Data Cancer found....

[Dublin ohio]

California was tough even during the good times and now with WAIVERS replacing a hefty portion of appraisals it will be worse - I don;t know your personal situation but I can not advise any person with a good amount of working years left to keep appraising with just a res license unless they already have a book of enough clients to keep them busy or okay with it part-time supplemental income

The waiver limit is $1M purchase price or value. With a median price in California of about $850,000 waiver use in much of California will not be possible

 

[chad hampton]

I doubt Phil will waste too much of his time on here. I only come on this board to talk **** to the handful of folks appear to advocate against this profession every chance they get.

I’ve been doing this almost 25 years, I really don’t have that many questions on how to appraise properties. If I did, I would call for one or two appraisers locally I know that I can trust to give me good advice.

 

[George Hatch]

I did not say you made that specific comment

I pointed out that you're arguing for pages about how disclosures wo n't change anything, and appraisers should call an agent if they want to find out implies a position. Perhaps re read your own posts to try to get a perspective on them.

You can't even keep your own untruths straight. You just accused me of it 5 minutes ago



Just because I don't think it will make a difference in the outcomes of these appraisals doesn't mean I oppose or discourage disclosure. You are extrapolating "I don't think it will make any difference" into meaning "I oppose and discourage". In error. If I had meant to say I oppose disclosure I would have said so directly. I don't know how many times I've told you to stop loading into my comments things that I never said. Or meant.

Consider this: if you have to untruth about what I say in order to make your point then maybe you should reconsider the merits of the point you're trying to make.



.

 

[Joyce Potts]

George, get over yourself. It's not about any errors. Appraising is not about a right or wrong answer. It's about who makes the more compelling argument. Like I said, it's easy to criticize--and on that same note, go into your own backyard and see if you can disprove Phil and enhance your criticisms. Like I said, there is no readily available market data on which to base a better or enhanced data set because the MLS's don't afford the 'waiver' disclosure.

I disagree with your assertion that his example was poor. Not sure how many residential assignments you do in a year, but finding a waiver sale within a tract / production development with more similarities is almost unheard of, at least in my Central and North Florida markets.

Oh, and 'F' your bracketing. The data set of which is speak is beyond rare. Go make your case with data from the markets you work in.

 

[Surf Cat]

Why would Phil Crawford waste his time? There's a reason I rarely post on this forum anymore. It's become a group of Karens.

Yet....here you are.

I think it's natural for birds of a feather to flock together. As you very well know, many of the posters here have put decades into this craft, vocation, profession, only to see it fading into obscurity. Like dock workers falling to automation. Yes, technology has taken its toll.

What I think is even worse, is the whole AMC debacle which started with the hvcc that just torpedoed this "profession". Instead of appraisers "raising their game", they put out a half-*** analysis with the first four comps from realist and boilerplate, ignoring the certifications and USPAP, because they're only getting paid $200 and have to turn it in 24 hours.... those reports are no better than a PDC going in and taking photos. Instead of being banned and having their license revoked, they're rewarded with more work. Hybrids, pdc's, waivers winning the day indeed.

It's hard to let go when you put so much time into something. So I suppose, the Appraiser's forum is like marriage counseling..... a place to vent, throw out a joke or two, make a snide remark, or make a humorous comment about a particular situation.

Getting back to the topic at hand though. Why wouldn't Phil Crawford who calls himself the "voice of the appraiser" not contribute on a topic about appraising on an Appraiser's forum that he started? Waste his time?? So is he just an attention who*e who will only talk about appraising on his show and not talk to other appraisers?

And talk about attention who*es... I started watching that market moves YouTube video. When that dude thanked Danny Wiley for lowering the rates.... I was out. I didn't even get to Wiley's comments. Those guys just want to be looked at on YouTube with their slicked back hair and good looks.

 

[Joyce Potts]

The most embarrassing part of that YouTube video was Mark Verrett ADMITTING his bias as to market condition adjustments and his hesitation to make positive / upward adjustments even when the market data supported otherwise. He's the poster child for the inherent bias that most appraisers have when it comes to their 'condom' attitude or false moral high-ground perspective that their job is to protect the client and buyer. That is an outright fallacy. Their job is to produce a credible, defensible, USPAP compliant valuation, and that's it.

The other notable comment Danny made was that they also keep a list of low ballers, not just the number hitters.

This industry is on its way out, with the exception of a few appraisers who are better educated, open minded and continue to hone their skills. The day of appraisers and firms who do 95% of lender assignments are long gone. Appraising is not the first industry / profession to face major challenges and diminished numbers due to technology.

There doesn't seem to be a single education provider that teaches classes in simple Excel export and analysis from MLS and public records. Sorry, but George Dell is in his own world when he sells classes on this topic and then expects every attendee to re-invent their wheel using Gnumeric. What a waste of time and money.

I don't see a single or small group affording any constructive leadership. Factor in low fees, and the lending industry did a stellar job in dividing and conquering.

And here you are.

I'm retired and couldn't have gotten out at a better time.

 

[George Hatch]

George, get over yourself. It's not about any errors. Appraising is not about a right or wrong answer. It's about who makes the more compelling argument. Like I said, it's easy to criticize--and on that same note, go into your own backyard and see if you can disprove Phil and enhance your criticisms. Like I said, there is no readily available market data on which to base a better or enhanced data set because the MLS's don't afford the 'waiver' disclosure.

I disagree with your assertion that his example was poor. Not sure how many residential assignments you do in a year, but finding a waiver sale within a tract / production development with more similarities is almost unheard of, at least in my Central and North Florida markets.

Oh, and 'F' your bracketing. The data set of which is speak is beyond rare. Go make your case with data from the markets you work in.

