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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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Moh,

Quoting Greensopan? I am proud of you!

So, here is my question: What happens when we get into or near a recession?

The Fed lowers rates and makes money more affordable.

Might that solve some of the problems with adjustables resetting based on the LIBOR rate that most lenders use?

that is, of course, IF it happens.

Brad
No Brad, lowering interest rates will not help immediately. House prices have declined sufficiently enough where lower interest rates will not save a borrower from a reset. Credit availability has been reduced. If the FICO score is not high enough or if the home value is not high enough or if the loan program that makes the deal work is not available, those people are caught. Lowering interest rates, to use a well known expression, is like pushing on a string; the people who need to borrow, can't. The people who are able to borrow, won't. That's what happened in 2001-02. The FED lowered interest rates but it was the lenders lowering credit standards that really got the ball rolling and we see how that has played out today.
 
Moh,

Quoting Greensopan? I am proud of you!

So, here is my question: What happens when we get into or near a recession?

The Fed lowers rates and makes money more affordable.

Might that solve some of the problems with adjustables resetting based on the LIBOR rate that most lenders use?

that is, of course, IF it happens.

Brad

Well, he told the whole world last week that it is possible but not probable that we get a recession by the end of this year . Now, a week later, he is saying that it is one third probable that we get recession this year. so, he is gradually getting closer to tell the truth and nothing but the truth about the economy. It seems that he has been rehabilated after he got out of the government.
 
All this debate about whether we are/are not seeing the "bubble" burst...Again, my point is proven - when ALL the analysts agree that the market is going to be bad - it's ALREADY bad - we've already seen the bottom. Same thing when it's on it's way up. Same thing in the stock market. Once the consensus of all the so called experts and watercooler pundits is reached we are already AT the extreme, already stabilizing, already ready to make the turn in the other direction.

Our society is Reactive not Proactive. Yes, even the experts.

Homebuilders have historically been slow to act. Some of you have quoted the fact that housing starts are down as a sign that we are in for trouble ahead - here's the deal: It's a GOOD thing that housing starts are down. This means the builders have finally caught on and there will be less supply - this will help to continue to stablize the market. In the Greater Sacramento area - inventory of both new and used homes is dropping, some builders in certain pockets have been selling at cost or even at a loss (for some of the areas where they overpurchased 2-3 years ago) - they will not continue to do this. They will simply supply fewer homes by waiting to purchase new land and possibly sitting on existing land. Then when demand picks up it will take them 2 years to catch up because of all the building restrictions in CA. So I see us in the same cycle all over again.

Check out this article: http://www.nbnnews.com/NBN/issues/2007-03-05/Front+Page/index.html "Procrastinating Home Buyers may Lose Price Advantage" :
"Excess units on the market are already beginning to dwindle, and prices are expected to stabilize by the middle of the year, the report concludes."

It's easy to find the doom and gloom articles out there cause that's what sells papers.

Here's a question: Everyone's freaking out about the ARMS starting to adjust, yet rates aren't much higher than they were when these folks purchased 3-5 years ago. Yes, values have gone down in the past year but that doesn't mean that these folks are upside down. Example: A person that purchased 5 years ago in CA with a 5/1 and saw 20 - 40% per year value increases in their home is now facing an adjustment to their payment. Yes, the value in their home may be down 20% from last year, but they still made a good chunk of equity (over 60% if they didn't cash out). Now, they can refi again into another 5 years. Even if they cashed some out along the way - only the most risky of borrowers cashed it ALL out. So shouldn't that be GOOD for business?

On the sales side - I'm seeing prospects in the market that fit this profile that are ready for an upgrade. Even if they're at minimal equity in their current home - they see now as the perfect time to upgrade while pricing has come down and rates are still just slightly above the historic lows we got used to.

Buy Low, Sell High.
 
Bernanke calls for changing GSEs' portfolios

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fed-bernanke-calls-changing-gses/story.aspx?guid=%7B03A21F17%2D29BC%2D48F6%2DB05C%2D1BB778F19E26%7D

Speaking via satellite to an Independent Community Bankers of America convention, Bernanke said that the portfolios currently held by the companies "continue to represent a potentially significant source of systemic risk."

Together, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hold about $1.4 trillion in investment portfolios.

The Fed chairman also said he supports giving the companies' regulator stronger supervisory powers and receivership power.

Bernanke's predecessor, Alan Greenspan, was also critical of the size of the companies' holdings, saying it posed risks to the financial markets.

Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still in the process of returning to regular financial reporting after weathering company-rocking accounting scandals. Freddie Mac was forced to restate $5 billion in earnings, while Fannie Mae's earnings were cut by $6.3 billion after a multi-year restatement.
 
That was a good 3rd post, Carri (Velocity).

The anti-bubble theory posters dropped out for the most part. Posting is less of a hobby for most of them. I am a potential bubble activist:), but my standard requires the convergence of one more event-a kick butt jobs recession. Combine that with an interest rate spike & the market pigs will really be squealing.

My conversion to potential bubble activist is recent and based upon the blood on the street represented by the sub-prime investor fate. Now, that was a bubble bursting (their bubble):rof:

Either way, count me in as friends of the establishment......or comrade of the revolution, if things really go whacky. I'm just not taking point on purpose.
 
