Grid adjustment question

[chad hampton]

I’ll take an experienced 30 year appraiser who can walk through a house and give me a value just by being an expert in his market over Seth from algebra class sitting at his computer any day of the week.

No matter how much they try to force it, appraising is not math and it’s not science. If that’s your thing, go work for SpaceX and help put rockets into orbit. There’s no emotion in that.

 

[Carnivore]

How well does Bert's Super Duper multi-variant regression work in rural areas?

I know this is one way you can get adjustments:

Depreciated cost adjustments are market-based adjustments that use depreciation to develop and support sales comparison grid adjustments. Depreciated cost is the value of a fixed asset minus all of the accumulated depreciation that has been recorded against it. In a broader economic sense, the depreciated cost is the aggregate amount of capital that is "used up" in a given period, such as a fiscal year.

 

[J Grant]

Refresh my memory. Where does it say we must have a good understanding of how regression works before we can use it in our analysis and reporting?


I use and have used many times the HP-12C. It comes with an owners Handbook and problem solving guide. So I am familiar with it and know it can do quite a bit of mathematical problem solving.

USPAP has a section regarding statistical analysis, idk if they might not mention regression specifically, but they have a section regarding statistics and computer-driven data that if an appraiser uses them they should understand them and be able to replicate the results \i

 

[J Grant]

How well does Bert's Super Duper multi-variant regression work in rural areas?

I know this is one way you can get adjustments:

Depreciated cost adjustments are market-based adjustments that use depreciation to develop and support sales comparison grid adjustments. Depreciated cost is the value of a fixed asset minus all of the accumulated depreciation that has been recorded against it. In a broader economic sense, the depreciated cost is the aggregate amount of capital that is "used up" in a given period, such as a fiscal year.

deprecated cost and check it against extraction/sensitivity adjustments from princess of comps and vice versa- teh two balance each other out - no regression is needed -

 

[alebrewer]

Appraising IS math - it's nonsensical to say that it's not. And appraisers should be familiar with the tools available to perform mathematical analysis to assist in deciphering the market. Just because there are tools that some don't understand (regression) is no reason to make up silly arguments that 'appraisal isn't math'. That - again - is just nonsense. Granted - some on the forum would like folks to believe they're the only ones qualified to perform appraisals - because they're the only ones that understand MARS, but regression is math, paired sales analysis is math, sensitivity analysis is math, heck - even making adjustments is math...

 

[J Grant]

Appraising IS math - it's nonsensical to say that it's not. And appraisers should be familiar with the tools available to perform mathematical analysis to assist in deciphering the market. Just because there are tools that some don't understand (regression) is no reason to make up silly arguments that 'appraisal isn't math'. That - again - is just nonsense. Granted - some on the forum would like folks to believe they're the only ones qualified to perform appraisals - because they're the only ones that understand MARS, but regression is math, paired sales analysis is math, sensitivity analysis is math, heck - even making adjustments is math...

of course appraisers use math- but we use it to model and support what the data in the market shows- we dont't fit the market data to a math formula -

We are asked to arrive at a MARKET VALUE OPINION, not a MATHEMATICAL ESTIMATE-

Buyers do not use regression to make decisions about what to spend on a pool or a view or what discount they expect for an adverse feature - we are not replicating their thought process when we use regression -

Regression seems like a useful tool for some aspects of an appraisal but not others -

 

[alebrewer]

of course appraisers use math- but we use it to model and support what the data in the market shows- we dont't fit the market data to a math formula -

We are asked to arrive at a MARKET VALUE OPINION, not a MATHEMATICAL ESTIMATE-

Buyers do not use regression to make decisions about what to spend on a pool or a view or what discount they expect for an adverse feature - we are not replicating their thought process when we use regression -

Regression seems like a useful tool for some aspects of an appraisal but not others -

Incorrect again, J. The appraiser's job is to use data to predict the market's behavior - just as any other Economics discipline, only specialized for the housing market. And in EVERY Economics class I EVER took (I have an MS in Economics) - we extensively used mathematical tools to perform our 'modeling' (to use your word). I'm guessing your'e not that familiar with regression as you said it 'seems' like a useful tool. It's been my experience that those who poopoo regression usually don't understand how to use it. Yes - there are times that regression doesn't work well - but that's when it's the appraiser's job to employ other mathematical tools to accomplish their goal - sensitivity analysis, grouped sales analysis, etc. BUT - at the core - appraisers use MATH to model market behavior. That is the ONLY way to objectively quantify said behavior. Without math, it's simply your opinion vs mine - which is why we're in the mess we're in right now.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

-I'll rely on NASA and the world's premier scientists and climatologists

Quote them. What the press publishes is nonsense. Those "climatologists" do not put out hysterical nonsense. They are much more nuanced than that. They have models and point out that the RCP 8.5 model leads to run away warming...the model does, not the real world. The 8.5 is roughly 4x more heat hitting the earth than what we have today. They only mention in the context of converting all power sources to coal fired plants...and now scientists are realizing that CO2 is not the temperature knob of climate. And there is a lot of debate about what these models mean and what is really happening.

"The observed 12–state U.S. Corn Belt summer temperature trend for 1973–2022 is considerably less than that produced by all 36 climate models used to promote changes in U.S. energy policy". (Jan 24, 2024)​

 

[sputnam]

Said the woman who has ever read a research article and depends upon pop science. You are the one in denial. The temperature has not changed in stations that are not impacted by the heat island effect. The oceans have not risen since the Ice ages. Gore promised us that in 2005 that the snows of Kilimanjaro would disappear by 2015...What prediction made has actually come to fruition? None. Not one. And every "model" (and models are not science, they are hypothesis) without exception indicates warmer than the actual temperature record...every single one of them. The NW Passage, which was actually open twice in the past 200 years that we know of, has not been open in years. Polar bears are increasing, not decreasing. And Greenland gets more snow than it loses in ice most years. It is still not as warm as it was in the 11th century when wheat was grown there.

And often the media exaggerates what scientists say...making ridiculous claims like below when the media claimed last summer was the hottest year ever in the UK....not even close.
View attachment 85957

Interesting.... now let's see the data covering the years from 1,000,000 BC until the present. The fact is that climate changers and change deniers both often present only the data that supports their position. Appraisers, better than most, should understand that you go where the data takes you. Doing anything else is the definition of prejudice.

 

[Carnivore]

Regression has been around a long time and is still used heavily in the Aerospace Industry.