For Bert: All existing appraisal standards are inadequate

[RCA]

Multivariable regression has several limitations, including:

1. Assumption of Linearity: Multivariable regression assumes a linear relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable. If this assumption is not met, the model may not be accurate.
2. Assumption of Independence: Multivariable regression assumes that the independent variables are independent of each other. If they are correlated, it can lead to issues such as multicollinearity, which can affect the model's accuracy and interpretation.
3. Overfitting: Including too many independent variables in the model can lead to overfitting, where the model performs well on the data used to create it but poorly on new data.
4. Interpretability: As the number of independent variables increases, it becomes more difficult to interpret the individual impact of each variable on the dependent variable.
5. Sample Size: Multivariable regression requires a relatively large sample size to produce reliable results. With a small sample, the model may not be accurate.
6. Outliers and Influential Points: Multivariable regression can be sensitive to outliers and influential points, which can disproportionately affect the results.
7. Assumption of Normality and Homoscedasticity: Multivariable regression assumes that the errors are normally distributed and have constant variance. Violation of these assumptions can affect the validity of the model.

It's important to be aware of these limitations when using multivariable regression and to consider alternative modeling approaches when these limitations may impact the validity of the results.

QUESTION; Should the above be included in your report certifications and Limitations Page?

1. Multi-Variable regression is just regression that is based on more than one variable. So, all appraisal regression is pretty much multi-variable regression.

2. Multi-Linear regression is contraining the regression function for each variable to a line. This greatly reduces the accuracy of regression. For example, GLA usually goes up fast in the lower ranges then levels off and maybe starts going downward for large homes - which in many areas are not desired.

3. I hope you are aware of the fact that I NEVER use multi-linear regression. IT DOES NOT WORK in the SF Bay Area.

4. What I use is non-linear regression. I use MARS - which is segmented linear that break or changes direction at "knots" that actually split the variable range into categories. So, for example the value contribution of bathroom count may go up from 1-3 bathrooms, but then start to drop off at the 4th bathroom.

5. Segemented linear gives about the same R2 or higher as curvilinear regression. It has the advantage that it is faster to calculate - and is easier to use in practice.

 

[RCA]

Appraisers = Valuation Engineers
Garbage Collectors = Sanitation Engineers
Computer programmers = Software Engineers

Everybody loves putting 'engineer' after their title! LOL!!

1. The term "engineer" means you have a college level education in math and science.

2. 99% of residential appraisers are NOT valuation engineers by any stretch of the imagination.

3. Sanitation Engineers - usually have a degree in sanitation engineering with a pretty good education in physics (water flow problems), chemistry (water treatment) and biology (microorganism), mechanical engineering, transportation and so on.

4. The term computer programmers is pretty much pre-1990. At one time, many computer programmers did pretty simple computer programming with RPG, COBOL and some SQL. When C++ hit the market, as operating systems and language become more complicated, other things like SQL started getting rather elusive and hard to understand (makes me think of the SQL I ran into at Tesla - where they had to deal with highly complicated BOMs). - By 1990-1995, the terms "Principle Software Engineer, and Senior Software Engineer started appearing. The programmers in the Silicon Valley, were often just as smart or smarter than Electrical and Aeronautical Engineers. In fact, I worked with many Senior Software Engineers who had degrees in the these areas. There often were better paying jobs in software engineering than in aeronautical, mechanical, civil and electrical engineering. It was where the money was -and it is just as intellectually demanding if not more so. Software Engineers are continually learning new technologies.

So, now, the Unions may have thrown the term "Sanitation Engineer" around loosely in certain areas for political reasons. --- But in that case, it is just politics. Or, come to think of it, coming out of the 70's and 80s, when the profession of Sanitation Engineer kind of came into being, many smarter older dudes took some college courses in chemistry and biology and were induced into the profession without a college degree per se. - But I would guess that nowadays, you pretty much have to have a degree in Sanitation Engineering to get a good paying job as such. - I actually had an uncle who did this in 70's/80's. He passed away many years ago.

 

[RCA]

Tip, Complex systems can be simplified by focusing on the concept of "knots". Clever systems, make good use of knots. It is a branch of math called "topology."

The RCA method I created for appraisal uses two knots for the Sales Grid. These knots are tied down by:

1. The Net Sale Prices.
2. The Residuals.

These are the two big knots - or constraints - that tie everything down.

