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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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Personal Story by a Lawyer from a Previous Asset Bubble.
Can we Learn from the Past and How will the Housing Decline Impact You?


http://drhousingbubble.blogspot.com...-by-lawyer-from-previous.html?ref=patrick.net
Very rarely do I come across a personal account that encompasses the entire scope of what a bursting bubble can do to an economy and the people living in it. Bubbles, as examined from the past, have a very similar pattern in the stages they progress. Mass euphoria leads to a case of mass resentment and depression both economically and personally for many families. I came across a letter written from a lawyer from Mason City, Iowa in the Corn Belt recounting the impact of the Great Depression on his town. It is a poignant and somewhat eerie story to read considering the date of writing is 1933. The similarities of what happens in the past raises many questions that I hope to discuss at length and how it will influence our future as a nation. These are things that as a society we will face. Foreclosures, larger numbers of families facing economic problems, and the repercussions of another bubble bursting. Since I found this letter in a very old file, I have decided to type up the large part of the letter since it is a necessary read for anyone trying to diagnosis potential issues we will face. Of course, times are different. We are not in the late 1920s or early 1930s, but human nature, bubble psychology, and the essence of being a person are timeless. Below are paragraphs of the entire letter:
 
Market gives "boo-hiss" to IndyMac

IndyMac CEO warns employees of mortgage market panic

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of lender IndyMac Bancorp Inc. suffered a 10%-plus fall early Friday after an e-mail by Chief Executive Mike Perry to employees surfaced that described the mortgage-backed bonds market as "very panicked and illiquid." As a result, he said in the note that the lender will have to make major changes to its underwriting and pricing guidelines. IndyMac Bancorp is the holding company for IndyMac Bank, F.S.B., which bills itself as the seventh largest savings and loan and the second largest independent mortgage lender in the nation.
 
Countrywide share plunged 5.11% today at this time.Indymac plunged 10%.
Countrywide share price right now is $25.4. In mid june, it was $42.
Indymac share price is $18.94. In mid june, it was $33.
Countrywide one year return is -30%
Indymac one year return is -54%
Indymac share price at 11/16/06 was $48.16. Going from $48.18 per share to $18.94 per share is tough and painful.
 
Good read Pam: Brings my memory back to days I was growing up in the 1950's when things were normal. A man working in the cotton mill made $50 per week, had a house, car, and rabbit dogs in his back yard. Lived like a king. I remember my freshman year in college in 1964, the economics professor made $7,200 per year. My Junior and senior year we had a Harvard economics professor and he made $18,500. He had five kids and I remember him telling us he would have a kid in college every year for the following 28 years. Of course he had book royalties and was on Johnson's council of economic advisers which helped foot the bill. My tuition, food, and room was $990 per year. Books were extra. Could run as high as $50 per year with used books.
What would life be like in a normal economic time? Been there and done that. Ain't that bad. The doctor used to visit our home for $4 per visit. Heard someone the other day say their hospital bill for the new born was over $5,000. My dad is 85 and was delivered by a black mid wife named aunt Sally by the light of a kerosene lantern. He still has the lantern in his basement. Cost? $2.00.
 
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At American Home, it's one last day at the office

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070803/americanhomemortgage_closing.html?.v=1
MELVILLE, New York (Reuters) - In some respects it was a normal summer Friday in this Long Island hamlet roughly 50 miles east of Wall Street. The weather was hot, a bit steamy. The weekend approached, and employees of American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (NYSE:AHM - News) awaited their paychecks.

What was different was that the checks would be their last.

One day earlier the mortgage lender said it would fire nearly 7,000 employees, an exclamation mark to one of the biggest and fastest corporate collapses in the U.S. housing downturn. Friday would be the last day.

"This is my first stint in the mortgage field and probably my last," said Nick Vasilakis, 31, as he entered company's headquarters in shorts, a T-shirt and a baseball cap. He said he had worked at American Home for two months
 
Mortgage market suffers from lack of liquidity, confidence

Any bailout of home-loan mess would be limited, experts say

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The crisis in the mortgage market has increased the likelihood that the Federal government could intervene in some way to alleviate a credit squeeze.

