Appraiser Career Progression

[rmoss]

All - I'd like to understand the typical (i.e., most often) way in which an appraiser progresses within the field. For example, does an appraiser typically begin at the licensed level, then progress to certified residential, and then move on to certified general?

Said another way, roughly what percent of certified residential appraisers "stepped up" from the licensed level and roughly what percent entered field at this level? What about for certified general? How many stepped up and how many simply made this their starting point?

Any thoughts, guesses, estimates, or feedback is much appreciated.

Thanks.

 

[josephdifranco]

I don't really have percentages, but I think its more typical to stay with the first license level you receive. However, I converted from residential to commercial after being in residential a long time. In Illinois, you get a trainee license so you could learn either one.

General consensus seems to be that if you are looking to be in commercial, that you are better off starting in commercial, where the learning curve is long.

Good luck.

 

[Pittsburgh Pete]

I'd work toward a CG but team up with someone that will allow you to cut your teeth on some residential work. Given the volume of sales in residential vs. commercial, it is easier to see the issues at hand be they functional obsolescence, locational issues, etc. in residential. It is easier to see these issues on the residential level which will then prepare you for the tougher road in commercial.

 

[OSU Beavers]

Education requirements for appraisers (two year and four year degrees) are coming January 1, 2015. Make sure that you meet the minimum requirements before getting to far into career planing.

 

[PrincessLeia]

Licensing Trends - Past and Future

There is no standard operating basis for this. Some states don't require trainee licenses so one can jump straight to Certified Residential or General. That's what I did.

CA BREA/OREA said that license levels are meant to build from one to the next. Ie: get Licensed, then get your Certified, then General.

However, I've heard from several Certified Residential Appraisers that the "Licensed" level is not worth a lot. Ie- Lenders/AMCs currently don't want to mess with who can do what. So, getting independent work as a licensed appraiser is minimal. You usually have to keep working with, or for, someone and the pay isn't as good. Thus, the licensed level is not nearly as desirable. (Plus, you have to pay almost double in application fees and wait twice as long in application processing time to get licensed, then Certified when the requirements are only a difference of 500 hours and a few courses... So one might as well jump straight to Certified before Dec 31, 2014 if they can.)

Past Trends

From 2009 - 2013, the Appraisal Industry lost 11% of Appraisers or 12,500 appraisers overall with the greatest segment lost from "Licensed Appraisers" at 10%-20% per year since 2009. (Ref: Licensed Column, Green Text below.)

Also, the number of Certified Residential and Certified General appraisers has been steadily decreasing slightly each year with an average of -1.33% per year for Certified Residential and 0.77% per year for Certified General. Note, trainees figures are excluded.

Percentage of Change Per Year in Appraisers by License Level:
Year.........................Total...........General.........Cert. Res.........Licensed
2012 to 2013..........-1.46%..........-0.21%..........-0.23%............-9.93%
2011 to 2012..........-3.49%..........-1.29%..........-2.44%..........-12.39%
2010 to 2011..........-3.50%..........-0.93%..........-1.35%..........-15.49%
2009 to 2010..........-3.04%...........0.65%...........1.28%...........-19.95%


These are the figures I initially calculated to derive the percentages from:

Approx Total Number of Appraisers in the US by License Level
Year..................Total............General.........Cert. Res........Licensed
2013...............100,900..........32,187..........56,908..........11,805
2012...............102,400..........32,256..........57,037..........13,107
2011...............106,100..........32,679..........58,461..........14,960
2010...............109,950..........32,985..........59,263..........17,702
2009...............113,400..........32,773..........58,514..........22,113

The above data was derived from the Appraisal Institute. Figure 1 & Figure 3 - Click here for the Document.

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Prediction of Future Trends

The change in education requirements at the end of this year (Ref: AQB Summary of Changes) will have a definite impact on the total number of appraisers and percentage of appraisers per licensing level in the industry.

I believe the number of Licensed and Certified appraisers will significantly increase in 2014 with new applicants trying to get their licenses before the education requirement increase.

Starting in 2016, I believe the # of Licensed Appraisers may increase (since a minimal 30 college credits are required for licensing) whereas the amount of Certified Residential and Certified General Appraisers will continue to decrease as with recent trends. (Ref: Green text above.) However, in order for the number of Licensed Appraisers to increase, Lenders/AMCs may need to start employing them because otherwise, there is no benefit to getting licensed if there's no work.

Why has the level Certified Residential & Certified General Appraisers been decreasing? There's a lot of reasons including the economy, increased appraiser duties, increased investigations, etc. But more important for the future is that 48.4% of Appraisers have been in the industry over 20 years. (Ref: Figure 4) And, more than half the appraisers in the US are 51 - 65 years of age. (Ref: Appraiser Demographics with Sara W. Stephens, MAI.)

Within the next 10-15 years, these appraisers (aged 51 - 65) will most likely retire, thus reducing the # of Certified Residential and Certified General appraisers by approximately 50%! Also, with the education requirements increasing, there will be a decrease in the number of new Certified and General appraisers because a Bachelor's Degree will be required.

Thus over the next 15-20 years it's expected that there will be a significant decrease in the overall number of Certified/General appraisers in the US. (Ref: Appraiser Demographics with Sara W. Stephens, MAI). Provided there is not a major shift onto computerized valuation models (which I don't think could ever fully replace appraisers)... Increasing population means higher demand with less available appraisers (supply) and thus higher fees!!! (And hopefully, longer turn-around times!

Once this problem becomes critical with too few certified appraisers to satisfy the demand, Lenders/AMCs may become more friendly to "Licensed Appraisers." The "powers that be" may also lower the barriers to entry to make it easier for new licensees to enter the profession. But this is still probably many years in the making...

