Are we in another balloon?

[J Grant]

That chart denotes perfectly what happened There was a peak in 2008 the property values declined 20 to 30% and started to rebound in 2018
But could it happen again?

Of course, it could happen again. An asset can gain or lose value in the future for any number of reasons. We have seen these cycles in RE before and probably will see cycles repeat.

Some of the current market has a pyramid-scheme feel because a larger share is investor-driven, replacing owner-occupied use. I see lots of LLC sales or investors looking to rent out sales. Rental rates reach a saturation point, and when the rentals get too high and properties sit vacant, that can be the tipping point of a price decline. The future is unknown on so many levels - climate change, population growth, new construction costs, weather events, the effect of AI on jobs, etc.

 

[Mark K]

I was without powwer for months but that is another story

I think the idea of being without power for months could have an effect on values.

But it could a balloon happen again? Certainly. Some Black Swan event could have far reaching and unintended consequences that none of us can imagine.

Absent some event such as that, keep in mind that we are always in some type of balloon, inflating or deflating. Its the speed at which the balloon inflates/deflates is what causes the real problems.