false precision is false precision. You can put lipstick on that pig and call it artificial intelligence. It won't be truly accurate EVER because heuristics cannot be entirely quantified. Judgment is required. Not one single solitary "trader" in the pits doesn't act upon their gut instinct from time to time, regardless their quant background. Otherwise you end up like LTCM who bet on their own Nobel Prize winning formula to vet the Russian bond market and bankrupted themselves and nearly took down the financial system with it in 1998. If billions of dollars are at stake and they blow up, do you honestly think a simple program to do $400 appraisals is going to have the same level of computerized brains that these hedge funds that blow up do? People don't buy houses by the tenth of a foot. So detailed quantification is meaningless in that context.
www.cfainstitute.org
Yes, but it is very interesting ... I can safely make the statement that 99%+ of residential appraisers are effectively altering their sale prices for comparables, COMPLETELY UNAWARE OF WHAT THEY ARE DOING, by not constraining their subjective adjustments such as quality and condition by the residual. OR IN OTHER WORDS 99%+ OF APPRAISERS ARE PUTTING LIPSTICK ON THE PIG!!!
Funny you should mention.
Of course, I was just waiting for an opening.
And this one misstep in methodology is the MAIN reason appraisals are off target.
And it is the one reason that AVMs are as good as they are (i.e. the best of the breed AVMs) They don't engage in this foul practice!!!
PIGGY LIPSTICK. - Good name for it.
I would never make a good AI instructor. I'm too harsh. I set high standards and don't believe teaching should serve the primary interest of making more money for the AI, which, admittedly and unfortunately, has to worry all the time about going out of business in the face of the very aggressive/friendly RICS.
Now having said that, I can also say, an appraiser proficient in non-parametric statistics, who can deal with the likes of MARS or R-earth, who knows, above all, how to apply statistical models to appraisal, can produce far more accurate appraisals than the best AVMs. Understanding of course, that it takes more time and costs correspondingly more; but then again, the appraiser does far more than an AVM, such as verifying the condition and features of the property.
ALSO. Those dumb linear regression programs that are packaged with appraisal software need to be kicking out the residuals for each of the comparables - that the appraisers can refer to in making their subjective judgements. BUT, if those "fancy" programs do that, you will see high residual values resulting from the LOW R2 values of dumb regression programs THAT WILL MAKE THE APPRAISERS VERY MUCH AWARE OF HOW USELESS THEY ARE!! -- They may give you a value of $100/sf for GLA and $20K for bathrooms, ... but $200K for Quality/Condition for a $400K home. Then it brings home just how worthless those programs are. That's another kind of PIGGY LIPSTICK.