I'm not trying to prove or disprove his analysis or his conclusions. I am critical of his use of a waterfront property which isn't well bracketed as his poster child. Watching his vid it appears he's attributing the difference in pricing when compared to the others to the waiver. Without even mentioning the larger size and the water influence, whether he thinks it adds to the value or not.

And you can say "F the bracketing" if you want, but if we're trying to isolate an adjustment factor by group comparisons then it's not that helpful when 2/3 of a dataset aren't large enough to be considered directly comparable to our subject's size. You know this so I don't know why you're even arguing the point.

So now when you say these examples are almost unheard of in your area you are contradicting the prevailing criticism of waivers, that they'll force the pricing up via the data cancer thing. You might be right about them not being that common among the sales, but if you are then something has to give here - either they're common enough to move the entire market or they're so scattered or uncommon as to not be that big a deal.

The GSEs say they handle 60% of the mortgages and their October waiver numbers were apparently 13.5% of the purchases.

60% of 1000 = 600
13.5% of 600 = 81
81/1000 = 8.1% of all mortgages. Not counting the all-cash purchases, so the waivers represent an even smaller percentage of the total number of sales. This is in a discussion alleging waivers are basically driving the price increases in the market.

 

[George Hatch]

The most embarrassing part of that YouTube video was Mark Verrett ADMITTING his bias as to market condition adjustments and his hesitation to make positive / upward adjustments even when the market data supported otherwise. He's the poster child for the inherent bias that most appraisers have when it comes to their 'condom' attitude or false moral high-ground perspective that their job is to protect the client and buyer. That is an outright fallacy. Their job is to produce a credible, defensible, USPAP compliant valuation, and that's it.

The other notable comment Danny made was that they also keep a list of low ballers, not just the number hitters.

This industry is on its way out, with the exception of a few appraisers who are better educated, open minded and continue to hone their skills. The day of appraisers and firms who do 95% of lender assignments are long gone. Appraising is not the first industry / profession to face major challenges and diminished numbers due to technology.

There doesn't seem to be a single education provider that teaches classes in simple Excel export and analysis from MLS and public records. Sorry, but George Dell is in his own world when he sells classes on this topic and then expects every attendee to re-invent their wheel using Gnumeric. What a waste of time and money.

I don't see a single or small group affording any constructive leadership. Factor in low fees, and the lending industry did a stellar job in dividing and conquering.

And here you are.

I'm retired and couldn't have gotten out at a better time.

Ah, some scope creep in our argument. As in, not at all responsive to the discussion in progress. That isn't to say I disagree with your comments about "leadership" and related, but they have no bearing on what we're talking about. Unless your point is that we should give Mr Crawford a pass for how he does his analyses because "at least he's doing something". Which if that is your point I should think that helping him to do better would be a good way to support his attempts at leadership.

The topic here is data cancer. That's why I initially deleted my criticism of Mr Crawford acting like he had a gotcha about TAF repeating the point that they are not an advocate for appraisers. Which nobody who ever knew what they were talking about ever said they were. I thought that blatant strawman was a tangent which would distract from the main point of the discussion.

 

[Dublin ohio]

Just a factoid. The property in question was listed at $410K and sold for $430K, The smaller lake adjacent sale was listed at $339,900 and sold for $359,900. Another sale was listed at $325K and sold for $359K.

 

[Joyce Potts]

I'm not trying to prove or disprove his analysis or his conclusions. I'm critical of his use of a waterfront property which isn't well bracketed as his poster child. Watching his vid it appears he's attributing the difference in pricing when compared to the others is attributable to the waiver. Without mention of the larger size and the water influence, whether he thinks it adds to the value or not.

And you can say "F the bracketing" but if we're trying to isolate an adjustment factor by group comparisons then it's not that helpful when 2/3 of a dataset aren't large enough to be considered directly comparable to our subject's size. You know this so I don't know why you're even arguing the point.

So now when you say these examples are rare you are contradicting the prevailing criticism of waivers, that they'll force the pricing up via the data cancer thing. You might be right about them not being that common among the sales, but if you are then something has to give here - either they're common enough to move the entire market or they're so rare as to not be that big a deal.

The GSEs say they handle 60% of the mortgages and their waiver numbers are 13.5% of the purchases.

60% of 1000 = 600
13.5% of 600 = 81
81/1000 = 8.1% of all mortgages. Not counting the all-cash purchases.

Exactly how many residential assignments do you do? What you may think you're able to bracket, I just about guarantee that another variable is compromised--in the real world. You're arguing theory. Phil used a single real life example. Imagine walking into court on the opposite side and he puts those graphs and data up on the screen. You may have a theoretical point, but given the presentation and narrative, who makes the better case?

How can anyone truly know exactly how waivers impact market prices if Fannie/Freddie and/or NAR refuse to make waivers a searchable factor? I've been advocating for years, that if a comparable involved any kind of GSE financing, the closing statement SIGNED BY BOTH PARTIES should be made available to the appraiser(s), all confidentiality aspects notwithstanding.

Is one sale enough to move a market? I'm prone to believing that a high sale is more likely to be used by an appraiser in an assignment than a low one. You can't have it both ways, and we should both know that's a reality.

While one sale may not be enough to move an entire market, it may have very well influenced the next Realtor, buyer and seller-- and influenced the appraisers doing lending appraisals in that market thereafter.

What I love about statistics and the numbers you posted above, is that only 8.1% of all mortgages may be waiver impacted and in the big scheme of things, that's pretty insignificant. Until you're the guy who relied on the high sale, or the appraiser that used that sale as Comp #1. Then the stats become a little more personal than 8.1%. At that point, for that guy, the impact is 100%.