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Blind Squirrel and Acorns

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I am really surprised by your VP's opinion regarding the credibility of market value estimates included in BPO's versus appraisals. FNMA has proven the opposite of what you are stating. The appraisals are compared to both BPO's by agents connected to the subject and BPO's not connected to the subject. And their results show that appraisals are far more accurate. Do you know what exposure time frame the BPO's you are referring to use in their opinion of sales price?

A discussion of Exposure Time allows the intended user(s) of an appraisal to put the value opinion into context. It also serves as the foundation on which appraisers describe market conditions, analyze comparable sales, or reconcile an opinion of value to the actual sale price. There is a difference between marketing time and exposure time. Do you know the exposure time estimate in the BPO's your VP refers to? Is it the same exposure time in the appraisals he is comparing them to? How does he make the comparison? I would be very interested in having more details on the comparison analysis. Maybe more details could better support and explain his opinion. Like how many appraisals/BPO's he has analyzed along with some other details like exposure time and/or marketing times, etc...
 
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NLCApprMgr,

Good point re Realtors.

A good way to "test" the reasonableness of adjustments is to arrive at them by different methods, and see how the results line up. Ask RE agents. Of course, with market experience, that is already done and may just need refreshing. Do paired sales on the grid, adjust for other features, see what is left and extract out value for line item.

Do a rough cost estimate, look at how new or depreciated the feature is, and see how it relates then to what a buyer might pay relative to quality/price range.

Thus, if you do paired sales and extract a range of 8k-12k for baths,, and agents state buyers pay 10-15 k for baths, and it costs 18-20k to build a new bath or remodel,, and the home is depreciated, say 14 years old, then a bath adjustment between 10 and 12k might be the most supportable as the various methods point to that range and each act as support for the adjustment.

Good points. The unadjusted range is the best place to start, and from the buyers perspective makes the most sense. In my market, some areas that extra half bath is critical to the buying decision too.
 
The cost will be so affordable and the speed lightning quick that sellers will run one when they list the property for sale, the buyer will run one before they make an offer and the lender will run one for financing.

It will likely offer a fairly tight range of values, if required a "person" can visit the property, inspect it, take all the photos anyone would want and the range would be skewed to single point within the range.

The range skewed to a single point within the range... WHO gets to pick the point value from within this range? A person? What qualifies them? A computer? If a computer picks the range, who takes responsibility for that? SOMEBODY along the way has to sign off on, or approve the point value to develop the LTV and loan amount. To presume everybody will be happy with that point value, or that it will never be found faulty later on is preposterous.

If a buyer or seller thinks the property is worth more, the buyer will need to fund the shortfall.

What's to argue at that point?

"What's to argue at that point, the buyer will need to fund the shortfall "l....that's exactly the way it is now, if an appraised value is lower than the CS price, the buyer can fund the shortfall. But they often won't or don't, so why would that change with an AVM choosing the point value?

Will lenders tweak the outcome of a this auto program results if it is not delivering the results they want, aka too many "low " values with not enough deals made?
 
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The housing collapse did not occur simply because a number of people bought too high between 2005-2007. It occurred on such a large scale because of the cash out refinances, other loans against equity, and high limit HELOCS . The HELOCS were done with AVM's, as well as some other equity/refi products. And MANY of them over valued the properties... I had an AVM used on my house for a HELOC in 2006 and the value came in 100k over what I knew it to be worth.

When prices were crashing lenders started cutting off HELOC's. At that point no more borrowing against house as ATM cash machine, and the loans actually had to be paid back! (or kept accruing negative equity) And THAT is what sent many homeowners into default or short sale ( at the time it was mostly REO default, more lenders started working with borrowers for short sales later around 2010 after much blood was already spilled.

What happened during the boom, and the mishandling of REO's after shows that lenders can of course be extreme stupid , or reckless, in their decision making, and the same goes for corporate America, look at Enron. All the banks needing bailouts. These guys may be "smart" in having MBA's, but can make breathtakingly stupid moves, often in the name of greed or short term results over long term sound policy.