So, in short: Starting in 2016 and over the next 20 years, there will most likely be a continued decrease in Certified Residential & Certified General appraisers (with possibly an increase in licensed appraisers) and thus higher workflow and fees for appraisers who are Certified.

If one is going to make appraising their career, I suggest getting their Certified Residential license and then over time, pursuing Certified General. Certified General appraisers are ALWAYS in demand. Even if one prefers residential appraising, getting one's certified general license is a good idea. It just depends on whether one is willing to put in the effort to re-apprentice, complete any necessary degrees, etc.

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I would be interested to hear from some Licensed Appraisers ... Do you work independently? Is it hard to get work? How long have you been licensed? Do you think it's worth getting "licensed" or going straight to Certified? All the info I have on Licensed appraisers is verbal info from Certified Residential appraisers who don't have real life experience on what its like to be "Licensed."

 

[OSU Beavers]

Hmmm, the instructor at my recent USPAP class said we are down to 83,000 appraisers nationally for 2014. Does that 100,900 figure count appraisers licensed in multiple states?

 

[PrincessLeia]

Yes, the 100k figure includes Licensed, Certified Residential and Certified General. It does not include Trainees.

 

[PrincessLeia]

Appraisers Licensed in Multiple States

Sorry, Just realized I didn't answer your question in my previous post. I've had my coffee now...

Hmmm, the instructor at my recent USPAP class said we are down to 83,000 appraisers nationally for 2014. Does that 100,900 figure count appraisers licensed in multiple states?

It appears so but I am not 100% sure. I checked the pdf from AI. The bottom of page 1 says "Sources: U.S. appraiser population statistics derived from the ASC National Registry as of December 31, 2013." (Ref: US Valuation Profession Fact Sheet).

The site they're pulling the data from is ASC.gov. According to ASC's website there are 100,324 licensed-general appraisers in the US (as of 2014). This doesn't appear to take into account appraisers licensed in multiple states since it's listed by state. (Ref: Active Appraiser Credentials Summary Report)


According to the AI pdf, the rate of appraisers with duplicate licenses in multiple states is 18.2% (Ref: Figure 2). If one took 18.2% off 100,900, it would mean 82,536 licensed-general appraisers in the US as of Dec 2013. This seems to coincide with the figure your USPAP instructor gave.

-

This might be interesting... I pulled the data from Wiki vs. ASC.gov info.

It's a breakdown of the Amount of population for each Appraiser by State(Licensed through General). For Example: In Puerto Rico, there is 1 appraiser for every 9,718 people. Note- I used the estimated population statistics as of July 1, 2013 from Wiki.

Rating - # Appraisers - State or Territory
......... per Population
1 …… 9,718 ….. PUERTO RICO
2 …… 5,050 ….. TEXAS
3 …… 4,869 ….. NEW YORK
4 …… 4,079 ….. OKLAHOMA
5 …… 3,852 ….. PENNSYLVANIA
6 …… 3,764 ….. OHIO
7 …… 3,709 ….. LOUISIANA
8 …… 3,599 ….. ALABAMA
9 …… 3,574 ….. ARKANSAS
10 ….. 3,511 ….. TENNESSEE
11 ….. 3,492 ….. MICHIGAN
12 ….. 3,430 ….. CALIFORNIA
13 ….. 3,374 ….. NEW MEXICO
14 ….. 3,340 ….. ILLINOIS
15 ….. 3,254 ….. NEW JERSEY
16 ….. 3,238 ….. ALASKA
17 ….. 3,208 ….. MASSACHUSETTS
18 ….. 3,201 ….. KENTUCKY
19 ….. 3,063 ….. WISCONSIN
20 ….. 3,059 ….. ARIZONA
21 ….. 3,048 ….. NORTH CAROLINA
22 ….. 3,015 ….. WEST VIRGINIA
23 ….. 2,937 ….. FLORIDA
24 ….. 2,896 ….. IOWA
25 ….. 2,896 ….. INDIANA
26 ….. 2,821 ….. KANSAS
27 ….. 2,787 ….. GEORGIA
28 ….. 2,785 ….. NEBRASKA
29 ….. 2,729 ….. OREGON
30 ….. 2,724 ….. MISSISSIPPI
31 ….. 2,705 ….. HAWAII
32 ….. 2,686 ….. MONTANA
33 ….. 2,667 ….. NEVADA
34 ….. 2,660 ….. MINNESOTA
35 ….. 2,560 ….. MISSOURI
36 ….. 2,558 ….. CONNECTICUT
37 ….. 2,551 ….. WASHINGTON
38 ….. 2,538 ….. NORTH DAKOTA
39 ….. 2,503 ….. MARYLAND
40 ….. 2,470 ….. SOUTH DAKOTA
41 ….. 2,373 ….. VIRGINIA
42 ….. 2,364 ….. MAINE
43 ….. 2,355 ….. UTAH
44 ….. 2,233 ….. IDAHO
45 ….. 2,223 ….. RHODE ISLAND
46 ….. 2,161 ….. VERMONT
47 ….. 2,117 ….. SOUTH CAROLINA
48 ….. 2,015 ….. COLORADO
49 ….. 1,704 ….. WYOMING
50 ….. 1,703 ….. NEW HAMPSHIRE
51 ….. 1,602 ….. DELAWARE
52 ….. 1,056 ….. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA


... Looks like we should all move to Puerto Rico...

 

[Renee Healion]

Don't get trampled by people leaving the island.
[url]http://nyti.ms/1f4nZT7[/URL]

Nice compilation

 

[OSU Beavers]

Very nice, thank you.

I did something similar with Oregon counties a few years ago, except some of our counties have zero appraisers in residence.