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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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Citi Bank says fire everybody and move to India..

March 26, 2007
Citigroup Plans to Shed Thousands of Jobs
By HEATHER TIMMONS and ERIC DASH
NEW DELHI, March 26 — Under pressure from shareholders, Citigroup is planning to shed thousands of jobs and sharpen its focus on its operations outside North America.

The colossal bank will get most of its growth from its international operations, chief executive Charles O. Prince told thousands of employees in India today, as he wrapped up a tour of Asia.

Mr. Prince’s stop in India comes just weeks before Citigroup will announce a broad restructuring plan that could involve the elimination or relocation of as many as 15,000 high-cost jobs from areas including New York, London and Hong Kong, several executives briefed on the matter say. The net job loss could be 10,000 to 12,000, some through attrition.

Citi’s consumer operations will be hardest hit, with front line and back office operations affected, they say. The corporate and investment banking businesses may be hard hit, with several thousand jobs lost, they say.

Managers in these units have been asked to review highly paid employees and look for places to cut fat, particularly just below managing director level.

The job cuts are part of a company-wide review sparked by the chief operating officer Robert Druskin, who two months ago decided to examine expenses and operations across the entire bank. A press release about the restructuring is due out in mid-April, executives say.

Citigroup, like other global banks, has been expanding its outsourcing in India beyond consumer services like bill payment, to include highly skilled areas like research, investment banking and credit analysis of non-Indian companies and deals.

Citigroup has over 600 such employees in India, and it is growing that number gradually.

With the restructuring, some jobs may also be moving to less expensive cities in the United States, like Buffalo, New York, Warren, New Jersey and the suburbs of Cincinnati, Ohio.

Citigroup, which employs more than 325,000 globally, is expected to save $1 billion in costs with the coming cuts.

Citigroup already has about 22,000 employees in India, making it one of the largest foreign banks there. Mr. Prince said today that India had been the single biggest driver of growth for Citigroup’s international operations. Managers in India were not asked to review their operations for possible cuts.

Mr. Prince spoke about the bank’s international growth to over 3,000 employees in India today, in a live town hall meeting in Mumbai and through conference calls with 30 other Indian cities. Mr. Prince and his wife Margaret Wolff are hosting a dinner today in Delhi for several hundred government officials and business executives.

Citigroup has been under pressure to cut costs and grow profits, after being dogged with problems from regulatory lapses to increased competition. Several analysts have suggested that the colossal bank is worth more in parts than together.

Mr. Prince seemed to refute that idea today, when he reiterated his “One Citi” mantra, telling employees that the bank should greet clients with one face.

International operations are already a big portion of Citigroup’s business: the bank’s international revenues in the fourth quarter of 2006 were $9.98 billion, or just over 40 percent of total revenues. International net income was $2.04 billion, just under 40 percent of the total.

International consumer operations brought in $4.95 billion in revenues in the fourth quarter of 2006, versus $7.96 billion from United States consumer operations.

However, in corporate and investment banking international operations provided more than half of Citigroup’s revenues, or $4.66 billion of a total $7.08 billion.

Citigroup will focus on two or three countries outside North America for growth, Mr. Prince said today, including India.

It is unclear how many of the relocated jobs could be moved to India, and Mr. Prince did not mention job cuts during his speech today. His speech was greeted with "rounds and rounds" of applause in Mumbai, said one person who listened to his speech.

Citigroup has 12,000 people on the ground in India in its business process outsourcing division, which processes credit card and mortgage payments and performs other back office functions. Sanjay Nayar, the Citigroup India head, told employees this month that the bank expects to grow that division by 200 employees a month, though that figure takes into account a very high turnover of employees.

Citigroup also has another 10,000 employees in India who work in 39 retail bank branches and 400 Citifinancial offices, as well as corporate and investment banking, private banking and wealth advisory.

During his town hall meeting, Mr. Prince gave an unexpected nod to John Reed, the former Citibank chief who tumultuously shared the top spot at Citigroup with Sanford Weill after it merged with Travelers Group.

Mr. Reed had often stressed that the future of banking would depend heavily on the internet, Mr. Prince told the India town meeting, a prediction that is bearing fruit.
 
The humor and irony for those claiming no significant impact on the economy....

You didn't read it right. He didn't say it would have no significant impact. He said it would not overwhelm the positive things that are happening in the economy. Whether he is right or not will depend on how positive those things remain for the next couple of quarters and whether or not some other major impact hits (no one can predict the future).
 
This reminds me 1989..Everything was just peachy with the economy humming along and all was well , wham , It all stopped on October 1989..Next stop , recession.We will have the big R , 4th Quarter.Don't tell anyone..
 
You didn't read it right. He didn't say it would have no significant impact. He said it would not overwhelm the positive things that are happening in the economy. Whether he is right or not will depend on how positive those things remain for the next couple of quarters and whether or not some other major impact hits (no one can predict the future).
Again, double-think. If the thought is to have a significant impact that is less than overwhelming, how significant was it? Barely above insignificant so as to not be overwhelming? :Eyecrazy:

The housing and mortgage related problems, much to the chagrin of the NAR and other cheerleaders, are worsening. They are not getting better.

