Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Steve Owen]

Seems like many buyers and most investors are retreating to the sidelines for the time being, and they all seem to be trying to figure out the $6,000,000 question, which is where the bottom might be.

Trying to time the bottom (or the top) in justa bout any market is a fools game. If that's really what they are doing, then they deserve to get spanked. My guess is that a lot of these guys who are sitting out are doing so for more fundamental reasons... money to be made in other places.

At this point it would be tough to argue that there isn't a growing amount of "blood on the floor" in most markets. Hopefully not too much of it will belong to appraisers.

Sad, but true, if you change "most" to "many." Maybe in some markets appraisers deserve it.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Haven't bought anything more than 150 miles from home and intend to keep it that way, but thanks anyway.

If YOU would like to buy it, perhaps we can make you a loan.

Thank you Mike for your support. I just may take you up on that offer. My neighborhood is sick suffering from lack of activity, extended DOMs, falling listing prices, etc. I might wait for this one to actually get sold before attempting anything.

What sort of terms do you have for making loans?

 

[moh malekpour]

I hope you are correct, we are sitting on a ton of cash at this point.

Mike,
You were a real bullish investor in real estate just few months ago and now sitting on a ton of cash! What happened to your bullishness? Are you capitulating now or you are still bullish but only on cash investment with %5 return? Did you give up and sold off all your real estate investment?

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Bernanke Clarifies Monetary Policy

Bernanke Clarifies Monetary Policy

http://news.morningstar.com/news/DJ/M11/D10/200611101030DOWJONESDJONLINE000651.html?t1=1163183759

Bernanke said money growth measures no longer play a key role in Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions, although the central bank still keeps one eye on the data for clues about the economy.

One problem is that between one-half and two-thirds of U.S. currency is held abroad, Bernanke said. As a result, there can be sharp changes in currency outstanding that is unrelated to domestic conditions.

 

[Couch Potato]

Proof.

I hope you are correct, we are sitting on a ton of cash at this point.

Mr. Neff sitting on cash is all the proof anyone should need that the national real estate market is not very good right now. :new_all_coholic:

 

[Randolph Kinney]

David Lereah: Housing Correction Has Further To Run

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B8E9F3A3D%2D702A%2D45C0%2DA226%2D3AE2F03032BF%7D&siteid=

Housing starts should fall 12% next year; prices should rise modestly

"We now have the most favorable market for home buyers in several years," Lereah said.

 

[DTB]

Everyone can relax, I have not gone over to the dark side. Just sold our lake house and finished a 700K project. Nothing has come along right now that we have wanted to buy.

Sorry Moh, our long term holdings remain long term. There is seldom a need to sell that cannot be overcome by other options.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

How about that loan Mike? Or were you just posturing, for show, like you are not really serious? I am thinking you are like David Lereah, the optimist, who said:

"We now have the most favorable market for home buyers in several years," Lereah said.

 

[DTB]

How about that loan Mike? Or were you just posturing, for show, like you are not really serious? I am thinking you are like David Lereah, the optimist, who said:

"We now have the most favorable market for home buyers in several years," Lereah said.

Terms are similar to when anyone wants a hard money loan. Submit a proposal, after review you will recieve an offer with specific terms if we choose to proceed.

It's all about the Benjamins, Randolph.

 

[moh malekpour]

Near a Bottom in Housing?

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6255.htm
If, as indicated by the supply-demand balance, the housing correction isn't near its bottom, then home prices still have further to fall. Falling home prices would imply much slower growth in home equity for households, which, in turn, would imply much less home equity available for withdrawal. As Chart 6 shows, mortgage equity withdrawal by households hit a record high annualized rate of $732 billion (8.1% of disposable personal income) in the third quarter of last year. As of the second quarter of this year, the annualized rate of mortgage equity withdrawal had slipped to $327 billion. Mortgage equity withdrawal, along with record corporate stock buybacks, has enabled households in recent years to spend in excess of their after-tax incomes (see "How Do Households Keep Spending More Than They Earn?"). Chart 6 shows that mortgage equity withdrawal is already slowing, and with the expected further decline in home prices, it is likely that withdrawals will slow even more in the quarters ahead.