool capable of learning and effectively using these tools.
Only a very small percentage of the existing pool of appraiser talent in the US has the necessary educational background and intellectual skills for learning the above tools. In fact, instructors to teach them are just as sorely lacking.
There isn't anyone to teach the required courses, and even if there were, there aren't any potential appraisal students who could learn the needed skills.
Some organizations could start the processes, but it wouldn't be popular with the membership. And even if they did, it would take many years to implement on any scale that could be considered sufficient.
So, quite frankly! The process is unlikely to succeed, especially from the perspective of appraisal organizations. The most that will be produced by any effort by them is a new generation of quacks, of which we can already see quite a number on LinkedIn - yes, that is where you will find them.
The industry will have to limp along with what it has. It will be chaotic and open to corruption in ways never before seen.
If, pray god, some company, organization or individual wants a genuinely supported valuation of a property:
1. It/he/she needs to find what can be best described as a "Valuation Engineer".
2. Valuation Engineers may simply avoid State Appraiser Licenses and offer their services as Consultants.
3. Users who need a loan will be required to find an appraiser to do their bidding for the GSEs. They may hand the Valuation Engineer's analysis to the appraiser as guidance. Slowly, but surely, the profession will adapt.
All AI ever had to do was state how every decision they made and ever stance they took was a benefit to their working appraiser members. And they just can’t do it.
Do you know complex? and your subject? and your intended use and user?Well, you are close to the real and final solution.
This is what will happen: Applications will be created to handle all detailed and analytical work, as well as reporting. Robots will do the inspection - imagine 1 or 2 Optimus-type robots arriving at a house in a self-driving EV. An AI-Agent will manage the whole thing. A brilliant verbal report will be delivered by the AI-Agent, backed up by Logic Programming, graphs, and the verbiage. It will be as understandable as can be. Every assertion will be proven. Every available fact supplied (one way or another). Every argument will be provenly backed up by indisputable logic and math.
That is what will happen.
Yes, at some high level, there will be human monitoring and supervision. But for all practical purposes, 99% of the tasks and responsibilities involved in executing the appraisal protocols will be handled by AI and automation.
That is the New World.
And you will see this across the board, where tasks are highly complex and reliability, safety, speed, and efficiency are all important. Education, manufacturing, police, medical care, surveillance, security and on and on.
So, where does that leave us humans? It will require a lot of adaptation.
There are many follow-up questions that can be asked, such as: Where does this leave the Appraisal Institute? Does it just become a kind of legacy organization to manage a dying profession? IMO, yes, I believe so. It will, in the process, lose structure, respect, and become ever more corrupt. Where there is no hope, there is only rot. Slow, decaying rot.