The only data we have on the economy as a whole is 4Q 2006 GDP released JANUARY 31, 2007, which indicated an annual rate of growth of 3.5 percent. It was since revised down, released FEBRUARY 28, 2007, which indicated an annual rate of growth of 2.2 percent. It appears that GDP growth has been slowing. Real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, state and local government spending, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and residential fixed investment.

It appears that continuing increased consumer spending is the linchpin for the economy going forward. Housing was a drag in 4Q but it is a bigger drag in 1Q 2007. And, to the degree that cash out refinance of home mortgages supported consumer spending last year, it will be less this year.

I dunno Steve, looks like GDP is slowing down to the point that job creation is not enough to keep unemployment from rising.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department will give its final measure of fourth-quarter GDP. Analysts are forecasting a reading of 2.2 percent growth, in line with the government's previous estimate. If the GDP is revised lower, worries could arise that core inflation - which rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ending in January - is outpacing GDP growth by too much, and that the Fed might lean toward a rate hike later in the year to curb rising costs.
 
And I predict these incidents of higher growth estimates later revised downward will continue so that it does not appear quite as bad as it is. and I predict that even if the economy bounces back next year, look for housing to remain slow..and the investor/speculators will move into the oil and commodities markets particularly corn based ethanol and petroleum exploration.
Also, with the Presidential season coming, the boys will be coming home from Iraq sooner or later and they will need jobs and training at a time when defense spending will be dropping.
 
What's wrong with this picture?

Looking at a composite of exiting home sales data, new home sales data, starts and permits, it seems that existing home sales stands out like a proverbial "sore thumb".

0703261.png

SAAR is an abbreviation for Seasonally Adjusted Annual sales Rate.

New home sales were 848,000 annual rate for February 2007 and falling. Existing home sales were 6.69 million annual rate for February 2007 and rising. What's wrong with this picture? The ratio of new home sales to existing home sales has been getting smaller and smaller since 2005.

Which market is out of touch with reality, new home or existing home?

If there needs to be a correction to bring the two markets back to normal ratios, which market is going to correct and by how much and when?
 
Again, double-think. If the thought is to have a significant impact that is less than overwhelming, how significant was it? Barely above insignificant so as to not be overwhelming? :Eyecrazy:

Like the witch in the Little Mermaid said: Complicated, ain't it?

Moh accuses me of being Polyannaish; I'm not. There is significant possibility we are headed toward recession. However, you have to look at the whole picture. Will GDP fail to generate enough job growth to keep unemployment low? Well, we'll know that when the higher figures come in.

There isn't much profit in building and selling a new home right now. Inventories are up and prices are suffering from downward pressure in many markets. Therefore, it is no big surprise that existing home sales "stick out like a sore thumb."
 
Like the witch in the Little Mermaid said: Complicated, ain't it?

Moh accuses me of being Polyannaish; I'm not. There is significant possibility we are headed toward recession. However, you have to look at the whole picture. Will GDP fail to generate enough job growth to keep unemployment low? Well, we'll know that when the higher figures come in.

There isn't much profit in building and selling a new home right now. Inventories are up and prices are suffering from downward pressure in many markets. Therefore, it is no big surprise that existing home sales "stick out like a sore thumb."
Are you waiting for higher figures GDP? good luck. Last few years, we had 3.5, 4, 5% GDP growth. Do you think we are going to get it this time? we are lucky if we get 2.5% GDP. That is nothing. when you look at the GDP growth, you got to consider its relationship with outstanding debt and credit leverage. There used to be an stable relationship between GDP and money, credit and debt growth. In 1987, the outstanding debt in the US was 10.5 billion, 20 years later, that amount is 42 billion and this doesn’t count some highly leveraged hedge funds with trillions of outstanding debts. The debt amount is up 317% of GDP
Do you think this is going to lift up the GDP? http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adsLkS5Kr3mw&refer=home
March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Lennar Corp., the largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, said earnings plummeted 73 percent in the fiscal first-quarter as demand waned in the worst housing slump in more than a decade.
earning plummeted 73% is a big loss.
 
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Tip of the iceberg folks, tip of the iceberg. Remember all those illegals getting no-doc loans to buy homes at the peak? The ones employed by the REIC to build homes for more suckers? Well, they'll be zipping home now, turning in the keys, walking away, and saying "adios!" to a country of bagholders.
 
Immigrants are emerging as among the first victims of a growing wave of home foreclosures in the Washington area as mortgage lending problems multiply locally and across the country.


Nationally, 375,000 high-interest-rate loans were made to Hispanics in 2005, and nearly 73,000 of them are likely to go into foreclosure, said Aracely Panameno, director of Latino affairs for the Center for Responsible Lending. About 1.1 million homes in the United States are expected to go into foreclosure in the next six years, and many native-born Americans are likely to be stuck with burdensome loans. But immigrants are getting hit first in part because their incomes tend to be lower and many have lost construction jobs.



Homeownership rates among immigrants surged in the first half of the decade, making their prosperity an economic success story. Now it is becoming apparent that many people managed to buy homes in an inflated real estate market by turning to unusual new mortgages only now receiving scrutiny from regulators and legislators. Many of these loans start with attractive low "teaser" rates but feature payments that can suddenly increase.



Unfamiliar with the U.S. mortgage market, unable to speak or read English well and vulnerable to the blandishments of real estate professionals who told them property values always rise, many immigrants are struggling to deal with high mortgage payments as their homes sag in value, making it harder to escape the loans by selling.
 
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