ERC forecasting

[smac2]

doing an ERC. neighborhood has about 21 months of inventory. struggling to remember the methodology for calculating a reasonable forecasting adjustment. any experienced relo appraiser's with a hint?

 

[Rufus]

This thread has some good information:

Forecasting Adjustment

You can also use the 'search' button to find other discussions about forecasting.

 

[Ray Miller]

With that much inventory and the way the market is headed be sure of your numbers. It is a tough way to go now. The link is a good link to follow.

I have been lucky the past 12 months and my value for my ERC have been right on. This last one the home owner is ready to kill me, but??????????? It is what it is and it had been on the market already for 18 months with no lookers. Guess he thought he could s c r e w his employer the USDA.

 

[Doug in NC]

As discussed in the prior post, forecasting is a very difficult number to apply (especially when you have a market with 9 plus months of inventory). If you don't get it right, you are going to be more and more off the higher the supply. I look for trends in pricing over the course of a sale's listing period. Compare a longer listing with properties that sold more quickly to get an idea of the discount needed to get your subject to sell more quickly. Looking at the most recent sales and pending sales is going to give you the best information. Forecasting is by no means an exact science.