 

[sputnam]

Appraisers = Valuation Engineers
Garbage Collectors = Sanitation Engineers
Computer programmers = Software Engineers

Everybody loves putting 'engineer' after their title! LOL!!

The engineers should be Engineering Engineers maybe

 

[J Grant]

Tip, Complex systems can be simplified by focusing on the concept of "knots". Clever systems, make good use of knots. It is a branch of math called "topology."

The RCA method I created for appraisal uses two knots for the Sales Grid. These knots are tied down by:

1. The Net Sale Prices.
2. The Residuals.

These are the two big knots - or constraints - that tie everything down.

Do you mean adjusted sales price when you say net sales price?

 

[Carnivore]

This topic discussion is the third one in the past month or two at this site is very interesting and frankly quite serious to the future of Appraisers.

This my thinking, Limitations! All processes have limitations. Our brains have the the capacity to analyze large amounts of data., but we are not Computers. very fast also. People are different.

So this would be voluntary: Aptitude Test. Usually it can and does have a purpose in State Government Primary schools. It reveals possible educational paths.
This should not and can not be a barrier for anyone decision. It's just a tool they can use to choose a career path.

The benefits and importance of aptitude tests in your career

Learn about the importance of aptitude tests. Discover what they are, how they're used for education and careers, and more about YouScience.

www.youscience.com

 

[Artemis Fowl]

I took one in high school. Said I should be an Arbitrator.

 

[Carnivore]

I did also and it was pretty good for me. I had decided to enlist in the military or wait to be drafted. Either way I was going in. So recruiter set me up for aptitude testing. The results qualified me for entry into the US Army Helicopter Phase 1 Flight School Ft Wolters, TX. 5 months long. I finished that phase which qualified me for Phase two Ft Rucker Alabama. Rucker is where you get your Instrument flight and put phase it all together a-z and be able to complete a mission successfully. So we are done as far as the army is concerned. Total time 9 months. Your now ready for the last option. Sit for the FAA Commercial License Exam. The Flight portion is waived by the FAA. They knew there is no point in doing that, because they knew we were ready. Many of them were also Civilian instructors in our flight school so what's the point. The exam is tough. I don't know if this is actually true, but we were told our entire class aced the exam.

So this all took place counting basic training, some leave time about 11 months and 208 logged flight hours.

I anticipate a question: Carnivore If commercial aviation/flying is exciting and pay is very good Why are you an appraiser? Simple . I was tired of being away from my family and friends. Especially missing those life events of family and close friends. Appraising seemed like a good profession because you have a lot of control over your time.

To finish. I see a relationship between appraiser training and military pilot training. Both are structured properly. It makes sense. The difference is simple. Cost/loss of steady income/low pay for appraiser & trainee

Significant difference is the training All military ground and flight instructors are highly trained. and all have steady pay and benefits i,e healthcare, retirement etc.
Residential Appraisers are most likely not trained formally to teach/instruct trainee's. The AQB peeps are trained and tested for their designation to teach/instruct all trainees and licensed appraisers. Is an AQB Instructor highly paid? I guess is depends on class size. Steady? Well the ASB constant changing of of USPAP standards is a sort of steadiness.

I am done babbling. Your Turn.

 

[Mark K]

Carnivore If commercial aviation/flying is exciting and pay is very good Why are you an appraiser?

My only trainee I've supervised was an Army helicopter pilot, Viet Nam vet, flew a Bell 407 for the local news channel. I flew with him quite a few times, lots of fun. The pilot pay wasn't bad but it wasn't that great. I was surprised thinking it would be more. He would have made considerably more as an appraiser but after about 3 yrs as a trainee (150 more hrs. experience) he decided to go another direction.

 

[Carnivore]

I zm getting to my main point very soon.

I looked at several state licensing educational requirement

Pennsylvania

Certified Residential Real Estate Appraiser Licensure Requirements Snapshot

www.dos.pa.gov

New York

https://www.theceshop.com/real-estate-appraisal/new-york/appraiser-licensing/how-to-become-a-real-estate-appraiser-in-new-york#section-1

California
/brea.ca.gov/html/Lic_Hdbk.html#eee


So above for all three states If I read them right don't require a college degree Possibly California. Cali definitely has some complex Education options