Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Randolph Kinney]

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Thanks, dont take this personal Randolf;
actually WSJ is one of the better newspapers, but thats not saying much.

See my headline,
many areas [a smaller number than the many downtrending markets] have nicely .uptrending prices.

No wonder Investors Business Daily talks about media bias so much.

Murray, no offense taken. A news source is just that.

One of the interesting parts of the national real estate scene is that NAR has reported the nation as a whole median home prices for August, year over year month, declined 1.7%. Steve Owen will tell you that his market is stable, no declines there. And so, where are the areas or markets that are declining?

That chart is interesting from the WSJ because it is some one's opinion or projection of what they think the prices of homes will do in the future. Notice that they have Reno, NV as the number 2 spot for price decline. There are assumptions about those projections. You will see many people, experts, pundits, even people on this forum, as time rolls by either defend what they have already spoken in the past or come around to say I told you so.

The biggest laugh I get is from NAR; they are now saying there is going to be a price decline. That's a big turn around from their prior statements and projections.

Greg Bell is giving you a piece of history. I agree with his assessment on foreclosures. I have started to monitor the recordings at the San Diego county web site for notice of trustee sale. Big up swing from May to September. If the economy is doing so well and the projection is for a soft landing, why are there so many markets with declining real estate prices? Why are short sales and foreclosures going up exponentially?

 

[moh malekpour]

What I'm saying is that maybe in our zeal to report the good news of an appreciating market we, as a group, over-reached by not paying attention to some of the economic basics.

Steve,
If we reported what we saw in due diligent way, what are economic basics that we didn't paty attention to? the cost approach?

 

[moh malekpour]

The run up was based upon economics more than anything. But even when underlying economics do support increases, markets can still get overheated. That is what we had and now we are correcting.

Brad, What happened to the economy that Precipitated the run up in the housing market?

 

[JSmith43]

I've said over and over again that time will tell. Now, that done, care to give us your definition of a bubble??

I'll take Brad's definition, less 1/10th of a percent. I got low!

 

[Pamela Crowley (Florida)]

IMO: The run up was based on speculators flipping properties.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

IMO: The run up was based on speculators flipping properties

And builders who build for that market thinking there is no day of financial reckoning.

In the 70's, one builder promised that he would NEVER allow himself to have more than 1 vacant home.....he's just about broke AGAIN...probably has 200 vacant lots under construction - 2 subdivision for sale "as is". One is a greenfield subdivision that cannot get final approval from the town. The other is maybe 40% completed. Maybe 10 - 15 developed lots and at least 4 houses in the MLS that have been on the market for 180 days or more.

Another builder has no houses, but bought a 120 acre farm, Phase I is 60 lots. Just completed. $60K per lot. Nary a sale..he tells people 16 lots are committed. His partner, a broker, says no lots are sold....

 

[Fred]

What I'm saying is that maybe in our zeal to report the good news of an appreciating market we, as a group, over-reached by not paying attention to some of the economic basics

What zeal? When they ask for an objective, imparital estimate of most probable price today for one property, that's about as narrow a scope and finding as there is.

 

[Ty Yu]

America: Housing Bubble Burst in 2006

I attempted to warn Americans on this forum on May 21, 2005 that the infamous U.S. Housing Bubble would Burst in 2006.

Here is a link to my original post here from May 21-2005 @ 12:14 PM
http://appraisersforum.com/improving-profession/92626-housing-bubble-8.html#post1033063

I was ridiculed and scoffed in this very forum for accurately forcasting that the national real estate bubble in America would burst in 2006. "When the blind lead the blind, everyone falls in a ditch"; "there are none so blind as those who refuse to see".

Here are three links to very recent articles on the "Looming Depression" caused by the burst national housing bubble. We are only beginning to see the rippling effects of the economic nightmare that has begun. The worst has yet to come......

Double-Digit Declines in Home Prices - Bloomberg News / October 6, 2006
http://www.boston.com/business/glob...rt_sees_double_digit_declines_in_home_prices/

The Property Crash has Only Begun: Historic Home Price Decline - Realty Times / Oct 5, 2006
http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20061005_economyforecast.htm

Falling Home Prices Could Devastate U.S. Economy - The Trumpet / October 4, 2006
http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?page=article&id=2587

Real Estate Retribution: The United States Housing Bubble Has Become the Real Estate Lead Balloon in 2006. America's Residential Real Estate Bubble Burst in 2006: What Happened to the *Soft Landing* Predicted by the Heathen Economists? There is a lot of discussion about the downward spiral of house prices being only temporary. Yes, 15-20 years is only temporary. The Housing Bubble Bursting will consequently wreck the U.S. economy and the oppressive effects are becoming manifest to everyone.

Ty Yu
http://www.mossback.net/bubble.htm

 

[JSmith43]

What Happened to the *Soft Landing* Predicted by the Heathen Economists? There is a lot of discussion about the downward spiral of house prices being only temporary. Yes, 15-20 years is only temporary.

The USA can lighten up on building codes. Everyone will still have a place to live.

I, for one, am going forward with my snap together cardboard kit homes (flex foam insulation liner and all weather urethane coating optional). Look for the roll out at Wal-Mart,

 

[Bobby Bucks]

Someone much wiser than I posed this question before on this thread. How many of the resident sages who foresaw this disaster cashed out at the top and and are now wealthy tenants?