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Housihg bubble again

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Carnivore

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Joined
Jan 15, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
rstrahn,

These articles to me are meaningless except for genral info purposes. My area, charlotte is experiencing record sales! I also understand that other parts of the country are also experiencing tghe same thing. I can only conclude that market s are a regional thing and most likely have always been this way.

I am sure if one looked at this with a more discerning eye that they the could conclude that many areas are suffering because of flight from high property taxes and politics that go along with it. I grew up in Broome county, NY. They are going through a hellish period right now because of a viscous cycle of tax and spend politics with no back bone to ever cut back, thus many producers(tax payers) are fleeing the area to places like mine(charlotte). I welcome them with open arms, because it just helps my market even more.

Most reporters have no clue about any of this.
 

Dee Dee

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Colorado
These articles to me are meaningless except for genral info purposes. My area, charlotte is experiencing record sales! I also understand that other parts of the country are also experiencing tghe same thing. I can only conclude that market s are a regional thing and most likely have always been this way.

Andrew,
You sound like the majority of Denverites and it's media did just two years ago. :wink:
Just keep a close eye on what drives your boom. If you begin to realize that a disproportionate number of those newcomers to your area are dependant on growth to provide their incomes, then also understand that it is not sustainable and can turn on a dime. Those growth-related jobs include real estate brokers, mortgage brokers, developers, all building tradespeople and short-term real estate investors. When they pull out it will have a domino effect on all businesses that counted on their presence to prosper.
 

Carnivore

Elite Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
These articles to me are meaningless except for genral info purposes. My area, charlotte is experiencing record sales! I also understand that other parts of the country are also experiencing tghe same thing. I can only conclude that market s are a regional thing and most likely have always been this way.

Andrew,
You sound like the majority of Denverites and it's media did just two years ago. :wink:
Just keep a close eye on what drives your boom. If you begin to realize that a disproportionate number of those newcomers to your area are dependant on growth to provide their incomes, then also understand that it is not sustainable and can turn on a dime. Those growth-related jobs include real estate brokers, mortgage brokers, developers, all building tradespeople and short-term real estate investors. When they pull out it will have a domino effect on all businesses that counted on their presence to prosper.

Dee Dee,

Are you telling me that Denver's population is increasing or declining?
Are population is increasing, creating demand for goods' services, housing etc.

Are Denvers tax revenues up or down. Charlottes, tax revenues are up over last year, significantly, and they are talking about a tax rate REDUCTION.

Just some food for tought
 

Mike Simpson

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 30, 2002
Highest unemployment in the country here in the Pacific Northwest and record sales again in January...I don't get it!

-Mike
 

Dee Dee

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Colorado
Are you telling me that Denver's population is increasing or declining?
Are population is increasing, creating demand for goods' services, housing etc.

Are Denvers tax revenues up or down. Charlottes, tax revenues are up over last year, significantly, and they are talking about a tax rate REDUCTION.

Just some food for tought

Truly, Andrew...that's exactly what was happening here a very short time ago. The number of newcomers to the state was unbelievable, and of course the building and new businesses to cater to them was everywhere.
I think it was just three years ago the taxpayers in Denver were getting tax rebates...the coffers were so full that we were gloating and giving it back to the taxpayers. By all appearances at that time it was thought that the end was nowhere near. Now they're closing up city and county offices all over the place to make up for a multi-million dollar deficit. The economy turned on a dime. Vacancy rates are soaring, layoffs in most major retail sectors and consolidation (read:closures) of larger chain stores is in the news almost daily.
Though I'm not sure exactly what the current rate of population growth or decline is, I can tell you that there are houses for sale everywhere that aren't selling...the same homes that three years ago would have been under contract within 24 hours after listing and have multiple back up offers. Nearly everyone that I know is either cutting back on every expense they possibly can, hunkering down for what they expect will be a long recovery time, or are seriously eyeballing other areas of the country where they can make quick money with their new understanding of how the growth game can work to their benefit.
I have learned that new growth prosperity can be a short term illusion, but if you play your cards right you can make a killing off of those who are decieved by positive media and, unbeknownst to many, very temporary statistics.
 

Dee Dee

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Colorado
Highest unemployment in the country here in the Pacific Northwest and record sales again in January...I don't get it!

-Mike

I think I do. If a large number of the newcomers are somehow tied into businesses that cater to growth, then start buying now. What part of the northwest are you in?
 

Steve Owen

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Missouri
Markets facing the lowest risk of a price collapse include the greater Washington region, Newburgh, N.Y., Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C., Cincinnati and Milwaukee-Waukesha.

Hmmmmpf! They didn't even mention Joplin, Missouri.
 

Farm Gal

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 14, 2002
Professional Status
Licensed Appraiser
State
Nebraska
:lol: :lol:
Steve, neither did they reference

Topeka KS,

where we were recently voted in the top 50 areas attractive to incoming businesses...

Which accolade is due in part to the number of vacant large buildings all READY to house them :wink:
 

Mike Garrett RAA

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 14, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Colorado
I keep hearing all this "doom and gloom" stuff about my market too. I just ran stats from both MLS, the regional building department, and the census thingy.

While unemployment is up when comparing it to the year before it is still low and far from the number in the 1980s when the market was really bad. Population growth is still occuring. Inventories are not significantly higher than a year ago. Both the average sales price and the median sales prices are higher than a year ago.

What recession? The media loves to predict "doom n gloom" especially when a republican is in the white house! Colorado does have some problems with revenues but that is mostly because of the TABOR (Tax Payers Bill of Rights) which limits tax increases without a vote of the people who regularly say "NO". Our biggest problem right now is drought....worst in recorded history for the state. Major forest fires last year have also taken their tolls.

Still, if you ask any appraiser worth his or her salt...they are way too busy! Just got another liquidation assignment today, that is 3 for the month so far. I don't believe it is the ecomony...it's 125% equity financing, in most cases.
 
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