Treasury's Ryan urges sound hedge fund risk-management

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/treasurys-ryan-urges-sound-hedge/story.aspx?guid=%7B4616E43C%2DB166%2D4011%2DB5F4%2DFB644CC6C9E6%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Hedge fund managers should make sure they devote sufficient resources to their funds' valuation and risk-management systems to guard against the various kinds of risks facing the lightly regulated investment pools, a top U.S. Treasury official said Tuesday. Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Anthony Ryan's speech to the World Hedge Fund Forum reiterated recommendations by a presidential group about guarding markets from systemic risk through market discipline and regulation. Ryan said regulators must monitor the over-the-counter derivatives market "and revise their policies and associated guidance, as appropriate."
 
Pending home sales fall 4.1% in Jan.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/pending-home-sales-fall-41/story.aspx?guid=%7B7FC62974%2D7D79%2D4F56%2DB5DC%2DBD3B7D099245%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A gauge of future home buying declined in January, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. The pending home sales index fell 4.1% in January after a 4.5% rise in December. The index is down 8.9% in the past year. David Lereah, chief economist for the realtors' group, said he detected "an underlying pattern of stabilization in the housing market." He noted that the pending home sale index has recovered from a low in October. Lereah said unusual weather this winter might distort the picture of the housing market for several months, "but a modest recovery is likely."
 
Randolph,

"No Brad, lowering interest rates will not help immediately. House prices have declined sufficiently enough where lower interest rates will not save a borrower from a reset. Credit availability has been reduced. If the FICO score is not high enough or if the home value is not high enough or if the loan program that makes the deal work is not available, those people are caught."

First, I asked Moh- I already knew your answer.

Second- where did the house prices decline? You have about as much of a chance of being wrong as being right on that.

Third- how many people are caught- I'll accept percentages.

Brad
 
Moh,

Here is an excerpt from an Alt-A article:

"Impac Mortgage Holdings, Inc. Clarifies Position as an Alt-A Lender and Misconceptions in the Market Place

IRVINE, Calif., March 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The following is in response to recent media reports that have had an adverse impact upon our common stock price, Impac Mortgage Holdings, (Nachrichten) Inc. , or the "Company", a Maryland corporation being taxed as a real estate investment trust ("REIT"):

1) Impac is an Alt-A Lender. Substantially all of the mortgages we originate or acquire are Alt-A loans. We define Alt-A loans as mortgages made to borrowers whose credit is generally within Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guidelines, but have loan characteristics that make them non-conforming under those guidelines. As of the fourth quarter 2006, 99.8% of the loans held in our portfolio had a credit grade of A or A-, which means that the credit rating exceeded 620, with a weighted average loan-to-value ratio of 74%. As of December 31, 2006, the weighted average credit score of the Alt-A loans in our portfolio (i.e. the long-term investment operations) was 697. During 2006, subprime mortgages represented 0.4% of acquisitions and 0.2% of the ending securitized mortgage collateral. We define subprime mortgages made to borrowers with credit ratings less than 620, or other characteristics, that increase the credit risk. In addition, the major credit rating agencies, mortgage bond investors and our industry identify the Company as an Alt-A lender.

2) The Company's liquidity position is strong. At December 31, 2006, the Company reported approximately $180.0 million in cash and cash equivalents. Further, the Company has additional liquidity of approximately $75.0 million in equity invested in mortgage loans held-for-sale and other liquidity sources at the Company's disposal.

3) Estimated taxable income is the primary indicator for common stock dividends. During 2006, the Company had estimated taxable income of $79.5 million, or $1.05 per diluted common share. During 2006, we paid common stock dividends of $72.3 million, or $0.95 per diluted common share.

4) Estimated taxable income during the fourth quarter 2006 was generated entirely from the balance sheet at the REIT and did not include a dividend from our taxable REIT subsidiary.

5) The Company believes it has sufficient financing under its reverse repurchase agreements to meet its ongoing origination and funding needs.

6) The Company continues to meet all of its loan repurchase obligations. In the future we expect loan repurchase obligations to decline based on a reduction in whole loan sales and improved credit and duration characteristics. Since January 2006, we have tightened our underwriting guidelines 20 times, which resulted in a 40% decline in total production primarily related to bulk acquisitions. Although total acquisitions and originations declined, we believe we have benefited from an improved credit risk and duration profile. We believe this was validated by the securitization market where despite one of the more turbulent credit spread environments in recent history, Impac executed its most recent securitization with the tightest bond spreads it has experienced in over a year.

7) The restatements for 2004 - 2005, as previously described in our Form 8-K filed on February 23, 2007 has no effect on the Company's net earnings, cash position, stockholders' equity or taxable income.

In summary:

Mr. Tomkinson commented, "It is unfortunate for our stockholders that the Company continues to be put in the same category as subprime lenders, when essentially we have no exposure to subprime loans. In anticipation of a downturn in the industry, Impac, since January 2006, began increasing its loan loss reserves, preserving capital, increasing its pricing and tightening its underwriting guidelines with the intent to further improve the performance of our Alt-A mortgage portfolio."

Mr. Tomkinson concluded, "We believe that the Company has adequately prepared for this challenging market. We believe that the Company is well capitalized, diversified in its business segments and has the expertise to manage through this lending cycle."


Hope that clarifies things

Brad
 
Let us all bow our heads and give thanks to the Lord FICO.
 
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