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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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OceanFirst Shuts Subprime Unit, Top Officers Leave After Hiding Defaults

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aOPeIKv0xLbc&refer=us

May 17 (Bloomberg) -- OceanFirst Financial Corp., a New Jersey-based banking company, will shut its subprime mortgage business and said the unit's president resigned after defaults were hidden from top management.


The bank blamed loans it made to borrowers who weren't required to document their income, according to a presentation for investors included in a federal regulatory filing today. The mortgages covered as much as 100 percent of a property's value.


OceanFirst said some of the loans made in 2006 quickly soured, and unnamed officials at the Columbia Home Loans unit ``concealed'' the defaults until February 2007. New subprime loans were halted by the bank in March, and OceanFirst has taken $21.6 million in charges.


``Those responsible for suppression of the information were terminated,'' the Toms River-based bank said, adding that it found ``no widespread evidence of fraud'' and the losses don't threaten continuing operations. An independent forensic probe is being conducted, with results expected ``after midyear.''
 
This is a scary statement...

"Credit spreads continue to go tighter, with the market seemingly learning to live with the constant speculation surrounding possible bid targets," said Suki Mann, senior credit strategist at Société Générale in London. "We're either heading for a spectacular collapse, which would likely be brought about by a major event impacting the global financial system, or we are going to stay like this for a while. We go for the latter."
 
How small investors lend shares to hard-pressed short sellers

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={C226EABF-1B09-4855-B555-86759223CD96}&siteid=nbs

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The hedge fund boom rarely presents new money-making opportunities for individual investors.


Now, however, increasing competition in one corner of the business is giving retail shareholders the chance to generate extra cash from the assets in their brokerage accounts.


Short selling, in which traders bet against stocks, has become more competitive in recent years as hedge fund assets soar and managers proliferate. Short sellers borrow a stock, betting its price will fall. When they return the shares to the lender at the original price, they profit from the difference.

Usually, institutions with big, long-term stakes in companies earn interest in exchange for lending their stock to Wall Street firms. Those investment banks then lend the securities on again to short sellers at a higher rate. But with more hedge fund managers searching for profitable short trades, some stocks have become much more difficult to borrow.


The trend has encouraged brokerage firms to offer to pay retail investors to lend their shares too.

Charles Schwab, the largest discount broker, runs a service in which it offers to pay customers interest on any loans of hard-to-borrow stocks from their brokerage accounts. The rate varies, depending on how much demand there is to borrow the stock.

Schwab, which launched its Securities Lending Fully Paid Program in 2004, markets the service to investors and financial advisers, summing it up in a brochure entitled "Hard-to-find stocks. Hard-to-resist opportunities."


The firm also draws up a list of dozens of hard-to-borrow stocks. A recent copy of the list obtained by MarketWatch contains 76 stocks.

Homebuilders such as KB Home, Brookfield Homes and Dominion Homes are also on the list, along with mortgage lenders like IndyMac Bancorp, Delta Financial and American Home Mortgage.
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The short interest in IndyMac has been building all year and now stands at approximately 35% of outstanding shares, a substantial amount.

The trailing P/E for IndyMac is around 6.41 and the dividend yield is around 6.46%. Moody's, Fitch, Standard & Poors, and Dunn & Bradstreet all rate the company as a BBB- from last June through the most recent by Fitch as of April 2007.

It is clear the hedge funds would like to sell short more IndyMac shares if they can get them. For those who want to take a gamble, buy IndyMac and loan the short sellers the stock.
 
The Five Stages of Grief for Home Sellers

  • Denial - “My house is worth a lot more than that!”
  • Anger - “That Realtor isn’t doing any work at all to sell my house!”
  • Bargaining - “Okay, if I can just break even.”
  • Depression - “I was a fool to buy this house.”
  • Acceptance - “Its not my fault. I don’t control the market. I can’t afford to sell now, but in the meantime I’ll be living in a beautiful home.”
 
