Do We Predict Or Not?

[J Grant]

Clearly buyers have an eye on the future when they purchase- nobody pays hundreds of thousands to live in a house for one effective date lol. If a change in local economy happened one week prior or will occur in near future, the appraiser has to factor that into the analysis ( as buyers and sellers will in their decisions)

If such is the case we might need to make large market condition to the comps up or down...depending on if a major employer announced a closing or if Amazon announced an opening of HQ. However , we still opine MV as of an effective date.

In events such as a storm or fire or catastrophic event like 911, lenders usually call a halt to lending and/or insurers stop writing policies ( which halts lending ) . After some time after the immediate disaster has passed they resume. Then whatever damage occurred and aftermath activity is factored into the value ( and lenders re evaluate/update their already closed properties in area )

 

[J Grant]

Investors or contractors may swoop in and buy damaged properties cheap after an event but those sales are usually all cash and do not involve appraisals

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Obviously you would have to use Extraordinary Assumptions and Hypothetical Condition together.

A prospective date only requires an E. A. as of that future date it will not be contrary to what exists. If you believe otherwise take it up with the man who explained that to 300 appraisers in Arkansas, Mark Lewis...yeah, that Mark Lewis

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Effective Date is "present"

two minutes from now it the future.

 

[Deleted member 152047]

Nice forum all, interesting arguments all around. Made me take a step back and think.....that is always fun and sometimes painful.

 

[Renee Healion]

What an opportunity to sign your name with a minute stamp (and millisecond for the especially frightful). I think the largest software vendor tried to sell those for years. Some bought that option. Survey them and see if signing their names to whatever part of a minute saved them from ruin. Go ahead, make a poll. Make it flawed.

 

[Renee Healion]

"As of this millisecond, I hereby deliver my report of an appraisal with an effective date that has (safely) passed."
A caution to Digger who delivers in two hours on the effective date.

 

[Meandering]

"As of this millisecond, I hereby deliver my report of an appraisal with an effective date that has (safely) passed."
A caution to Digger who delivers in two hours on the effective date.

But even in this millisecond, you're not standing in front of the property to know it is there.

But without regard to timing, the very definition of market value, calls into play a prediction, which is that your opinion will be the most probable reaction by the market to the property. Doesn't mean it will happen at that number.

.

 

[Renee Healion]

Marion, the effective date is before the report date, so we know what transpired on the effective day. And we are required to have good recordkeeping showing every version of our report. I can't believe that this is a reasonable concern.

Include a selfie of yourself in front of the property holding a newspaper printed on the report date.

 

[Tim The Enchanter]

I predict the sky is not falling.
Bu, the gov't in it's infinite ignorance is trying to turn us upside down and shake the money out of our pockets. Again.
OK, that's not a prediction.
I predict there will be more saying F'it and staring at the moon.
And driving for Lyft or Uber.