Data Cancer Due to Waivers

[George Hatch]

Judges and jurors aren't getting 10 hours of instruction on how the SC grid works and they aren't spending thousands of hours over a period of years with the data. Their frame of reference is going to be far more limited than what happens in a roomful of appraisers.

I've stood in MANY roomfuls of appraisers over the years - live and without an edit button - and I know from personal experience that if I say something stupid in front of appraisers they're going to scorch me for it in real time. Same on this forum - everyone here has expressed themselves freely when they have disagreed with me.

 

[Zoe]

Puppies are easy to train. GSE is asking for a big bite to America from a waiver puppy.

 

[George Hatch]

One more thing; the unit of comparison used in the SC grids when appraising SFRs is the sales price itself. Not the price/sf. With only the rare exception, most SFR appraisers aren't even trained on how to adjust price/sf indicators nor do they have any experience with that mode of analysis. Not because it's particularly difficult to do but because they don't need to do it. Similarly with the underwriters and reviewers. They're not running a supplemental analysis using price/sf either - because they don't need to.

 

[Zoe]

Judges and jurors aren't getting 10 hours of instruction on how the SC grid works and they aren't spending thousands of hours over a period of years with the data. Their frame of reference is going to be far more limited than what happens in a roomful of appraisers.

I've stood in MANY roomfuls of appraisers over the years - live and without an edit button - and I know from personal experience that if I say something stupid in front of appraisers they're going to scorch me for it in real time. Same on this forum - everyone here has expressed themselves freely when they have disagreed with me.

That rhymes with how heterogeneous many real property subject markets are.

Keep MV definition in back your mind.

 

[George Hatch]

That rhymes with how heterogeneous many real property subject markets are.

Keep MV definition in back your mind.

I think the most effective dataset that could be used to isolate for this one factor is a big condo project where all the 1bds are the same, all the 2bds are the same and all the 3bds are the same. Or a big featureless SFR subdivision with only 3 or 4 models and a small range of sizes. Whatever there is to see WRT waivers would be readily apparent when there aren't hardly any other variables to consider. With a dataset like that even a monkey with a dartboard (or a price/sf) could work.

Rinse and repeat a few times and then we can get to a more informed opinion on the issue. That's all any appraiser should want. IMO.

 

[Joyce Potts]

The $/psf is a general, macro approach or analysis. Once you drill down into the minutia is becomes less credible. No one is suggesting otherwise. That said, and I can't stress this enough, if it has absolutely no merit, then why goes the general public, realtors, etc., continue to embrace it as their first line of layman valuations?

 

[J Grant]

The $/psf is a general, macro approach or analysis. Once you drill down into the minutia is becomes less credible. No one is suggesting otherwise. That said, and I can't stress this enough, if it has absolutely no merit, then why goes the general public, realtors, etc., continue to embrace it as their first line of layman valuations?

The general public does not embrace it; they don't know any better.

RE agents are like used car salespeople, only worse -they use a misleading metric of total price divided by SF to get prices up and induce a high offer.

RE agents don't perform credible valuations nor do they need to = the make CMA's and presentations to support a price or get a listing. They are not valuators; they are salespeople.

 

[George Hatch]

The $/psf is a general, macro approach or analysis. Once you drill down into the minutia is becomes less credible. No one is suggesting otherwise. That said, and I can't stress this enough, if it has absolutely no merit, then why goes the general public, realtors, etc., continue to embrace it as their first line of layman valuations?

If your meaning is that appraisers should not look any deeper into any analysis than the happy homeowner then that's really saying something on a professional forum. As well, if your meaning is that appraisers should take his analysis at face value and without looking any deeper then that's also quite the sentiment to be expressing in this forum.

I don't follow any other online groups and I didn't go onto his platform to engage with his analysis there in front of his 600 viewers. Which BTW is 10x or more than the number of viewers for any thread on this forum. His analyses came to us, no different than when a news article pops up which is thin on facts. So I looked. Sue me for being curious about his dataset. If everything had made sense I would have said as much. That it doesn't make a lot of sense isn't my fault; it's his own fault.

You never answered my question. Now that you know a few more facts about these transactions and that the $40k difference between the highest price in that dataset *might be* attributable in part to the location does that have any effect on your own conclusions? Remember, listed at $410k and went under contract after 3 days exposure for $20k more.

If he had posted that map with the street names all blacked out, do you think that would have added to the discussion or not?

 

[Joyce Potts]

If your meaning is that appraisers should not look any deeper into any analysis than the happy homeowner then that's really saying something on a professional forum. As well, if your meaning is that appraisers should take his analysis at face value and without looking any deeper then that's also quite the sentiment to be expressing in this forum.

I don't follow any other online groups and I didn't go onto his platform to engage with his analysis there in front of his 600 viewers. Which BTW is 10x or more than the number of viewers for any thread on this forum. His analyses came to us, no different than when a news article pops up which is thin on facts. So I looked. Sue me for being curious about his dataset. If everything had made sense I would have said as much. That it doesn't make a lot of sense isn't my fault; it's his own fault.

You never answered my question. Now that you know a few more facts about these transactions and that the $40k difference between the highest price in that dataset *might be* attributable in part to the location does that have any effect on your own conclusions?

George, you seem to be far more geographically competent regarding Phil's analysis than I am.

 

[George Hatch]

George, you seem to be far more geographically competent regarding Phil's analysis than I am.

If that's the case between you and me then it's only because I actually looked at it. You could do the same if you had any interest in looking for yourself.

While we're at it, most regions in the U.S. have rural areas or semi-rural areas with various bodies of water. Including mine and especially including your's. So neither us has to send our kids to the same schools or shop in the same supermarkets as a local appraiser to have an idea of how any of that works. Especially when the comments in the MLS listings are making a big deal about it. The listing for that property includes 7 pics showing that feature.