FED left rates unchanged

[Dublin ohio]

I look for FTC to get involved with grocers if fast food is able to cut their costs so much and it is not showing up in major groceries.

What fast food company is cutting it's costs so much?

 

[Charles West]

The CPI/PPI unrevised print is out this week, and that should determine where the Fed goes. I think we are in recession already which justifies a 50 basis point cut.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

I think we are in recession already which justifies a 50 basis point cut.

For everyone who refi'd at 3% will that matter? What if Japan raises rates again and kills the carry trade? Oil prices remain high and it seems likely that until we see a real slowdown, gasoline will remain high. But if it capitulates with another 1,000 point stock market drop, oil is likely to go down. That would signal demand has slowed.

 

[Charles West]

For everyone who refi'd at 3% will that matter? What if Japan raises rates again and kills the carry trade? Oil prices remain high and it seems likely that until we see a real slowdown, gasoline will remain high. But if it capitulates with another 1,000 point stock market drop, oil is likely to go down. That would signal demand has slowed.

Demographics are controlling factor in the housing market, not rates per se. If the Biden/Harris administration allow a major conflict between Iran and Israel to combust, oil may get near $100 again in spite of a major Chinese slowdown. $100 oil would really punish the middle classes.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

oil may get near $100 again in spite of a major Chinese slowdown.

A series of storms thru the Gulf would also drive oil prices higher, at least temporarily. Ukraine is hurting Russia's refinery output with its attacks. Go figure. Less oil from Russia means their purchasers have to find alternative sources. Muduro's refusal to step down means turmoil and perhaps revolt in Venezuela...less oil for the market. OPEC holding the line...well, you get the point. US production is declining and natural gas here is in a pure glut with pipelines refusing to accept new gas in W. Texas. The pipelines are totally full, the storage wells are totally full, and they have no market for it. Why truck makers are not converting to nat. gas is a mystery. It would save half on fuel costs or more. And be better for air quality.

 

[Sandra Koutsopoulos]

I'm betting 0.5% Fed rate decline within next 10 days.

 

[Charles West]

A series of storms thru the Gulf would also drive oil prices higher, at least temporarily. Ukraine is hurting Russia's refinery output with its attacks. Go figure. Less oil from Russia means their purchasers have to find alternative sources. Muduro's refusal to step down means turmoil and perhaps revolt in Venezuela...less oil for the market. OPEC holding the line...well, you get the point. US production is declining and natural gas here is in a pure glut with pipelines refusing to accept new gas in W. Texas. The pipelines are totally full, the storage wells are totally full, and they have no market for it. Why truck makers are not converting to nat. gas is a mystery. It would save half on fuel costs or more. And be better for air quality.

Natural gas is carbon-based and no matter how much sense converting makes it is a non-starter with climate warriors. California could reverse its fortunes by developing the Monterey field, turning the Central Valley into a wealthy paradise instead of the poverty stricken agricultural zone it is now.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

I'm betting 0.5% Fed rate decline within next 10 days.

I think they will wait until September unless the market goes south again 1,000 points or so.

 

[gregb]

Regardless of timing on the rate reduction, the claim will be Fed fix is in for Kamala.

 

[gregb]

DOW to 150,000?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-150-000-it-could-happen-if-the-2020s-turn-out-like-the-roaring-20s-83b943e2?mod=home-page