Pam,
Your statement, "Skewed data????? What would the stats be WITHOUT those sales included???"
I do not know but am quite sure you have hundreds of instances in which values were reportedly overblown. So, why don't you tell us? Your anecdotal data is available to you. Are there are hundreds that you have gathered over the preceding months? How about telling us just how many?
THEN, after we bleed out all those who will NOT end up going under since too high a value does not automatically result in default, we can see just how this will actually affect the markets.
And BTW, I did not say the data was skewed- I just questioned the source-as I have many times before.
Terrell,
Your quote,
"Are sales still increasing like 9 mo. ago when this thread started? Who has been closer to right? Bubbleheads like Austin and me? "
Sales of existing homes increased for the last month reported- nothing dramatic, but an increase nonetheless.
As to who is right, you are waaaaay too early.
Next, "And I agree with Pam. Fraud and concessions are propping up prices. Take those away and the figures would be much worse."
Now all you have to do is to tell me how much worse. Of course fraud is a big concern. And, if concessions are as high as you claim (for existing housing) then you ought to be able to measure that, no?
So, forgive me while I disagree. I think that (and yes, it is a guess because I do not have the data anymore than you guys do) that even after you total up all the fraud and concessions they are not going to amount to a pimple of a gnat's *** in overall impact.
This is a market where a million homes (njationaloy) change hands per month. As serious as all this is, a few hundred or even a thousand fraud deals will just not move the overall market much, if any.
Moh,
You ask if I know something you do not. Actually it is not about knowing something; rather, it is about remembering something you already know.
Real estate markets move according to the basic underlying economics.
Supply- current oversupply in new construction. Yes. However, this oversupply will dry up, and I think by late 2007. Sorry, I know I am once again agreeing with the Maestro and that you think little of him. So be it. However, we will not escape the fact that every new home that does get built uses up one more available site. And no one is making more land very quickly.
Demand- remains strong. People have not stopped wanting a home.
Utility- unchanged for the most part.
Purchasing power- and that is what you are surmising will change. I do not think it will change that much. I do know that interest rates can go up and outlined one reason for that. BUT, if all these layoffs in construction hit home why isn't unemployment going up? Further, the revised GDP figures show a rapidly slowing overall economy if the trend holds, And, if that trend holds, you will not see short term rates change much to the upside. Add to that the ever declining US dollar that would cause rate increases now looks like it may only offset the slowing growth.
Further, even after how many rate increases (?) we still see the long term rates holding fairly steady. That is because Wall St. controls long term rates and not the Fed. Hence the inverted yield curves we have seen so frequently.
In the end, if what you all seek is to declare victory, just bloody well say so.
For my part, everything looks just like I expected. A correction underway and my prognostication is fully in line with the timing of other market corrections ending.
Now Terrell, this will probably just get you angry, but I AM MORE right than the bubbleheads- at least so far. Price declines have been moderate overall, so no bubble. And I disagree that percentages are not the only way to measure it- they absolutely ARE the way to measure it.
Come back to me towards the end of 2007 and THEN we will see what the history and the facts show. In the meantime, please spare me the anecdotal "proof" you guys keep offering. It is conjecture- at best.
Brad
Merry Christmas!
