GSE Waiver & Data Collection Data

[Justinjla]

In my world 20% is a big deal, and let's not forget waivers were supposed to be a temporary solution for a once in a lifetime event. And let's put 20% into some context, if your salary was cut 20% would you be as dismissive? If Fannie had to cut 20% of staff, would you be as dismissive to those shown the door?

Either way, the 20% isn't happening in a vacuum. Waivers are taking what most appraisers consider easy assignments, which leave boots on the ground appraisers with less work overall and a higher percentage of complex assignments. And the assignments waivers take away can be added to the loss of work from low paying hybrids being promoted by the GSEs, then we have the top two mortgage originators being all but locked up by national firm staff appraisers and AMC staff appraisers. All of that together is why true independent appraisers are dropping like flies, not because they are dying or retiring. And I get that the few test appraisers who were blessed to be picked by the GSEs for the hybrid experiment were more than happy making bank. But in the world outside of those chosen few appraisers, hybrids are a money loser and are adding stress to an already stressed market.

You think a 50% LTV loan, solid borrower, refinance transaction where we have a recent prior appraisal, robust market data, etc. needs a full appraisal?

We've had waivers 20+ years. They are not new.

 

[shrubberyvaluation]

How do we partner with FastApp?

Do you not? That is a good sign and thank you for clearing that up. Did you refuse to accept appraisals that went through them after they got caught only giving orders to an appraiser that would hit value? AI still has a ways to go, even for these simple queries online, much less for valuing real estate that is local and always changing.

 

[shrubberyvaluation]

You think a 50% LTV loan, solid borrower, refinance transaction where we have a recent prior appraisal, robust market data, etc. needs a full appraisal?

We've had waivers 20+ years. They are not new.

I am not in risk management but it is probably fine unless there is something odd about the property or there has been massive shifts in market conditions that is readily apparent. Vacant land is probably the highest risk, but also probably something FNMA doesn't have anything to do with?

 

[Non Sequitur]

You think a 50% LTV loan, solid borrower, refinance transaction where we have a recent prior appraisal, robust market data, etc. needs a full appraisal?

We've had waivers 20+ years. They are not new.

And "50% LTV loan, solid borrower, refinance transaction where we have a recent prior appraisal, robust market data, etc." is common or the norm in waiver world? I don't believe that for a second. I'll guess the % of "abundance of caution" loans is closer to zero than you will ever admit.

 

[Justinjla]

Do you not? That is a good sign and thank you for clearing that up. Did you refuse to accept appraisals that went through them after they got caught only giving orders to an appraiser that would hit value? AI still has a ways to go, even for these simple queries online, much less for valuing real estate that is local and always changing.

View attachment 98808

No we don't and never have.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

A lot of appraisers quit after losing 20% of their business. Who wants to struggle to make $60,000 only to make $48,000 the next year?

 

[CGinMN]

We expanded to those higher LTVs months ago. What happened to the rates since we expanded? Just an incremental increase. Why is the increase so small? Because we intentionally tightened our model confidence thresholds, added additional layers of logic, and more so that only a fraction of loans that we are really confident in qualify at those higher LTV levels.

Why even do it if it’s such a small fraction? What is the goal? To make waivers more equitable?

What will happen is that you first establish precedent for waivers at a 97LTV and then, whether you like it or not, for political or profit reasons someone tweaks the model. It is just a matter of time. Waivers were supposed to only be low for risk and low LTV scenarios.

 

[TerryRohrer]

...we intentionally tightened our model confidence thresholds, added additional layers of logic, and more so...

This is akin to "tuning the dial" used by health insurance companies to deny coverage when bonuses and bumps in stock prices are desired. Results of these actions can be analyzed and fine-tuned so that during the next pandemic, or a non-market induced drop in mortgage rates, or during the next phase of governmental social engineering, the dial can be turned to whatever level in order to maintain market share. Based on "need", model confidence thresholds will be intentionally loosened, layers of logic will be removed or restrained, and more so...

 

[George Hatch]

My guess is that the move to increase the implementation to 95% LTVs was at the behest of the previous administration. As in, at least partially driven by the politics of the day, not as an expression of runaway approval intentions. Hence the utility of adding more filters to those particular loans.

 

[shrubberyvaluation]

And "50% LTV loan, solid borrower, refinance transaction where we have a recent prior appraisal, robust market data, etc." is common or the norm in waiver world? I don't believe that for a second. I'll guess the % of "abundance of caution" loans is closer to zero than you will ever admit.

Correct are 20% of loans having a recent refi, with a recent appraisal with 50% LTV and a solid borrower? I question that as well.