Declining? Only pending sale will tell.

[robert higgins]

Ok doing a non-lender, condominium Townhouse. Area is mostly multi families, other complexes in the area are old apartment style – inferior, high and mid-rise condominium’s – superior, not much to go by.

Subject is 1000 sq ft 2 bed, 1.5 baths average condition, sold 11/15/05 for $150k

All comps are 2 bed, 1.5 baths units, all in the same complex.

Sales over the last 12+ months:
1000 sq, ft unit 11/10/06 for 160k w/ 5k credit - 50 DOM
1256 sq, ft unit 12/18/06 for 165k - 52 DOM
1256 sq, ft unit 01/24/07 for 170k - 87 DOM
1256 sq, ft unit 02/08/07 for 160k - 78 DOM
1256 sq, ft unit 03/03/07 for 175k - 19 DOM

Pending
1000 sq, ft contracted on 10/22/2007 for 143k with 8k credit, net 135k. It was listed at 159k lowered to 149k 113 DOM. Talked to the agent, she stated unit did not have good foot traffic, but unit is in Avg./Good condition. Can tell in her voice market is not going well as buyers are having trouble getting funding just like this one and other buyers are just sitting on the sidelines waiting.

Therefore, what would you call it, declining, not much to go on as larger units are increasing but the smaller units are not, no other actives on either size units?

Thanks.

 

[Mike Boyd]

Robert....see my post under General Appraisal entitled "Lists might be available." Wells Fargo has a easy to read list about declining markets as does Citimortgage. Maybe they will provide you a list that you can use. Or, provide me the town and county and I will look at the copy I have and get back to you.

 

[robert higgins]

Thats is under the assumption I do business with companies that use AMC's, can you email me a copy? If so, I will PM you my email addy.

 

[Pamela Crowley (Florida)]

Pending
1000 sq, ft contracted on 10/22/2007 for 143k with 8k credit, net 135k. It was listed at 159k lowered to 149k 113 DOM. Talked to the agent, she stated unit did not have good foot traffic, but unit is in Avg./Good condition. Can tell in her voice market is not going well as buyers are having trouble getting funding just like this one and other buyers are just sitting on the sidelines waiting.

Here is your current market. I would use this to make negative time adjustments for your closed sale comps and base my final value opinion on this one pending. Yup, the 'declining' box now needs to be checked. What else are you seeing in the subject area for detached single family?

 

[Mike Boyd]

Thats is under the assumption I do business with companies that use AMC's, can you email me a copy? If so, I will PM you my email addy.

No AMCs involved with my post. These are direct lenders. Send me your email addy and I will forward the lists to you.

 

[robert higgins]

Here is your current market. I would use this to make negative time adjustments for your closed sale comps and base my final value opinion on this one pending. Yup, the 'declining' box now needs to be checked. What else are you seeing in the subject area for detached single family?

why you being so mean to me in this post?? I am not an idiot.
Inside joke.

Thats what me thinking, wasn't sure if most would but so much weight on a pending sale which is sticking out like a soar thumb when others are showing an increase in value, was just looking for support. Thanks

 

[cgjerdetu]

What about active listings or expired or withdrawns? If they all are showing lower asking prices than the closed sales, that would also be good support to check the decline button.

 

[Kevin A. Spellman]

Do you believe the one pending sale is the benchmark for your decision to state declining market? Are there are other complexes reacting in the same way. Is one pending a market-changing event? Would other practitioners either an appraiser or a sales person believe this pending sale is the beginning of a market-changing event. Is the pending sale a re-sale from the same period when your subject sold?

I would not let one indictor lead me to define the market conditions. I typically would seek additional clear evidence within a market segment and not just one complex. Look at the agencies within your MLS service and see how they sell/perform. Do they have low or high ratios between list and sales price? Do listings expire with these agencies frequently? Sometimes it can be the service providers and not just the overall market conditions that affect the prices. It is quite common for agencies to cut back on advertising and not putting dollars into listings in these market conditions. These are exercises I perform when I want to check the market conditions for a certain market segment. The market conditions we state in our reports is the measurement of performance of both the sellers and the service providers selling real estate.