The use of BPO's speaks to me of short term results, as does outsourcing to AMC's and letting them pick the appraisers, with no auditing of the panel, which appraisers are assigned the work and why. Not all appraisers can do every kind of assignment well and an REO appraisal with addendum is a specific kind of assignment. As usual, many are shopped out to the cheapest appraisers with zero regard as to whether they understand how to do an REO appraisal well.


In and of itself, a BPO can be a good product, if the agent is good at it, and allowed proper time to do it (which means a proper fee for them as well). Same thing as an appraisal. It's who the appraiser is and doing the appraisal that matters.

BPO's suffer from the same problem that appraisals do...they have actually been around a long time, for decades, and used to have a decent fee for the agent or broker,....$75-$100. Like everything else, lenders got greedy, AMC's started ordering the BPO's, the fee to agent went from $75 to $50 to $40 to $25 . What kind of quality do they get at those low fees? Terrible. I know that from a bit of personal experience, as I looked into working for a BPO company after the crash (since default ordering turned in its wisdom to using BPO's). The way this company operated was astonishing. Runners did the photos at $5 each. The agents never saw the properties so had no neighborhood context or real idea of the condition. Then, of course, it was all about time....only getting paid $20, the goal was to do them as fast as possible, and the agents would throw any 3 comps, if they were over a mile away they would say they were under a mile and move the map location. If it turns out that a sale price of an REO is close to one among THREE BPO's ordered, how amazing is that.

An agent is doing a PRICE opinion, because that is what a BPO is. They wont'; develop market exposure, and will choose all comps by price, so of course their BPO for subject may sell at a close to target price, they chose the comps by price. ( appraisers are not supposed to choose comps only by price, though price can be considered, appraisers are looking for most similar location and feature/condition sales as comps to derive a value, expressed as a monetary $ amount probable price)
 
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NLCApprMgr-
The way you speak it is as if you think Realtors are the most knowledgeable people in the real estate field and they can be asked to justify almost any adjustment. Most appraisers I know have FAR more experience in terms of volume than even the busiest Realtors and they are who I call when I have a question about an odd ball. I have Realtors call me several times a year to pick my brain and/or they ask me questions when I call to schedule a listings. An average appraiser does 5 reports a week, a busy one does 7-10 (depending on how may hours/days they work). I have completed thousands of appraisal reports as most appraisers have once they have 10+ years under their belt, how many realtors do you seriously know that have sold thousands of homes? The vast majority of Realtors have a handful of listings at best and sell virtually nothing, it is just a part time job. I cannot tell you how many times I have talked to a realtor in an attempt to figure out how they arrived at a price or the square footage of a home when it is way off and they are so far out in left field it is comical. I called a Realtor this past Friday because their listed sq footage on a purchase I was appraising was off by almost 300 sq ft. I asked her how she determined her measurements. She told me she included the "pool house" (which was actually just a typical storage shed sold at Lowes, Menards, etc.) in the rear yard because it had drywall and electricity and a "home style door". Well the shed is just a shed and the shed was a 10'x12', not 300 sq ft. It is no offense to you or Realtors, but the vast majority of Realtors I run into are fairly clueless and get the vast majority or their information or opinions from another realtor or from themselves. I cannot imagine that you were a field appraiser and did not come to the same conclusion that only a handful of Realtors are actually all that knowledgeable. You have been at your job for four weeks and you come on this forum telling people how they should be doing their jobs, who they should confirm data from, how to support their adjustments through talking to realtors, how they should use their time, you reference in this post how most of the bankers think/feel..... How long were you an appraiser prior to getting your appraisal manager job at the bank? Some of the things you have posted over the past week or so have me questioning how much experience you really have. You thought VA appraisers set their own fees, you stated that the bank has no control or responsibility over the appraisers that an AMC hires, you stated that all of the info in a report is supposed to be verified by a "participating party", as opposed to a disinterested source as listed right on the URAR. Again, no offense meant, but maybe you need to sit back and get a little more seat time before you try to reinvent the wheel. If 95% of the reports you look at are all deficient in some area as you seem to speak, maybe it is your interpretation of how things should be done that is off. If the Vast majority of appraisers seem to be doing something the same way their peers are, maybe that is just the way it is done. An appraiser is judged in part by what their peers typically do in their individual markets. I have read reports from other states that speak of things I have never heard of in my market. You told someone in a previous post that if they get their report done "early" they should use that extra time to go back over the report and make sure this long list of things that you thought important were addressed. I don't know about other appraisers, but when I get one report finished 99% of the time there is another one laying there ready to be completed. No offense, but you sound kind of like one of those appraisers that was always waiting on the next assignment and had all the time in the world to work on each report. I guess what I am trying to say is that just because you did something a certain way or like something done a certain way doesn't mean that it is the right way or the way most appraisers and their peers in an individual market do things. What is standard/acceptable practice in Ohio may not be how it is done in another state or market that may have completely different data sources. For instance, most listings on my local MLS have 10-20 photos of the property, I was visiting an appraiser buddy in Florida and they had 2-3. I can learn a lot more looking at my MLS listings than he can his.
 
