RCA
Elite Member
- Joined
- Jun 27, 2017
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- California
I don't keep track. As members go on appraisal, you seem to be pretty honest. And I admit I am too blunt and to the point - but I expect people to be the same with me - so if I am wrong, I just blame myself and move on rather than worry about damage to myself. If I think I am right, the other guy insists otherwise, I am happy to pick a fight, and of course, that's not a good way to make friends. So, after a while, most just avoid arguing with me, which is OK, since I am too busy to get into arguments all the time or to get absorbed in historical conflicts that have fallen off the map, well, by and large. And what is it? So, where is this all going to end?
Well, like I have hinted, the reality is we live in a WC Fields World where the people at the top good or bad, probably moslty are bad, gather togeter like birds of a feather and circle their wagons to defend each other, rather silently, and they are kind of like the WC Fields of appraisal, they will take advantage of other appraisers, they will survive, they will freeze appraisal in its traditional clothing and carry on as long as they can, defending their practices and possibly taking on a few new habits if they can get their whole group to move along at the same time. And they will continue their journey downhill in so many ways. Yet they will be replaced, as will many other such groups across the economy. A good example is, I would say, the National Appraisers Forum. There are some good people over there, and honestly, there is some discussion. But they are circle-the-wagons in their behavior, they avoid change, they are mostly concerned with self-defence.
Appraisers Forum is pretty much open, Wild West, look out for yourself. That has its pluses and minuses. It can get reckless and out of control and scares many appraisers away. But I feel more comfortable here, in a way.
I like the truth, and I like discussing the truth. The truth is not easy to get at. In fact, the truth is complicated. It can be ugly, but it is often quite elegant and pretty like a damsel, nice and neat. When you have a good real estate model, you often get these simple patterns which do make sense when you are honest about things. Living area costs start high per square foot and typically decrease as you build larger structures, all else being equal. But things are rarely "all things equal". Higher-quality construction costs more per square foot, regardless of size, all else being equal. But then again, if they come out with some new, higher-quality, less expensive material, then maybe not. Then you have different room types, different designs. Different Neighborhoods and on and on. But MARS is very good at looking at this high-level, disorganized mess and extracting neat patterns. It is rather interesting.
Anyway, it is refreshing to occasionally bump into other appraisers eager to advance more in this direction. Most are terrified of getting the rug pulled out from under their feet. Of being ambushed by some other appraiser. So, there is this constant paranoia. But there should be. There are plenty of fat pigs out there who glory in the WC Fields character. They work in AMCs, I imagine a good majority of them, and of course, they are not necessarily appraisers. Anyway, it goes two ways: Either full automation of appraisal to reduce costs and ensure a guaranteed level of proficiency, or that with a new breed of proficient appraisers to monitor and enhance such a system. Probably the latter.
I think Collateral Value will become a new thing. The world is aging, growth is reversing, and the economy, in many respects, is going downhill, although with (only with) regard to automation, robots, and AI, probably in the opposite direction, if that is possible without people. Housing must go downhill with such population dynamics, probably for several more decades. This is not the 1950-2020 period. Now it is the opposite. Collateral Value becomes king. Predicting the future becomes a thing. I mean, really predicting it. A new kind of appraiser is going to be needed for that. Lending for housing will not work without the broke government somehow supporting it - and don't ask me how.