Falling Out - More Appraisers Quit

[George Hatch]

I think it's a fair question, as UAD aside, this market we face,, it now takes twice as long to finish a report and identify sales types etc. And to be honest, the speed at which we used to do reports in less complex markets should have been slowed down.

I ask because a number of recent posts from GH, who I respect, are relating to calls for greater speed aka supporting the high volume 10 a week staff model, and now supporting automated data runs, both of which are antithetical to developing supported and credible values in changing markets and complex markets and with greater SOW and liability in play now.

I fear you are reading intentions into my comments that I didn't express.

My comments about automating parts of the appraisal research and reporting aspects of an assignment merely reflect the reality that the tech is moving forward that enables the appraiser to accomplish many of the SAME tasks they've been doing in that process to the SAME degree as if done manually, only with less time and effort.

You need to ask yourself:

Does it really take a $75/hr appraiser to transcribe from various databases into your reports 3/4 of the contents therein? Of course not. A $10/hr data entry clerk or an automated system can do it just as accurately. Now mind you, that system probably can't update or correct erroneous data based on what you came across during the course of your assignment, but in terms of copying an address or a map reference into a field on your report form, these activities don't require a $75/hr skillset to do that.

If you were spending less time on drudge work could you afford to spend more time on the technical aspects? Probably so. Could you look at the same data you would normally use but in additional and different ways if the tech made it faster and easier to do it? Probably so.

I didn't say anything about turning over your opinions or conclusions to the machine. At the time I built that 1004mc worksheet in Excel most people were faced with spending a minimum of an hour running several MLS runs with different dates and effectively being unable to provide answers to some of the fields. The tools I and others built for that analysis turned that manual clown car circus into a 3-minute process that's more accurate on a consistent than most people would be able to do manually even once. You run a single search on your MLS system and download the data therein; and the worksheet decides which of those records fit the criteria for which periods and ignores all the rest. Literally, if I know what I'm looking for in terms of comparable properties I can run the search and get the result in 3 minutes or less. i assume most residential appraisers are using a similar tool to similar effect, and I actually feel bad for the people who paid for it.

BTW, I built that tool and distributed it for free to anyone who wanted to download it FOR YOU guys. Not for me, because I don't even do those assignments.


Besides, that worksheet was just about running the numbers. It is always up to the appraiser to analyze and come to their own conclusions about what those numbers do and don't mean. So instead of spending one hour on the process and 3 minutes on the analysis, these tool enabled their users to spend 3 minutes on the process and 3 minutes on the analysis if that's what they were going to do; or to spend 3 minutes on the process and 30 minutes or more on the analysis and still come out ahead for the people who were going to do that.

Now do I think that MC analysis actually adds anything in most assignments? Not really. Fannie was starting from scratch on statistical trend analysis on that form and they had to start somewhere. The only thing the worksheets do is populate the grid and provide the statistical results. It doesn't make up for problems in the data itself nor does it make any decisions or draw any conclusions. It's just a calculator.

From what I've seen the datasets seem to be too small most of the time to yield conclusive results. But the point is that the tech does enable the APPRAISER to spend more time analyzing the data than handling it, even if the end result is that such an analysis will be inconclusive due to the lack of sufficient high-quality data. Even demonstrating that the data is wonkey has value in demonstrating why you gave more weight to the smaller-but-better-quality dataset in the GSE grid that you based your value conclusions on.

Yeah, I think if you had access to the tools that enabled you to spend less time on the clerical part it would save you some time, regardless of the development process you're using. I think if the tech made it easier for you to look at the dataset your using in different ways you'd consider increasing your SOW that way for some assignments.


Your heartburn with what the market is currently accepting as reasonable content from certain vendors is a disagreement with market attitudes. You don't like it when I point out the reference about credibility being tied to intended use or that not all assignments require the same level of development or reporting. It's as if you forgot that the market has always ordered appraisals using different SOWs and different reporting requirements since long before I picked up my first 100yd tape measure.

Don't allow your distress at the current business environment for fee appraisers blind you to the fact that our profession exists to meet the legitimate needs of the market, not the other way around. The market does not exist to provide you with the lifestyle to which you apparently feel entitled. If you can find a way to meet both sets of requirements then I'm sure everyone will be happy for you. But if something is going to change I sincerely hope it isn't our profession's role in society.

The market does not exist to consume as many $350 URARs as we can hack out. It doesn't owe any of us anything. I'll tell you something else, too. If the business of appraising turns into a $10/hr job because the people who let you in whenever you came in or who let me in back in 1985 were greedy opportunists, well then that's just the way it goes. Maybe we should have made different choices.

 

[David Mescon]

That's fine on a personal level or to her friends, but she is representing herself in public venues, on the internet, in professional trade journals, and most likely to legislators as an appraiser, with the inference being that she is an active, licensed appraiser.

I wouldn't even mind that she does that, execpt that her whole mission is about transaprency, and mis representing yourself is the height of non transparency.