:beer:
NLCApprMgr-
The way you speak it is as if you think Realtors are the most knowledgeable people in the real estate field and they can be asked to justify almost any adjustment. Most appraisers I know have FAR more experience in terms of volume than even the busiest Realtors and they are who I call when I have a question about an odd ball. I have Realtors call me several times a year to pick my brain and/or they ask me questions when I call to schedule a listings. An average appraiser does 5 reports a week, a busy one does 7-10 (depending on how may hours/days they work). I have completed thousands of appraisal reports as most appraisers have once they have 10+ years under their belt, how many realtors do you seriously know that have sold thousands of homes? The vast majority of Realtors have a handful of listings at best and sell virtually nothing, it is just a part time job. I cannot tell you how many times I have talked to a realtor in an attempt to figure out how they arrived at a price or the square footage of a home when it is way off and they are so far out in left field it is comical. I called a Realtor this past Friday because their listed sq footage on a purchase I was appraising was off by almost 300 sq ft. I asked her how she determined her measurements. She told me she included the "pool house" (which was actually just a typical storage shed sold at Lowes, Menards, etc.) in the rear yard because it had drywall and electricity and a "home style door". Well the shed is just a shed and the shed was a 10'x12', not 300 sq ft. It is no offense to you or Realtors, but the vast majority of Realtors I run into are fairly clueless and get the vast majority or their information or opinions from another realtor or from themselves. I cannot imagine that you were a field appraiser and did not come to the same conclusion that only a handful of Realtors are actually all that knowledgeable. You have been at your job for four weeks and you come on this forum telling people how they should be doing their jobs, who they should confirm data from, how to support their adjustments through talking to realtors, how they should use their time, you reference in this post how most of the bankers think/feel..... How long were you an appraiser prior to getting your appraisal manager job at the bank? Some of the things you have posted over the past week or so have me questioning how much experience you really have. You thought VA appraisers set their own fees, you stated that the bank has no control or responsibility over the appraisers that an AMC hires, you stated that all of the info in a report is supposed to be verified by a "participating party", as opposed to a disinterested source as listed right on the URAR. Again, no offense meant, but maybe you need to sit back and get a little more seat time before you try to reinvent the wheel. If 95% of the reports you look at are all deficient in some area as you seem to speak, maybe it is your interpretation of how things should be done that is off. If the Vast majority of appraisers seem to be doing something the same way their peers are, maybe that is just the way it is done. An appraiser is judged in part by what their peers typically do in their individual markets. I have read reports from other states that speak of things I have never heard of in my market. You told someone in a previous post that if they get their report done "early" they should use that extra time to go back over the report and make sure this long list of things that you thought important were addressed. I don't know about other appraisers, but when I get one report finished 99% of the time there is another one laying there ready to be completed. No offense, but you sound kind of like one of those appraisers that was always waiting on the next assignment and had all the time in the world to work on each report. I guess what I am trying to say is that just because you did something a certain way or like something done a certain way doesn't mean that it is the right way or the way most appraisers and their peers in an individual market do things. What is standard/acceptable practice in Ohio may not be how it is done in another state or market that may have completely different data sources. For instance, most listings on my local MLS have 10-20 photos of the property, I was visiting an appraiser buddy in Florida and they had 2-3. I can learn a lot more looking at my MLS listings than he can his.

