Here We Go Again

[ucbruin]

I'm constantly surprised by the number of appraisers that are provided with copies of other appraiser's reports....

Sounds like a Pez candy dispenser....

 

[Deleted member 150397]

I'm constantly surprised by the number of appraisers that are provided with copies of other appraiser's reports....

Sounds like a Pez candy dispenser....

It's part of the biz and my only issue is with the flunkies who use it for their own reports and claim that it's their work. Plagiarism is bull**** but even worse clearly indicates the person has no process or understanding of one and is purely a form filler, not an appraiser.

 

[Tim The Enchanter]

Here I go again. Forgive the giant big hair.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

Well this has had me confused about my market. Where was this demand coming from. If it was local then my apartment vacancy rates should have risen, but they didn't they were at 100% occupancy. I did know that people were moving here from other parts of the country. OK, that would make sense., but some areas should have been declining or flat. They were not as far as I know from post on this forum. So I did not see our nationwide population increasing at a large rate. That would answer for the higher demand. Since it was not increasing quickly then what could be causing the demand? I think I partly know the answer. Millennial(Gen Z) were moving out of their parents basements! Interest rates were low, they were sick of seeing their parents everyday and ragging them and BOOM! Here they come.

Anybody have a better idea of where the demand came from. FTR My market is still appreciating but at a much slower rate.

It has been widely publicized for the past 2 years that the increase in market values is supply- rather than demand-based, with the relative volume of properties listed for sale constrained more so than ever before--although the motivation of property owners with substantial equity who refrain from reaping the potential profit, who appear to have forgotten the how fast and how far markets declined a decade ago, hasn't been addressed, a cumulative market "motivation profile" a challenging metric to determine. Although supply is greatly constrained because affordibility also has declined to history lows in numerous markets, the impact of the supply-demand ratio isn't as significant. Flip side based on the narrow tightrope that consequently was created is that once declines are apparent, the race downward fueled by price drops and concessions is precipituous.

 

[Carnivore]

It has been widely publicized for the past 2 years that the increase in market values is supply- rather than demand-based, with the relative volume of properties listed for sale constrained more so than ever before--although the motivation of property owners with substantial equity who refrain from reaping the potential profit, who appear to have forgotten the how fast and how far markets declined a decade ago, hasn't been addressed, a cumulative market "motivation profile" a challenging metric to determine. Although supply is greatly constrained because affordibility also has declined to history lows in numerous markets, the impact of the supply-demand ratio isn't as significant. Flip side based on the narrow tightrope that consequently was created is that once declines are apparent, the race downward fueled by price drops and concessions is precipituous.

Yes, I follow you. My area population was growing. That explained the Vacancy rates of apartments to be so low, to some even having 4-8 weeks waiting list. What we lacked was SFR to buy! Several reasons for that, first people were not leaving so if they were wanting to sell they had to have something to buy or rent. I think what I saw was new construction was behind the power curve. I think even the developers were caught off guard a little and it takes time for them to ramp up. Entry level SFR is still in demand, but slowed a little in my county(border Charlotte to west).

Day before yesterday I submitted a quote for a major Reno/upgrade. Someone under cut me, but that's OK, I quoted $1,100 and I think I was low. The market where the subject is located has a large oversupply. Price range for that area 500k- 1 million. They inventory is way more than i have seen in a long time. In this area the buyers are not as Rate Sensitive. So something has changed and I have to figure out what happened. I have to take a close look at demographics of this sub-market, I believe the answer can be found there.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

Yes, I follow you. My area population was growing. That explained the Vacancy rates of apartments to be so low, to some even having 4-8 weeks waiting list. What we lacked was SFR to buy! Several reasons for that, first people were not leaving so if they were wanting to sell they had to have something to buy or rent. I think what I saw was new construction was behind the power curve. I think even the developers were caught off guard a little and it takes time for them to ramp up. Entry level SFR is still in demand, but slowed a little in my county(border Charlotte to west).

Day before yesterday I submitted a quote for a major Reno/upgrade. Someone under cut me, but that's OK, I quoted $1,100 and I think I was low. The market where the subject is located has a large oversupply. Price range for that area 500k- 1 million. They inventory is way more than i have seen in a long time. In this area the buyers are not as Rate Sensitive. So something has changed and I have to figure out what happened. I have to take a close look at demographics of this sub-market, I believe the answer can be found there.

Oh, well, it'll be a moot point when somebody, someday, exposes the unquestioned, inherent value of "home ownership" being integral to the American Dream as nothing more than a hoax perpretrated decades ago by the mortgage industry. Feel my contrarian perspective?

 

[Artemis Fowl]

With that said....
How could "here we go again" be prevented????

Is this something appraisers are supposed to prevent?

 

[ucbruin]

Is this something appraisers are supposed to prevent?

What is the "something" you are referring to?

 

[Mike Kennedy]

Oh, well, it'll be a moot point when somebody, someday, exposes the unquestioned, inherent value of "home ownership" being integral to the American Dream as nothing more than a hoax perpretrated decades ago by the mortgage industry. Feel my contrarian perspective?

Once Fed n State Pols cut or take away the Tax write off for mortgage interest - Boom to ................Basement Bust time.

 

[Deleted member 128537]

I am talking as an economist here with reference to tax policies and not just housing policies. The fact is the mortgage deduction has always been regressive. It has been promoted by the NAR which is a huge lobbying group. Yes home ownership is important, but if the mortgage deduction is so vital then has it caused the value of homes to be inflated? In other words it has never really made an impact on affordability. Everything finds its balance. Now that we take the large mortgage deduction out of the mix values will again have to find their balance relative to the consumer's ability to pay. Simple supply and demand. The question is what percentage impact will it have. I don't think anyone really knows for sure. My guess is that it will depend largely upon the tax bracket of the homeowner and the size of mortgage that homeowner has. Thus for homes most likely purchased by upper middle class and in the higher range of the market the impact will be more noticeable. For homes purchased on the lower end of the market; not so much. Where values are extremely high for modest homes like CA, NJ, etc it will most likely make an impact in the short run. But in the long run things will find their balance.

But I always wonder about statements that appraisals are over inflated. How is that determined? AVM? Audits? Reviews? I just wish there was more substance about how that statement was substantiated.