A doctor that gave up his license or had it stripped might think of themselves as forever a doctor, and may be one in the eyes of close friends...but if they were writing articles for publication in medical journals and signing off using the title "doctor", and making public speeches and writing perscriptions using a no longer valid MD identity, they would be charged with fraud.

J - Joan is a self-professed criminal. how anyone can possibly ascribe even the smallest level of credence to anything she says is completely beyond me. She has been asked to address this MAJOR deception numerous times, but of course, like any blowhard, has evaded the hard questions. She is nothing more than a manipulative, self-serving parasite. Why anyone is even wasting any more time communicating with her completely escapes me. This habitual criminal will continue to deceive others and enrich herself as long as she has an audience.

The deflection of the hard questions, the risking of the lives of innocent people on an ongoing basis so as to make her life more convenient demonstrates nothing but a complete contempt for both the laws of our land and the well being of others - these are the actions of a morally and ethically bankrupt individual. She should run for president or some other high office - she seems to possess all the requisite qualifications. I will continue to exert what little influence I have - one person at a time, in an attempt to make some small positive difference in the world. If enough of us do this - and shun those who continue to behave in selfish and dispassionate ways, perhaps things will slowly begin to change for the better.

 

[Pittsburgh Pete]

J - Joan is a self-professed criminal. how anyone can possibly ascribe even the smallest level of credence to anything she says is completely beyond me. She has been asked to address this MAJOR deception numerous times, but of course, like any blowhard, has evaded the hard questions. She is nothing more than a manipulative, self-serving parasite. Why anyone is even wasting any more time communicating with her completely escapes me. This habitual criminal will continue to deceive others and enrich herself as long as she has an audience.

The deflection of the hard questions, the risking of the lives of innocent people on an ongoing basis so as to make her life more convenient demonstrates nothing but a complete contempt for both the laws of our land and the well being of others - these are the actions of a morally and ethically bankrupt individual. She should run for president or some other high office - she seems to possess all the requisite qualifications. I will continue to exert what little influence I have - one person at a time, in an attempt to make some small positive difference in the world. If enough of us do this - and shun those who continue to behave in selfish and dispassionate ways, perhaps things will slowly begin to change for the better.

Come on--don't sugarcoat it--what do you really think?

 

[David Mescon]

Come on--don't sugarcoat it--what do you really think?

Thanks Pete. I wish I had the answer. I wish anyone had the answer. You commercial guys ought to be ok for the foreseeable future, but no matter how many scenarios I play out in my little mind, I don't see anything but a catastrophic train wreck ahead for the residential appraisal sector.

Many on the forum have suggested learn commercial appraising, but the fact is, most residential appraisers don't have the particular kind of smarts necessary to be a competent commercial appraiser. Try as we might, it's like a pair of pants that's too tight. Although I have a lot of commercial experience, most of the commercial sub-disciplines do not come easily or naturally to me. Year after year, it was always a push to do that work. Even a rocket science type super complex residential appraisal is much easier to me than a simple mixed use retail/warehouse center. Conversely, (yeah, I know this is controversial), most commercial appraisers tend to lack the intuitive ability necessary to be a truly good residential appraiser. They have all the knowledge, but often fall short in the application and end up relying to heavily on the quantitative. We're not all good at everything, (well I'm not, at least), and that ought to be ok. I have met a small handful of appraisers through the years that are really good at both commercial and residential appraisal, but only a few.

 

[J Grant]

George, I agree there are some tools, or paid assistants, take your pick, that can relieve appraisers of some of the tedious aspects of the job, re data input. Of course today's fee structure does not pay the typical res appraiser enough to have an assistant, so that idea is a wash, but of course open to anyone who can make arrangements (the lucky ones have a spouse/family member that assists for love alone...)/ As far as technical programs, yes, they save a few minutes here and there, but somehow something else always crops up to compensate for the time gained.

The rest of your post don't have time to address...that is an ethical question as to whether the res appraiser will have sufficeint value to the client...a question in transition at the moment. I personally think that really good res appraisers have a lot to offer, and the compensation and recognition are slowly coming back.

The res appraisal profession, and the nation as a whole is reeling from trauma. A lot of people are reeling from it as well. This is an unprecented time in American History. Dickens said, "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. " I think for many people, the current economy and general social malais makes it, "The worst of times, and the worst of times". Hard to predict a good future in such a gloomy present, yet I do think over time the future will slowly offer a few more doors of opportunity.

The previous market cycle and the present market cycle are both extreme, and unlikely to be seen again in or decades, if ever.

 

[Meandering]

J - Joan is a self-professed criminal. how anyone can possibly ascribe even the smallest level of credence to anything she says is completely beyond me. She has been asked to address this MAJOR deception numerous times, but of course, like any blowhard, has evaded the hard questions. She is nothing more than a manipulative, self-serving parasite. Why anyone is even wasting any more time communicating with her completely escapes me. This habitual criminal will continue to deceive others and enrich herself as long as she has an audience.

