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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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Greg,

From that article is an incorrect definition of Alt-A, it said:
"It's not something you hit on your computer keyboard. It's a catchall loan category between the prime (for consumers with good credit) and subprime (for consumers with poor credit histories).

Alt-A loans nowadays are for consumers who don't submit all the documentation that would be required to qualify for a traditional straight loan. They're usually chosen by people with unsteady sources of income. Their credit scores generally range from 620 to 680. (Folks who get the best rates in the prime category usually have a credit score of at least 720, according to the Office of Thrift Supervision.)"

It is ONLY for borrowers with good credit and refers only to the level of documentation and NOT the credit score. So, most of the second paragraph is correct (I do not know the credit score range for those folks so the entire paragraph might be right or only a part of it). The last sentence is correct.

And it is often chosen by folks with regular income levels only the levels vary some- it is not necessarily "unstable", just variable. My income is very stable yet I did an Alt-A loan for reasons I choose to keep private. I will tell you my mortgage FICO when I did it- 838. One's FICO will vary according to the type of credit- for example at the very same time my auto purchase/finance FICO was about 740.

Indymac's Alt-A average credit score for all Alt-A is over 700. Its actual credit losses attendant to those loans from 2002-2006 was .881 of one basis point. That is right- under one basis point. If we triple the credit losses we are still under the industry average. Right now credit losses on Alt-A are 1/17th of sub-prime losses.

So, you think we might go out of business, eh? I'll bet you any amount of money you care to wager- the bigger the better- that your assumption is wrong.

About the only thing the OC Register got right are the comments from the outside analyst when he said that it hardly matters what the actual credit profile is on a loan when you go to sell it IF Wall St. will not pay a fair price for it. THAT is what is going on for sure and I've said that repeatedly.

The OC analyst, however, ought to be fired for being an imbecile.

Brad
 
Brad, I find your comments very interesting on how you view Indymac's finanicals. However, the following is what I picked out of the OC article:
In IndyMac's case, its 75 percent expansion of bad loans in the first quarter far outpaces its 8 percent increase in loss reserves to $68 million.

In that time, IndyMac's sour loans and foreclosed real estate ballooned 75 percent to $324 million.
The author has made a case that Indymac is under reserving for bad loans and that bad loans have increased significantly. The scary part is that loans are going bad and increasingly so.
 
Weak spring may drive home prices lower

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={32193FE4-4EC0-4F9B-8FD2-D6099DF8942A}&siteid=nbk

Tough sales season, rising inventories further pressure housing market

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- A spring home-selling season that's looking like a bust and pressure from growing inventories of houses in the resale market should intensify home-price declines in the second half of 2007, Wall Street analysts say.


"We think the housing downturn has decisively moved to its second act of falling prices," wrote Deutsche Bank in a report to clients Monday.

Problems in the subprime loan market and the resulting stricter lending standards are impacting the entire housing "food chain," according to luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc.

"With the first act consisting of significant retrenchments in volumes, the second act is one with home prices falling back to more equilibrium levels after a period of breathtaking increases during the housing boom," Deutsche Bank said.

Deutsche Bank said home builders have found some shelter from the housing pullback in the larger market for existing homes. "Existing-home prices have proven sticky so far in the housing downturn," the analysts wrote.


However, they think prices in the resale market "may begin to retreat in the second half of the year, as existing-home owners face a second [disappointing] spring season and as competition from a surge of resale listings increases."


As existing home sellers throw in the towel, that could put more pressure on the builders of new homes to match the lower prices and remain competitive. Additionally, resale listings have risen "dramatically during the spring selling season" which could further pressure prices, Deutsche Bank said.
 
The bubble busted in this area for subprimes about two years ago. I have been following this observing who the losers/lenders are. The lender that appears most in public records as the note holder on foreclures is Deutsche Bank. I have never heard of them but they took a licking around here like you would not believe. I have seen scores of loans like for example: Two years ago or less the property was purchased at $58,000. Then 18 months later Deutsche Bank foreclosed and listed the property for sale at $25,000. I asked myself why if they had an appraisal 18 months ago sufficient to support a purchase price at $58,000 would they list the property for sale at $25,000.
Another question I have is why is an analyst from this bank writing the above article on falling house prices when they have contributed to that happening more than any other lender I know of? Maybe that is why.
 
