Appraising an outlier properties

[App601]

Okay... you got me. Super adequacy is a form of functional obsolescence.

I'm not convinced though. The op only went 12 months back in time. A deeper dive might turn up a larger dwelling within the development.

The regression model that I used went down to 2018 The highest priced sale was the one for $200000 and it was the inly one at this price . This is no $300k market Ave age is 55. The mean is $145 There is no way I will appraise it for $300

 

[J Grant]

The regression model that I used went down to 2018 The highest priced sale was the one for $200000 and it was the inly one at this price . This is no $300k market Ave age is 55. The mean is $145 There is no way I will appraise it for $300

Nobody is telling you to appraise it for 300k. We have no idea what is worth. IDK why you are relying on regression rather than searching competing area or back in time for pools or larger houses to see what they are selling for-to determine if pool truly has no value or the larger sf is a super adequacy or not, and if so - to what extent-

 

[Fernando]

You know the market better than us.
I do know PR has many hurricanes almost every year. Fortunately none since 2022.
After the big one I remembered a year later when I was there, the island hasn't recovered from their power grid situation.
Seems like still continuing problems with their private power company.

 

[J Grant]

Waivers are looking better and better
with each new thread I read on the AF.

It's scary how many are just making up adjustments. Hell let's throw in some extraordinary assumptions into the mix to really blow the Fannie machine up for good.

I see the reverse - a sharp increase of really wacky posts where appraisers are not making up adjustments, but instead abandoning traditional techniques and are desperate for a computer program or regression to spit out an adjustment, which may not be relevant and then they have no idea what to do with it or if it even makes sense.
FF are to blame in part as well as the AMC universe which demands precion type support, much of which turns out to be misleading or worse - but if an appraiser can not see that it speaks to lack of competence and fancy charts or graphs cant; hide that - at least for now - in the coming years as the experienced appraisers and reviewers are gone from mortgage lending side without being replaced by a field rewarding only churn and burn, then who knows.

 

[Surf Cat]

Nobody is telling you to appraise it for 300k. We have no idea what is worth. IDK why you are relying on regression rather than searching competing area or back in time for pools or larger houses to see what they are selling for-to determine if pool truly has no value or the larger sf is a super adequacy or not, and if so - to what extent-

Man.... this thread is like pulling teeth.

Little tidbits of information....following bread crumbs along the way trying to decipher what the heck is going on.

It's taken nearly 50 posts to find out;

The op went back in time to 2018 to discover 50 sales that weren't remotely close to 1700 square feet in the subject's development. The average age of the dwellings within the development are 55 years old and we've yet to discover if going back to 2018 revealed if there were properties within the development that has a pool or not..... if that too, is an anomaly.

The op doesn't think it's worth 300K, and refuses to go outside the development to research if there are any larger dwellings or dwellings with pools to finish off the investigation / analysis.

Looks like the op drove in a ditch and is stuck....

 

[App601]

Man.... this thread is like pulling teeth.

Little tidbits of information....following bread crumbs along the way trying to decipher what the heck is going on.

It's taken nearly 50 posts to find out;

The op went back in time to 2018 to discover 50 sales that weren't remotely close to 1700 square feet in the subject's development. The average age of the dwellings within the development are 55 years old and we've yet to discover if going back to 2018 revealed if there were properties within the development that has a pool or not..... if that too, is an anomaly.

The op doesn't think it's worth 300K, and refuses to go outside the development to research if there are any larger dwellings or dwellings with pools to finish off the investigation / analysis.

Looks like the op drove in a ditch and is stuck....

Let me explain as best as I can
In Puerto Rico there are open developments and developments with access control
This is one of them
Most access controlled developments are newer properties and it would be an irresponsibility on my part to use one comparable from one of them to inflate a value.
Besides I have 8 comparable sales from the same development and plan to maybe use 6
Also I will still need 2 more sales. I will never. never appraise a property using sales from other neighborhoods when I have plenty of sales from the one in which I am appraising

A potential buyer can find a $300000 in other developments a get a much better house

As for the 2018 properties regression compensates for that with the CMS
If you have not taken a seminar or course in Excel Linear regression I strongly recommend ( with due respect no insult) that you take one as is gives you a range of the maximum and minimum values. In this case it is yielding a maximum possible value of $221000
This will not be my main form of valuation It will still be the DSCA but it is a strong support tool

Thanks and take care

 

[Fernando]

You know your market then.
If you can't explain the "overprice" then you might want to consider if there is something shady in the transaction especially with some creative financing involved.

 

[Mike Ault]

deleted

 

[Mike Ault]

duplicate

 

[glenn walker]

In all my years starting as a very young man I've never witnessed any appraiser try harder than this one to drive down a value by 30 %. It's almost like he's been hired by a valuation hit man or someone to kill the transaction. None of it makes any sense and what's the purpose ? What's the relationship to the buyer or seller? Nothing adds up in my analysis.

Personally if I was his manager I would fire him and take him aside and hand him a few phone numbers to some very good attorneys, because he's either unintentionally or intentionally entered the malpractice or calculated deception part of the valuation Twilight Zone.