Delicate problem

[Shawangunk RE]

I got an order for a purchase in an area in which a religious sect is expanding into. This sect has its own schools, medical centers, ambulance and fire in the township they are expanding from. They do not use the public school system. This area is predominately huge condo complexes.
My order is a single family home, in a neighboring township and in the past year, the sales of homes and land has exploded, with ever increasing sale prices, as this sect expands its area. These sale prices are far and away higher than sales of similar homes just a mile or so away. My subject property is in this township, but away from the immediate area in which the expansion is happening. If I use sales from the expansion area, my home is selling for well below what the comps show. The buyer and seller of my subject are not affiliated with this sect. Should I ignore the inflated prices and use similar sales from the same school district, but farther away??
I may be overthinking this as I am very aware of potential "bias" issues down the road.

 

[glenn walker]

Yes over thinking it and headed towards potential issues from appraisers hell.

 

[Shawangunk RE]

Yes over thinking it and headed towards potential issues from appraisers hell.

I neglected to check the township prior to accepting this order. I wont make that mistake again.

 

[Dublin ohio]

IMHO, i would stay away from the areas that this "sect" is "taking over". Too many if, and or buts that would be extremely difficult to quantify at the best, next to impossible to quantify at the worst

 

[lostinthezone]

I've come up with this locally in a couple of areas, not quite to your extent, but I think the principles remain the same. Best advice I can give is that you want to be very careful to ensure that the sales you select for comparison are sales that were openly marketed, preferable advertised on a wide basis such as the MLS and available to anyone to view and potentially purchase.

 

[TonyB]

Your first instinct is correct. You would not be providing a credible report using the other sales your referenced unless you calculate and support a location adjustment to them. Lord knows the heat maps that Fannie Mae underwriters use would identify the market differences and ask you to reevaluate due to being located in a market area with higher median sale prices if you used them.

 

[J Grant]

I got an order for a purchase in an area in which a religious sect is expanding into. This sect has its own schools, medical centers, ambulance and fire in the township they are expanding from. They do not use the public school system. This area is predominately huge condo complexes.
My order is a single family home, in a neighboring township and in the past year, the sales of homes and land has exploded, with ever increasing sale prices, as this sect expands its area. These sale prices are far and away higher than sales of similar homes just a mile or so away. My subject property is in this township, but away from the immediate area in which the expansion is happening. If I use sales from the expansion area, my home is selling for well below what the comps show. The buyer and seller of my subject are not affiliated with this sect. Should I ignore the inflated prices and use similar sales from the same school district, but farther away??
I may be overthinking this as I am very aware of potential "bias" issues down the road.

I find your post confusing wrt which township your subject is located in. Above, your subject is in a neighboring township to where the sect and high sale prices are? Is your subject township a place the "sect" is expanding to? My subject is in this Township- which Township? Perhaps rewrite the above with initials. Township A and Township B.

In your appraisal, you do not want to call the influx of people a "sect." Say something like: more people are moving into the area, and many buyers are purchasing in Township X, which has driven prices up in Township X. Additional people who want to live in the area are starting to purchase in adjacent Township Y ( and explain impact that has and/or any price differences between Township X and Y)

IDK what sect you mean , but some religions have restrictions on driving on certain days and want to be within walking distance of services, including a house of worship (if it is a religious sect), and thus location proximity is huge.

 

[Dublin ohio]

This sect has its own schools, medical centers, ambulance and fire in the township they are expanding from. They do not use the public school system.

So, who pays for all of these private services. Are they also paying for the public services? If they pay for both, the higher prices really seem to defy logic

 

[Shawangunk RE]

So, who pays for all of these private services. Are they also paying for the public services? If they pay for both, the higher prices really seem to defy logic

Hard to believe, but us taxpayers in NY subsidize all of it, every damn bit.

 

[Shawangunk RE]

I find your post confusing wrt which township your subject is located in. Above, your subject is in a neighboring township to where the sect and high sale prices are? Is your subject township a place the "sect" is expanding to? My subject is in this Township- which Township? Perhaps rewrite the above with initials. Township A and Township B.

In your appraisal, you do not want to call the influx of people a "sect." Say something like: more people are moving into the area, and many buyers are purchasing in Township X, which has driven prices up in Township X. Additional people who want to live in the area are starting to purchase in adjacent Township Y ( and explain impact that has and/or any price differences between Township X and Y)

IDK what sect you mean , but some religions have restrictions on driving on certain days and want to be within walking distance of services, including a house of worship (if it is a religious sect), and thus location proximity is huge.

Of course no mention of religion would be in my report. The facts are the facts, the recent sales in the area that are being purchased by members of this sect are selling for tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars more than similar sales less than a mile away. This area has been predominately rural, vacant land is being purchased, along with single and multifamily homes for ridiculous prices. I know what is driving this market, I am just not able to plainly state it because of bias laws. AI says to find another reason for the increase in sales and prices, but there is really no other reason. It is what it is. Sellers are getting very very lucky, their neighbors who dont want to sell not so much. This is blockbusting on a scale that is both protected and encouraged. Anyone who objects is doing so out of discrimination and bias.