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Evaluations 1, Appraisals 0

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Terrel L. Shields

Elite Member
Joined
May 2, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Arkansas
I ran into a banker I've known for 20 years, but who I have not seen for over a year. He was promoted to do credit analysis for the loan department and was shifted from his Loan Officer job at a smaller branch bank. This bank uses mostly evaluations. So eventually I got around to the subject and prices.

He said that evaluations "as far as I am concerned, are not worth the paper they are written on..." That was a quote I remember verbatim. But he went on to say, they met the compliance requirement of the bank holding company (powers that be) and they wanted faster reports and wanted to save the borrower money (more on that later).

He also said the loan officer inspects the property and photographs it, describes the surrounding properties, and includes an interior, front, rear, and street view. These evaluators charge $175 but are ordered thru an ordering system (AMC? Portal?) and the ultimate cost to the borrower is between $200 and $300. They offer the borrower the opportunity to pay extra for a bonafide appraisal and the end cost is $400 - $500 for an appraisal. (Most appraisers here are from $350-450, I don't see many charging more except VA.)

He said that he didn't agree with management but it was not his call. He felt the loan officers actually were left with less information upon which to make a lending decision because he didn't see the evaluation as aiding in the decision to lend. Credit history and credit score are more important along with income history.

He said his bosses were anxious about competition and in some parts of their bailiwick, particularly around Bentonville and Walmart people, they felt if the loan process was taking more than a week or so, these folks were likely to bail out and use Quicken on line or something. And he said the evaluation was usually a bit quicker "most of the time." His final remark was the more amusing. He said that at board meetings the head honchos always expressed a big concern about saving the borrower money when it came to title work or appraisals and always liked to emphasis that the evaluation was a good selling point with borrowers about how they kept fees low. Then he chuckled, "But when it comes to our origination fees, $2,000 is just fine..."
 
IMO, our profession should seriously consider the merits of including some historical context for the current values. I mean, if I said that the top sale prices in this market segment previously peaked in 2007 at $400k, dropped to $250k in 2011 and are now at $370k that could provide some context to the reader for my $360k valuation on the subject. Or If I said the GRMs from 2007 were between 190-210 and are now 150-160 that might convey a very different context for my $360k value than if I said the current GRMs are in excess of 200.
 
Case-Shiller National.gif


It appears to me that home values on a national scale has exceeded its prior peak and has increased significantly from the bottom.

Checked my home in California, I not only sold it at more than last peak but according to Zillow, Trulia and others, the value is 5% higher than when I sold it in January 2017.

When the downturn happens, .... there will be lots of underwater mortgages.
 
View attachment 35007


It appears to me that home values on a national scale has exceeded its prior peak and has increased significantly from the bottom.

Checked my home in California, I not only sold it at more than last peak but according to Zillow, Trulia and others, the value is 5% higher than when I sold it in January 2017.

When the downturn happens, .... there will be lots of underwater mortgages.
This index actually peaked in Q2 2006 at 185, but point taken! I would include graph but am on phone as I type.
 
View attachment 35007


It appears to me that home values on a national scale has exceeded its prior peak and has increased significantly from the bottom.

Checked my home in California, I not only sold it at more than last peak but according to Zillow, Trulia and others, the value is 5% higher than when I sold it in January 2017.

When the downturn happens, .... there will be lots of underwater mortgages.

Median home prices

1965 - $$20,200
2000 - $165,300
2018 - $328,600

Annual percentage change

1965 - 2000 = 6.22% per year
2000 - 2018 = 3.89% per year

I think by 2035 the the annual percentage change from 2000 - 2035 is probably going to be about 6%, similar to 1965 - 2000. Got a lot of catching up to do.
 
IMO, our profession should seriously consider the merits of including some historical context for the current values. I mean, if I said that the top sale prices in this market segment previously peaked in 2007 at $400k, dropped to $250k in 2011 and are now at $370k that could provide some context to the reader for my $360k valuation on the subject. Or If I said the GRMs from 2007 were between 190-210 and are now 150-160 that might convey a very different context for my $360k value than if I said the current GRMs are in excess of 200.

upload_2018-4-18_19-18-34.png

I agree with you 100%. I do it like this.
 
According to Census data (Table H-3) for the 3rd and 4th quintiles of household income

$166,500 = 3.91x the 3rd quintile and 2.51x the 4th quintile in 2000

$257,400 = 5.15x the 3rd quintile and 3.25x the 4th quintile in 2007

$310,900 = 5.25x the 3rd quintile and 3.27x the 4th quintile in 2016 (which is where my income data source stopped)


Just sayin'
 
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