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Da market delinquencies.

Tom D

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
May 22, 2015
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Pennsylvania
The U.S. commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) delinquency rate rose again in July, marking its fifth consecutive monthly increase, reaching 7.23%, up 10 basis points from June. Here’s what you need to know from the July 2025 Trepp CMBS Research report:
  • Office Sector Still in Trouble
    Despite a slight decline, office delinquencies remain elevated at 11.04%, just shy of June’s record. More than $800 million in new office delinquencies were recorded, outpacing cures by over $150 million.
  • Multifamily Drives the Uptick
    The multifamily delinquency rate climbed 24 basis points to 6.15%, making it the only major property type with an increase this month. This sector deserves close monitoring, especially for appraisers working in urban or overbuilt markets.
  • Retail and Lodging See Modest Improvement
    Retail delinquencies dipped to 6.90%, while lodging fell to 6.59%, offering some signs of stabilization.
  • Mixed-Use, Office, and Retail Lead in New Distress
    Each of these property types logged over $800 million in newly delinquent loans, with July seeing 129 new delinquencies totaling $4.4 billion—well above the $3 billion in loan cures.
 
Man..... I don't know.... clean up the crime, homelessness, drug use, and lower the taxes to incentivize business to take up shop there. Get some chip manufacturing and Tech in there.

With AI coming on strong.... it's going to be hard to fill up those large buildings with people to pay those rents. Not just in Oregon, but lots of metropolitan areas.
 
Do you think more of these commercial properties will give up their current use and convert to housing?
 
Do you think more of these commercial properties will give up their current use and convert to housing?
That is certainly the most feasible use for many locations that I work in. Older office properties are exceptionally inefficient and residential construction has been ignored around here for decades, outside of a few growing communities. Many of these locations lack decent apartments to rent. There is always the feasibility aspect of conversion, but many office and downtown storefront properties are well-suited for apartment buildout.
 
Do you think more of these commercial properties will give up their current use and convert to housing?
I don't think so. Too hard and too expensive.
In my inner ring suburb they are building a buttload of "luxury" apartments, of course with some low income carve outs to get approvals and good financing
 
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