A broker at Ace Mortgage Funding LLC, a leading mortgage brokerage firm, estimated on Friday that 90% of these so-called non-conforming home loans have disappeared in the past three days, leaving home buyers with far fewer options. The broker declined to be identified because they didn't want to be seen as exacerbating housing market problems.

The crisis in mortgage availability could prompt action from Congress, several mortgage market experts said.

Mike Perry, chief executive of mortgage lender IndyMac Bancorp said on Thursday that he got a phone call this week from U.S. Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., who asked whether Congress can help the U.S. mortgage industry in any way.

At a hearing in Washington D.C. on Thursday, Dodd said that he'd spoken this week with several mortgage bankers "to solicit their opinions as to what they thought was happening and what solutions may lay out there to try to deal with this seizing up of credit that is really getting rather dramatic."

Indymac's Perry said he'd also talked to the chairman of Fannie Mae on Thursday and had traded calls with the chairman of Freddie Mac.
 
IndyMac Stock Drops 16%+, Call Options Bad Bet

INDYMAC BNCP INC (NYSE:IMB) Last Trade:17.50
Trade Time:3:21PM ET
Change:
down_r.gif
3.55 (16.86%)
Prev Close:21.05
Open:20.50
 
Lenders pull back on Alt-A offerings, raise jumbo-loan rates

Mortgage borrowers in turmoil as lenders cut off riskier loans

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Some nontraditional mortgage loans have vanished from lenders' menus, while others have gotten more expensive during an eventful week for those in the mortgage industry.

"What we're seeing is because of the mess in the subprime market world right now. It is definitely blowing over to the [parts of the] prime market," said Ginny Ferguson, co-owner and broker of Heritage Valley Mortgage in Pleasanton, Calif.

It's the riskiest part of the nonsubprime market that is feeling the squeeze as the secondary mortgage market has curbed its appetite for these loans.

Mortgage offerings changed daily this week as some companies took Alt-A loans off the table and the mass layoffs at American Home Mortgage also reduced options, said Steve Jacobson, a mortgage banker in Madison, Wis., and president of Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp.

In some cases, stricter standards were slapped on stated-income or stated-asset loans, Ferguson said, loans also known as low-doc or no-doc that make up the bulk of the Alt-A market.

Other nonconforming loans, including jumbo loans that are bigger than what can be sold to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, have gotten more expensive, Ferguson said.
 
Lenders Broaden Clampdown on Mortgages

Jittery home-mortgage lenders are cutting off credit or raising interest rates for a growing portion of Americans, extending well beyond the market for subprime loans for people with the weakest credit records.

Lenders say they are being forced to raise interest rates and stop offering certain loans because mortgage-bond investors have lost their appetite for a broad range of mortgages considered risky. That includes those dubbed Alt-A, a category between prime and subprime that often involves borrowers who don't fully document their income or assets, or those buying investment properties.

Wells Fargo & Co. is charging 8% for a prime jumbo 30-year fixed-rate loan that carried a 6 7/8% rate late last week. (Jumbo loans are those too large to be sold to government-sponsored mortgage investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.) A Wells spokesman said rates are lower on loans made directly by the bank than on those through brokers.

The fright among investors is forcing lenders to go back to more-conservative practices that were the norm before the housing boom of the first half of this decade. Many now are focusing on loans to borrowers who are willing to document their income, can make a down payment of at least 5% and have a history of paying bills on time.

Alt-A loans accounted for about 13% of U.S. home loans granted last year, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, and subprime loans about 20%. Industry executives have said subprime lending is likely to shrink by more than 50% this year, and now much of the Alt-A market is vanishing too.

This credit squeeze "will further crimp the effective demand for housing, and will make the late summer home-sales season even worse than the dismal spring season," said Thomas Lawler , a housing economist in Vienna, VA.

Tom Lamalfa , managing director of Wholesale Access, a mortgage-research firm in Columbia, Md., expects that half or more of the market for no- and low-documentation loans will disappear.
 
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