RE; Existing homes

Murray, you can read an article on this at:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601206&sid=a3dYTIjylQW4&refer=realestate

Data is being skewed as reported by DataQuick and NAR. If you don't do the analysis, just reporting the median or mean prices distorts what is going. Some people believe that prices are increasing. The move up market is stalling out because the entry-level market has collapsed. Couple that with the data of new homes and ask yourself, "Why is it that new home prices are falling so much and existing home sale prices are rising?"
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Thanks Randolph.
 
Calif.'s jobless rate jumps to 5.1%

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-caljobs19may19,1,4185122.story?coll=la-headlines-business
California's jobless rate jumped to 5.1% in April after holding steady at 4.8% for several months, California's jobless rate jumped to 5.1% in April after holding steady at 4.8% for several months, a deterioration due in part to the ongoing slump in home construction, state figures released today show.

The increase in the unemployment rate occurred as California firms added an anemic 7,400 jobs -- not enough to absorb all laid-off workers and new job hunters.

The number of people looking for work rose to 934,000, up 58,000 from March and 41,000 from a year earlier, according to the state Employment Development Department. Of the unemployed, 362,100 were laid off.

Five of 11 job categories reported shrinking payrolls in April, shedding a total of 11,400 jobs. The information category posted the biggest loss at 6,800 jobs, followed by construction, which shed 3,000. Financial activities employers cut 700 jobs. The category includes sub-prime mortgage lenders, several of which initiated layoffs in recent months.
 
Its not my fault
Classic. See my sig. They claim to be RE geniuses if they flip for a profit. But its someone else's fault if they lose money.
 
Risky second home loans seen weighing on U.S. housing

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1734801220070517
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Secondary homes are becoming a primary problem for the hard-hit U.S. housing market.

The housing industry is worried that a surge of foreclosures seen in the subprime sector could percolate upward. If it does, it is likely to show up next in the "Alt-A" loan market for second homes.

The fear is that when many adjustable rate mortgages are fixed at higher rates borrowers could fall quickly into arrears.
"Investors have been much more heavy users of option ARMs than of other kinds of products and they were in the Alt-A space," said Douglas Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, in industry trade group based in Washington D.C.

Whether for investment or vacation purposes, second homes backed by "Alt-A" loans are at a higher risk of defaulting than traditional mortgages.

"If you reside in a home, it is much more probable that you will make your payments on time as opposed to an investment property," Duncan said.

As a result, "you're going to see some slowing in second homes simply because you're not getting the equity accumulation in the first mortgage on the first home than you would've three or four years ago."

These "Alt-A" loans, which is short for "Alternative-A," often go to borrowers who cannot provide full documentation of income or assets to lenders. The option ARM, or adjustable-rate mortgage, offers a low payment that does not even cover interests costs, leaving borrowers each month deeper in debt. Continued
 
Subprime delinquencies higher than reported

http://blogs.ocregister.com/mortgage/

Forget that 13% subprime delinquency number you heard about so much in the press and which some politicos and real estate folks turned on its head pointing out 87% of subprime borrowers are paying their mortgage.


I took another look at the transcript from the first-quarter conference call of IndyMac Bancorp, and caught this statement from CEO Michael Perry:

"On subprime loans, one of the things that I think people aren’t aware of is that the Mortgage Bankers Association basically classifies the lender as a prime lender or a subprime lender. So for example, they classify IndyMac and Countrywide as prime lenders, and they classify New Century or whoever as a subprime lender. And all of their servicing portfolio is considered prime or subprime for the MBA. Ok? And so when you see that delinquency number in the press of 13% subprime delinquencies, it’s hugely understated. It is absolutely hugely understated. And the prime delinquencies are overstated.The subprime delinquencies are more like 18, 20, 22% delinquencies and that’s where I think you’re going to see the problems."

To see if Perry had it right, I quizzed the MBA and got this in response from Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics:

"Mr. Perry is correct that we have to differentiate by the type of servicer rather than the type of loan. This may not be a major issue because our latest subprime numbers are 14.4% delinquent by at least one payment, plus another 4.5% in foreclosure, for a total of 18.9% either delinquent or in foreclosure. For just subprime ARMs that number is 21.1%, so we agree with Mr. Perry's estimates of the current state of the market."
 
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