:beer:woohoo:clapping:
 
I am really surprised by your VP's opinion regarding the credibility of market value estimates included in BPO's versus appraisals. FNMA has proven the opposite of what you are stating. The appraisals are compared to both BPO's by agents connected to the subject and BPO's not connected to the subject. And their results show that appraisals are far more accurate. Do you know what exposure time frame the BPO's you are referring to use in their opinion of sales price?
The BPO's used on the default side of the industry typically have multiple values - a quick sale "as is" value based on an average marketing time of 30 days, an "as is" value based on the average marketing time for other homes in that particular market as estimated by the person completing the BPO (90-120 days in most cases currently) and an "as repaired" value based on an average marketing time (which if no repairs are needed is the same value) - since BPO's are essentially designed to be forward looking estimates of likely sale prices, marketing time, not exposure time applies

My VP of Loss Management is not the only person I have who works on the default side of the industry who has told me the same thing.

I am curious as to what your source of this information since the default files that I have seen from the GSE's all have included recent BPOs ordered by the GSE's but no appraisal report (aside from the one done at the time of origination) and there is no doubt that Fannie Mae utilizes BPO's much more in default servicing (including the valuation of short sales) than appraisals. If Fannie mae has really determined that appraisals are far more accurate as you state I doubt that they would still being using BPO's over appraisals, especially in short sale situations since they could easily force the potential buyer or seller of the property to pay for the cost of the appraisal.
 
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The properties were not listed and sold by anyone involved with the agents who did the BPO's, so no "magic" was involved.

There are a lot of smart people in cubicles but it does not mean that they do not get played by their 'inferiors' closer to the ground. But everyone is happy when the numbers line up. Someone gets a bonus, someone else gets more listings. Someone's probably losing the company money but the scale is just out of hand. Maybe their job is to just keep the process churning along with an acceptable loss rate.
 
The BPO's used on the default side of the industry typically have multiple values - a quick sale "as is" value based on an average marketing time of 30 days, an "as is" value based on the average marketing time for other homes in that particular market as estimated by the person completing the BPO (90-120 days in most cases currently) and an "as repaired" value based on an average marketing time (which if no repairs are needed is the same value) - since BPO's are essentially designed to be forward looking estimates of likely sale prices, marketing time, not exposure time applies

My VP of Loss Management is not the only person I have who works on the default side of the industry who has told me the same thing.

I am curious as to what your source of this information since the default files that I have seen from the GSE's all have included recent BPOs ordered by the GSE's but no appraisal report (aside from the one done at the time of origination) and there is no doubt that Fannie Mae utilizes BPO's much more in default servicing (including the valuation of short sales) than appraisals. If Fannie mae has really determined that appraisals are far more accurate as you state I doubt that they would still being using BPO's over appraisals, especially in short sale situations since they could easily force the potential buyer or seller of the property to pay for the cost of the appraisal.

I have a very reliable source. Heck, they even have held more than one class recently around the country for their BPO agents to teach them more about the appraisal process with the purpose of improving the quality of their BPO's. I don't know their across the board policies, but I know they use appraisals for both REO and short sell properties.
 
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A good appraisal will always be of more worth than a good BPO. It will always be more expensive to acquire because there is so much more work required. Financial institutions want to control expenses. Financial institutions only too often do not seek out the most qualified and competent appraisers for this kind of work, they get the cheapest they can find and burden them with turn times that are meaningless with this kind of work but encourage taking shortcuts. Unsurprisingly they are "disappointed" in the quality of the product received. It is a self fulfilling prophecy.

It is also a farce. Anybody with ample experience in the real estate field can logically see how this process will lead to this conclusion. A VP "discovering" the better value of BPOs versus appraisals they acquire is obviously ignorant of the real estate industry as it pertains to field work.

What he is discovering is that the BPO system allows for a more expedient disposition of distressed assets. At the end of the day, it may well be the best way to do it. Any money left on the table due to low BPOs estimates, for whatever reason, may be eclipsed by moneys saved by getting the non performing asset off the books quicker. If that is the case, at least be honest about it.

Don't come in here and tell us how appraisers gave up this kind of work. Sure there's a bunch of appraisers out there that maybe aren't real good at appraising, but there are plenty that are. If you really want competent, experienced, certified appraisers doing portfolio management assignments for you, they are available. You just have to choose them properly.
 
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