Appraiser Shortage Myth

[Non Sequitur]

On another forum, from Dana Murray

View attachment 107103

Thank you, thank you, thank you, for speaking the truth.

 

[Non Sequitur]

He is going to get Harmonization Task Forced! That analysis suggests that TAF is a bunch of manipulative, lying, political slugs. Oh, yeah, they are!

"The Appraisal Foundation (TAF) has committed $1.22 million over the next three years to fully fund enrollments in an approved Practical Applications of Real Estate Appraisal (PAREA) program through the Foundation Pathways to Success Scholarship."

"This initiative is rooted in the Foundation’s strategic plan, which calls for building a strong new generation of appraisers to further public trust in the profession. By working together to streamline state-level requirements that exceed AQB criteria, the Task Force aims to:

• Expand access to licensure
• Increase the number of qualified appraisers
• Align with the evolving needs of the profession"

TAF announces new State Harmonization Task Force project | News | Valuation Review

From The Appraisal Foundation’s (TAF) May newsletter, the State Harmonization Task Force project was announced, with TAF President Kelly Davids sharing more May highlights with appraisers.

www.valuationreview.com

100% about $$$$$ for education providers and the regulatory mess in DC.

 

[gregb]

I haven't done an analysis on it, but his analysis makes sense to me.

Here is Dana's post relating to the graphs.

"This is an analysis using the proper 20-year baseline. Here's what you now have:

The Math (2005-2006 Baseline → 2024):

Work declined 71% while appraisers declined only 36%

• 2005-2006 Average: 11.66M appraisals ÷ 106,022 appraisers = 110 appraisals each
• 2024: 3.34M appraisals ÷ 68,000 appraisers = 49 appraisals each
• Work per appraiser dropped 55% — impossible if there's a shortage

Chart 1 - Comprehensive 3-Panel Analysis:

• Panel A: Shows all three metrics together over 20 years
• Panel B: Workload per appraiser — visually proves the lie
• Panel C: Direct comparison showing work disappeared TWICE as fast as appraisers

Chart 2 - Executive Summary:

• Simple bar chart anyone can understand
• Shows appraisers at 64% of baseline, but work at only 29% of baseline
• Includes "conclusion box" with the finding

Why This Analysis:

1. Uses housing bubble peak as baseline — can't be dismissed as "pandemic anomaly"
2. Complete 20-year market cycle — shows build-up, crash, and recovery
3. Accounts for waivers — shows the work systematically taken up by waivers
4. Simple math — even eliminating ALL waivers would only get workload to 61% of baseline

The Arguments for Your Presentations:

"If we had a shortage..."

• Workload per appraiser would be RISING, not falling
• We'd see appraisers working 150-200 assignments/year, not 49
• GSEs would be BEGGING appraisers to take work, not implementing waivers

"Even with no waivers..."

• Current originations (4.58M) ÷ current appraisers (68,000) = 67 assignments each
• That's still 39% BELOW baseline workload
• We could eliminate waivers AND add zero new appraisers and still have surplus capacity

"The timeline proves GSE intent..."

• 2015-2019: Waivers climb to 22-32% while market recovers
• 2020-2021: Waivers explode to 49% during boom (taken away 88 assignments per appraiser)
• 2022-2024: Volume crashes but waivers persist at 15-27%
• Result: Appraisers get squeezed on BOTH ends

This data proves they appear to have manufactured the shortage narrative to justify automation that benefits their bottom line at appraisers' expense.

Ready for your next board meeting, legislative testimony, or industry conference.

Appraiser shortage 20year analysis"

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

This is why we have to have immigration.

No. It's why we need paternity testing upon birth and 100% shared custody of children in a divorce. Eliminate no-fault divorce. No alimony. No child support. You pay 50%, the spouse pays 50% and each has equal custody. Then we'd see a lot less incentive to divorce. Divorce which favors women is discouraging men from seeking marriage.

The world population is downsizing. That's one issue. But AI needs to be treated as labor and AI and robots should be paying into SS and Medicare funds just like human employees. We do not need illegal immigration under any circumstances, but we can have legal immigration of people who hold skills we need. We do not need the masses of unskilled and especially those who hold political views like Shirai law that are in direct conflict with our constitution.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

We'd see appraisers working 150-200 assignments/year, not 49

We have appraisers claiming they are working 400 or more per year. Runners? Staff? I don't know. BUT I suspect the lower number of assignments is because the easy ones are not being given to independent fee appraisers. They are done in house. We have few non-conforming loans over the de minimus and a huge percent here are done by evaluations not appraisals. Further, the assignments that appraisers get are far more complex and time consuming than they were 30 years ago. The reports are larger and only marginally offset by the increased number of tools at our disposal like digital cameras and built in flood maps, etc.

For conforming loans (secondary market) the demands for additional graphs, support and details on adjustments has slowed the appraisal process down. I see people say they can do an appraisal in 4 hours. Really? Are they counting time for ROVs, questions and computer-generated reviews? The folks I know are spending 2 days or more on simple houses and even more for the rarer home types, rural properties or complex assignments. And no one has defined "complex" despite the regulators demand that these complex assignments be handled by the more experienced appraiser. Go figure. The new forms are verry likely to slow appraisers down and invite even more scrutiny from these idiot computer reviewers. You know AI will be front and center in vetting your reports.

 

[Carnivore]

No. It's why we need paternity testing upon birth and 100% shared custody of children in a divorce. Eliminate no-fault divorce. No alimony. No child support. You pay 50%, the spouse pays 50% and each has equal custody. Then we'd see a lot less incentive to divorce. Divorce which favors women is discouraging men from seeking marriage.

The world population is downsizing. That's one issue. But AI needs to be treated as labor and AI and robots should be paying into SS and Medicare funds just like human employees. We do not need illegal immigration under any circumstances, but we can have legal immigration of people who hold skills we need. We do not need the masses of unskilled and especially those who hold political views like Shirai law that are in direct conflict with our constitution.

That is an interesting concept to tax AI as labor. As far as divorce it happens and women do often now make the same if not more than the man. I have an old friend who is an appraiser he has married and divorced three times and all three of his X's have had to pay him to settle the divorce. He and his ex wives never had any children.

Population Clock

Shows estimates of current USA Population overall and people by US state/county and of World Population overall, by country and most populated countries.

www.census.gov

[td]One birth every 9 seconds[/td] [td]One death every 9 seconds[/td] [td]One international migrant (net) every 90 seconds[/td] [td]Net gain of one person every 57 seconds[/td]

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Again, are these immigrants contributing to our society or a burden on it? Most of these coming in during the Biden years are displacing the very least educated of our citizen population thus are a burden upon the rest of us. Who will pick the crops is the least viable of all the arguments. Who picked the crops before Covid? The farmers of California, as an example, have a lot of worse problems. Lack of irrigation water, over-regulation, and now a shortage of legal trucks to haul produce due to CA regulations as well as overly expensive energy costs.

 

[cashcatz]

Automation and AI are going to balance out the population decline, I see it as win-win.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Automation and AI are going to balance

I would be surprised. Yes, some people will benefit enormously. But for a lot of people who lose jobs, have to retrain for something less profitable, the reality is like globalization. The rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer.

 

[George Hatch]

America already takes in an avg of 1M immigrants a year through the front door. If we needed more immigration all it would take would be to expand those quotas. If we needed more workers in our food production pipelines we could expand the worker visa programs. Based on OUR needs and subject to OUR qualifications criteria as is our right as a sovereign nation.

We are not morally, ethically or legally obligated to submit to the open borders ideology.