I agree that the guvmint is not the best organizer but having been in the Marine Corps I can only say that the Gmen aren't bad in a total crisis, and we have one here. Older,greyer, and more level heads prevail in such situations. The greedy pups are on the way out. This bodes well for reality based people and adherence to the standards that got us through about 80 years.
Being a fairly reactionary animal the guvmint ususally opts for knowns in a crisis for political reasons if nothing else. The Gmen like appraisers and appraisals. We were spawned due to the "Great Depression". The bankers hate us and want our money. They had their way with us for some years now and that will lessen as they are hauled before congress and then out to the woodshed for a proper asswhoopin. Greed and lack of objectivity drove this train and that my friends, while everpresent, will be lessened for a considerable period of time.
Incredulousness is healthy but synicism has no place in the face of this national nightmare. It is our job to show a cohesive and unbending adherence to what we all have signed on for. We want nothing more than an opportunity to do the job for which we have been trained and at a fair wage. We guard the vaults. We protect this country and it's systems. Pompous statement? I don't think so. It is reality. We keep the crooks from taking advantage of the system. Historically the lenders used us to protect their money, not some fee driven scheme.
Well the game ball has been taken from the field. It is back to basics. Bankers lending their money and being scrutinized as never before. They will hire us to protect their jobs if nothing more. As my old boss used to say, "lawyers and such go through the front door, and we go in the side door but we are invited to the party in any event."
As I see it playing out once the smoke clears we will be used as never before. We will be subjected to scrutiny yes, but everyone will want someone to take the beat down if one is to occur and that has always been our job until recently. An old MAI once told me when I asked him what appraising was really about, he said, " it is getting to the number, signing it and having the guts to defend it."
I have never experience the environment we are in but having been in this business for a very long time I know one immutable fact. Every time we reach a critical point in the cycle more opportunities come from it for the appraisal community just as it does for general real estate. It is a natural purging. You can depend on a few things in this business. Greed, various attempts to circumvent the system, and people being people trying to make a quick buck.
We handle a very static part of the system. Illiquid and as such it is not easily convertable to cash. Natural rules prevail and no technology or creative vehicle exists that can transmute the rules. You can bend them for awhile (leverage) but in the end they will bite your tail off. The lenders are bobtailed for quite awhile.
The next few years will form an indelible scar on this country IMHO and one which will not be soon forgotten. As we all know everyone is an expert on real estate when it is going up. Not so easy to call on the re-entry phase. The appraisal world is skipping off the atmosphere now. Getting back to earth takes time. This is the doldrums while the system is in flux. Been here, done this. But when we get back to business, and we will, be prepared for it.(survive this time) We have a lot to do and believe me we are in for a lot pain but more calls will come and more questions along with it. Get the number, sign it and be ready to stand behind it. We will be tested again.
