Bye-bye Excel?

[Terrel L. Shields]

Why was excdel better than Lotus 123? Or, why is Word bettter than Word Perfect.

I'll use my templates of 20 plus years in Excel and Word Perfect over the narrative software packages I've seen. In fact, 99% of what I do can be created in WP's internal table spreadsheet features that are 100x better than Word which can barely add and subtract.

 

[alebrewer]

MS Office 2010 til you pry it from my cold, dead, fingers.

I get that was tongue in cheek, but that sentiment isn't too far removed from the majority of appraisers - which is why we will go away. Not busting on you at all - you're just expressing a VERY common sentiment. We (the old guys and gals) are just at the confluence of rapid technological expansion in an industry comprised almost exclusively with ageing (55+) appraisers. It's inevitable really.

 

[azbassman21]

I get that was tongue in cheek, but that sentiment isn't too far removed from the majority of appraisers - which is why we will go away. Not busting on you at all - you're just expressing a VERY common sentiment. We (the old guys and gals) are just at the confluence of rapid technological expansion in an industry comprised almost exclusively with ageing (55+) appraisers. It's inevitable really.

This has been the problem for a while, along with Fannie's inability to adapt as well to allow appraiser's to be more efficient. I recently was driving to an appraisal, saw an old guy with a clip board and a wheel walking around a house. Came back by after my inspection, shooting comps, and getting gas and he was just at the front door, hopefully leaving. I assume his typing wasn't much quicker.

 

[Alsie35]

NEVERMIND .

 

[Alsie35]

Nevermind. These threads so tempt me sometimes ...

 

[alebrewer]

This is all true, AND - increasingly IRRELEVANT to me. I will ride my "Appraisal Express Train" long enough to retire, or at least semi-retire to where the Fannie's 3.6 "Abomination Upgrade" is not a threat. You see, when you reach the point where you no longer have to make X number of times over your carrying costs every year, but JUST your carrying costs (read: total living expenses), the extended times required for the coming new tech BS don't seem quite as much of a threat.

After that, whoever is left doing this can "knock himself out" with the "Cloud World"

Fortunately, I think a LOT of folks share your sentiment. I'm certainly in a position where I'm not too awfully concerned about whether there's an order on the fax or not (even saying that dates us WAY past any remaining economic life). I think many are in that boat - not quite ready to retire, but not too worried about whether the work will still be here in 4-5 years.

 

[cpursley]

Everyone things their home grown templates are great (sunk cost fallacy), but I can absolutely guarantee you that commercial appraisers using modern narrative software are 30-50% more productive and the reports more accurate out the other end.

 

[Ricky LaFleur]

I get that was tongue in cheek, but that sentiment isn't too far removed from the majority of appraisers - which is why we will go away. Not busting on you at all - you're just expressing a VERY common sentiment. We (the old guys and gals) are just at the confluence of rapid technological expansion in an industry comprised almost exclusively with ageing (55+) appraisers. It's inevitable really.

I wouldn't worry about the average age of appraisers, as long as Appraisal Institute, TAF and friends have anything to do with it. They'll be handing out certificates in large scale to full-ride scholarship PAREA grads shortly.

In a contrasting viewpoint, I am all but certain that heavy AI use will only make people dumber and less capable, as you've already seen example of that. You know how the generation that were adults when computers came to common use typically had much deeper understanding of how they actually worked? It's because they had to. They were able to learn and figure it out. Problem solving like that is not a common quality in today's generation (and I say that being of that younger generation). You can look no further than CNC operators today that can't even start to do what machinists of years past were able to do. It's because they didn't need to in order to get by. I also have a friend who asks ChatGPT to help him diagnose issues on his car. It's kind of hilarious. AI will just cause demand in different ways. The result, though, is a shortage of truly capable people.

Everyone things their home grown templates are great (sunk cost fallacy), but I can absolutely guarantee you that commercial appraisers using modern narrative software are 30-50% more productive and the reports more accurate out the other end.

Lots of large firm appraisers don't type their reports, rather they hire someone in India to do it.

 

[alebrewer]

In a contrasting viewpoint, I am all but certain that heavy AI use will only make people dumber and less capable, as you've already seen example of that. You know how the generation that were adults when computers came to common use typically had much deeper understanding of how they actually worked? It's because they had to. They were able to learn and figure it out. Problem solving like that is not a common quality in today's generation (and I say that being of that younger generation). You can look no further than CNC operators today that can't even start to do what machinists of years past were able to do. It's because they didn't need to in order to get by. I also have a friend who asks ChatGPT to help him diagnose issues on his car. It's kind of hilarious. AI will just cause demand in different ways. The result, though, is a shortage of truly capable people.

Possibly. Most certainly AI will command those professions/trades that require intensive data analysis or precise rote operations. However, I think there may be a resurgence in the 'manual' trades - which will require 'capable' people as well. IOW, as opposed to everyone becoming dumber, maybe we (humans) will figure out ways that we are better than AI and capitalize on that. Never underestimate the ingenuity of the human brain. Immoral and amoral to be sure - but heartily resilient nonetheless.

 

[cpursley]

You can look no further than CNC operators today that can't even start to do what machinists of years past were able to do.

And those CNC machines are much more accurate, reliable and quicker than producing standardized six sigma work than machinists. It's the one-offs where machines skill is still very important. I guess that begs the question: how much appraisal work is cookie cutter with standard inputs and standard expected outputs?

I also have a friend who asks ChatGPT to help him diagnose issues on his car. It's kind of hilarious.

That's actually great. Not everyone cares nor has time to be an expert on every topic. Helps them get another opinion before getting slammed with a huge repair bill. I've been programming for over 10 years and I use GPT or Claude all the time to remind me of all the little esoteric command line and codes I can't keep in long term memory.