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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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Somebody I know who knows nothing about investing was telling me last week he recently took his 401k and had put it into a number of smaller funds; he was tracking the funds on a daily basis and was trying to figure out how he could purchase individual stocks and track them.

I retold the story to my wife, and said I think it is time to short the market.

I didn't take any action, so I now need to find the "kick myself in the ***" emoticon.
 
not the best way to tackle new risks posed by the rapid growth of the hedge fund industry
These are not hedges, they are long shot derivatives with only 2 possible outcomes. Make money, Lose a LOT of money.. And who is buying into hedge funds? Nearly every tom dick and harry...your teacher retirement system, your pension funds, etc. Remember the Orange County debacle a few years ago? Long Term Capital and 1987? Watch the next week days and weeks for news of a hedge fund toppling over with a thud. and another. and another. And then a few weeks later the managers of some of those pension funds will sheepishly hold up their hand and say..."sorry, we goofed." This will ripple into the economy for some time to come. The stock market bounced right back in 1987 but if you recall, the economy reacted somewhat slower. This will have an impact upon the housing market, too. With the announcement by Freddy Mac that after Sept. they are tightening requirements on subprime loans, those loans are history for all practical purposes...so where are the subprime borrowers who have a loan now going to get financing? It dominos with interest rates they cannot pay...where can they turn for 'liquidity'...foreclosure city.
 
Will hedge funds fail as market declines continue?

Terrel, they have a new word or phrase to sell risky investments to mom and pop. It is called: Alternative investments or how to put lipstick on a frog.

Humpty Dumpty will tell you: "When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less." Humpty controls the rules of the game, with magical powers that weave spells over you. Remember when sweet innocent Alice challenged his authority: "The question is whether you can make words mean so many different things?" But Humpty simply replies: I am "the master, that's all" that counts.

Warning: "Alternative investments" is nothing but a new name tag that sugar-coats risky investments. It puts lipstick on ugly frogs to make them more appealing. But underneath you'll see the same old risky hedge funds, real estate deals, commodities, gold, currencies, derivatives, options and futures trading. And they can all be bundled up in a terrific sounding phrase called alternative investments or one simple hedge fund that covers the full gambit.

Tonight, many mom's and pop's will see and hear the news of global markets declining. Tomorrow, they will read how much that cost them and call their broker to bail them out now.

It could be the start of another dot com implosion. It is one way to soak up all the excess liquidity that the FED and the real estate markets provided.
 
lipstick on a frog.
we always said lipstick on a pig...in agriculture not to be mistaken for hog finishing equipment.

I think we will have quite a new call for controls on hedges coming within weeks. Clearly, some hedge funds will bleed green this week. One commentator was asked about hedges tonight on Nightly Business News, and he replied that the issue is 'opaque'..in other words, you simply cannot tell yet because Hedge funds are virtually unregulated.
 
Hey Austin what do you think about a 9% drop in Chinese market capitalization. Think that might impact the liquidity in the mortgage markets?

Terrel, regarding hedge funds: great minds think alike.:new_smile-l:

My favorite vision, however, is imagining the Teamster's Pension people sending a couple goons over to break some mortgage banker kneecaps over CDO losses. They had to crack some Merrill Lynch guy upside the head for the address.

The CALPERS ninja squad is waiting for their turn. :new_2gunsfiring_v1:
 
Carry trade unwinding roils currency markets - contagion spreads

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD649A4E9%2DFEB2%2D4BDB%2D93DF%2DBFEEE4CD4D10%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=nwhpm

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A sharp rally in the yen and the Swiss franc on Tuesday triggered by an almost 10% slump in Chinese shares serves as a reminder of the risk of a massive unwinding of carry trade positions.

Carry trade refers to the practice of speculators borrowing or selling lower-yielding currencies such as the yen or the Swiss franc at low costs and reinvesting in higher-return currencies and assets, such as the New Zealand dollar, the British pound and the South African rand.

"One of the things that carry trade relies on is relative low levels of volatility. Clearly the most recent catalyst has been the Chinese market meltdown triggering a meltdown in other emerging markets and basically a shift out of riskier assets into less risky assets."

The almost-free borrowing costs of the yen have also been responsible for financing massive bets in a variety of high-risk markets such as commodities and emerging markets. The carry trade is expected to be reversed as the Japanese economy strengthens and prices begin to rise.


"Over the past few years, the financial markets have become very speculative and highly leveraged. Today, we have seen the consequences of that aggressive risk appetite," said Kathy Lien, chief strategist at DailyFX.com. "Risk appetite is plunging as investors bail out of nearly all assets. Even gold has not escaped the liquidation."


Investors' risk appetite fell sharply in recent sessions on fears of the potential knock-on impact from subprime lending market woes and worries over Iran's nuclear plans. An almost 10% slump in Chinese shares overnight also encouraged traders to further unwind carry trade positions.

The massive build-up of carry trades over the past many years has led officials and economists to worry that a sharp reversal of these positions would have significant negative impact on financial markets.
 
My favorite vision, however, is imagining the Teamster's Pension people sending a couple goons over to break some mortgage banker kneecaps over CDO losses. They had to crack some Merrill Lynch guy upside the head for the address.
I'm hearing some rumors that might be happening / about to happen, but it won't be just some 'mortgage banker'.
 
I am a firm believer in a national and now global managed economy. This stuff is all being carefully orcherstated from deep inside a bunker somewhere. For example, why would Greenspan go to the far East and predict a recession in late 2007? He could have done that at Joe's Bar down the street. We have known for a long time that the Chinese currence is under valued and that the exchange rate was emerging as the weapon of choice. I see a currency play here and intrigue lurking in the shadows. Follow the trail of the speculators to see where the action is. My dad always says: "if you want to find a good place to eat, follow a fat man."
 
This is all about the risk factor. Risk is the main factor of any investment and sometimes the life. You take the risk factor out and you can do anything you want. More risk you take, more dangerous you are. You can become rich or poor overnight. Risk used to be the gambler’s trait. It appears that last few years investors and the whole world embraced it as if there was no such a thing as risk. You could see a traditional prudent bank or lending organization in market casino gambling like a drunken fool and that was what you got: Sub prime collapse, Real estate market bust, stock crash and more to come. All of these risky and monkey business will end up in recession and then it will teach those investors and bankers that the risk is there and kicking and will get them real hard.
 
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