The deflection of the hard questions, the risking of the lives of innocent people on an ongoing basis so as to make her life more convenient demonstrates nothing but a complete contempt for both the laws of our land and the well being of others - these are the actions of a morally and ethically bankrupt individual. She should run for president or some other high office - she seems to possess all the requisite qualifications. I will continue to exert what little influence I have - one person at a time, in an attempt to make some small positive difference in the world. If enough of us do this - and shun those who continue to behave in selfish and dispassionate ways, perhaps things will slowly begin to change for the better.

thanks Dave.

Maybe its displaced aggression that keeps some posting about her. Maybe it's the thrill of the game to get her to trip up and produce more lies.

Maybe it's the thought that for the price of a full page ad in the Washington Post you can print "Hey Washington get a clue, Joan Trice is NOT an appraiser", Just cause you can.

Anyway, if you ignore these types they fester, grow, and multiple in the dark on their self emitted manure, like other fungi that needs to be bleached out of the gene pool, it must be dealt with whenever it rears its ugly head into the daylight.

 

[JSmith43]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times

Foghorn Leghorn wasn't using original material in that GEICO commercial?

 

[DMZwerg]

3 comps on a grid and matched pairs was kind of dumb when i started appraising in 1981. We live in a data rich world.

Lenders are asking you to manually type a bunch of comps on a grid. What if you could in an automated way have 300 sales to analyze.

300 sales to analyze??? In what fantasy world are you living?

Let us look at just ONE of the cities I do appraisals in, namely the City of Racine, Wisconsin. In a one year period there were 567 sales of single family residential properties. Of that at least 313 were distressed leaving 254 sales. That isn't one neighborhood, or one type of home, or even one "market", and it surely isn't just properties that are even remotely comparable, that is for the entire city of over 90,000 residents. So how on God's green earth would I be able to pull in "300 sales to analyze" even using automated methods when: a) 300 non-distressed sales don't even exist, b) there are neighborhoods in Racine where prices change street by street, c) the city has a great diversity of designs/styles, ages, sizes, and types of properties.

Let me put it this way, driving the standard route to/through downtown my brother (also an appraiser and formerly a student of architecture) recognized no less than half a dozen Frank Llyod Wright houses, many of which from when he was with Sullivan. He also noticed a few post-Wright Prairie style homes as well as a couple of round brick homes, a number of Victorians and Folk Victorians, Georgians, and so forth, plus dozens of other styles running from the 1860's to modern, all along one route through Racine. Yep, a computer is really going to be a great help in discerning all those myriad differences ... NOT!

The only place such automated methods would be of use is cookie-cutter-ville, and there such would be the most redundant.

Oh, BTW, my original training was as a computer programmer so I am a little more than a bit up on automated valuation methods and thus know and have greater respect for the human element and how machines can create garbage out all day long without the operator having an inkling that it is happening as too many people who utilize machines literally trust the machine to do things right.

 

[DMZwerg]

AVMs should be justifying their results to the clients, not the appraiser. The system is completely backward.

AVMs are the LEAST "transparent" process as "the machine" makes decisions the operator is usually not even aware of. I remember having a discussion about that with a broker while I was going through a RE sales class. He could not understand why I stated the machine was not even as accurate as the person using it.

Until they recognize themselves as the problem, this will not change. As long as they send work to the lowest bidders, thereby putting their own profit above anything else, this will continue. A "data rich" report won't change that.

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. - Mark Twain.

<blank> straight, especially the Mark Twain quote. Too few people realize how statistics can be so easily "massaged" by how the questions are asked, to whom, where, and in what order. Same is true for AVMs, as the operator can "choose" (even unintentionally) to "ask the questions" differently and thus greatly skew the results, often never even seeing the "plethora of data" they are using or ignoring. Terrel is also correct about the veracity of the data used/scanned in the first place. For example, in some areas, the local county website may spell out finished areas on each and every floor, including basement, but lump ALL the finished areas together as GLA INCLUDING finished basement areas. Other areas may include finished basement if and only if it is a walk-out basement. In either case most listing data will record GLA "as per tax record" (meaning the county tax, etc.) and thus a house may appear as up to twice the size it actually is, thus skewing data. This can be further complicated if the operator is using mailing addresses as, in the case of Burlington (which can refer to the city or the township) the properties could be in any of 9 townships in 3 counties each of which may do things slightly different or have different availability of information. I really want to see the Cray computer Trice is expecting to run the beefed up "AI" AVM program to check all those sources and discern all of the differences in sufficient time to save appraisers time in doing it with their merely human brains, as well as the multiple GB reports that "complete transparency" would require!

 

[J Grant]

I agree with your excellent description of how "off" statistics can be, as well as the results of an AVM.

Not to mention the fact that an appraisal is not a math question, and thus cannot be solved by mathematical means. Math ends up proving itself, in that sense the results are "accurate", the problem is, the result may have little relation or relelance to a market supported and credible value.