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The bubble busted in this area for subprimes about two years ago. I have been following this observing who the losers/lenders are. The lender that appears most in public records as the note holder on foreclures is Deutsche Bank. I have never heard of them but they took a licking around here like you would not believe. I have seen scores of loans like for example: Two years ago or less the property was purchased at $58,000. Then 18 months later Deutsche Bank foreclosed and listed the property for sale at $25,000. I asked myself why if they had an appraisal 18 months ago sufficient to support a purchase price at $58,000 would they list the property for sale at $25,000.
Another question I have is why is an analyst from this bank writing the above article on falling house prices when they have contributed to that happening more than any other lender I know of? Maybe that is why.
I see the same here, Deutsche Bank is listed as the owner for foreclosed homes in a number of cases. They are a German bank. Maybe it really does pay to know the local market? :shrug:

Deutsche Bank also has a securities division, which this analyst works for and is independent of their lending division.

[SIZE=-1]Deutsche Bank Group, one of the world's leading financial service providers.

[/SIZE]http://www.db.com/index_e.htm
 
I've done REO'S with the owner as Deutsche Bank , however , the client is not them but another large lender.
 
Banks tightening mortgage-lending standards

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/banks-tightening-mortgage-lending-standards-fed/story.aspx?guid=%7B942931A7%2D1712%2D4162%2D8AFF%2DDAA8A491D96C%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. banks dramatically tightened their standards for approving residential mortgages in the first quarter, the Federal Reserve said Monday.


In particular, banks made it harder to get subprime residential mortgage loans and nontraditional loans such as interest-only loans, the Fed reported.


All told, at least 23 of the 53 domestic banks surveyed, or 43%, tightened their mortgage lending standards, up from 16% in the fourth quarter. The latest data are not strictly comparable to previous numbers, because the Fed has changed the wording of its questionnaire.

In its quarterly senior loan officer survey, the Fed said 31% of banks surveyed "considerably" tightened credit standards for subprime loans, while 25% of banks tightened those rules "somewhat." None eased standards.

For non-traditional residential mortgages, credit standards also went up. Eleven percent tightened those standards considerably, while 34% tightened somewhat, the central bank said. No bank surveyed eased standards for those loans.

Meanwhile, 15% of banks tightened credit standards somewhat for prime residential mortgages.


Over the past three months, demand for all three types of mortgage loans has weakened, the Fed report shows. Twenty-eight percent of banks reported "moderately weaker" demand for prime mortgages, 29% of banks said demand for non-traditional mortgages was moderately weaker and 19% of banks said demand for subprime mortgages had weakened moderately. Meanwhile, 12.5% of banks said demand for subprime loans had gone down substantially.
 
Randolph,

OK- I guess we under-reserved.

So that would be why S+P just raised its rating on our stock from sell to hold?

And that would be why our paper is rated (within the last 60 days) as full investment grade by Fitch, Moody's and S&P?

We have all been expecting increased defaults, foreclosures and increased credit losses- but it is all planned out (since mid 2006).

No- the OC Register got it wrong- that is all.

Brad
 
Brad,
And that would be why our paper is rated (within the last 60 days) as full investment grade by Fitch, Moody's and S&P?
What does Fitch rating of BBB- stand for? Is it a good rating?
 
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Accredited Home dips as "significant" loss seen

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070514:MTFH42756_2007-05-14_14-15-25_N14266156&type=comktNews&rpc=44

NEW YORK, May 14 (Reuters) - Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. shares dipped on Monday after the struggling subprime mortgage lender projected a "significant" first-quarter loss and cut 1,300 jobs, but said it ended March with more than $350 million of available cash.

In a filing late Friday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, San Diego-based Accredited Home said it cut its work force to 2,900 as of March 31 from 4,200 at year end, to slash costs amid a "turbulent mortgage industry."

Delinquent loans as a percentage of loans serviced more than tripled to 8.96 percent from 2.85 percent a year earlier. Accredited Home said results were also hurt by its Oct. 1 purchase of Los Angeles subprime lender Aames Investment Corp.
 
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