• Welcome to AppraisersForum.com, the premier online  community for the discussion of real estate appraisal. Register a free account to be able to post and unlock additional forums and features.

Housing Bubble Bursting?

Status
Not open for further replies.
What's wrong with this picture?

image014.jpg


[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif]Traders [/FONT][FONT=Arial, Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif]are puzzled over why the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has shown no change in the number of construction jobs from eighteen months ago, even though homebuilding activity has dropped dramatically. Sales of new homes in the US have tumbled 40% to annual rate of 834,000 from their peak, and are down 22.3% compared with June 2006. The sales pace in June and March was the lowest since 1999. Are homebuilders employing idle workers, to help the broad economy?[/FONT]
 
Hege Fund Liquidations Causing Market Turmoil

Liquidation triggers hedge-fund turmoil

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The liquidation of a big hedge fund or investment-bank trading portfolio is wreaking havoc in some parts of the hedge-fund business, according to managers and investors.

Black Mesa Capital, a hedge-fund firm that uses computer models to track down investment ideas, said that at least one large hedge fund or investment bank is liquidating "massive" trading portfolios, according to a letter the Santa Fe, N.M.-based firm sent to investors Wednesday.

The warning is causing disruptions and triggering big losses among other so-called market-neutral hedge funds, Black Mesa said in its letter, a copy of which was obtained Thursday by MarketWatch.

"Clearly, something is amiss in the markets that few in our strategy, if anyone, have experienced before," Black Mesa's managers, Dave DeMers and Jonathan Spring, wrote. DeMers declined to comment Thursday.

The firm's hedge fund, which has about $1.9 billion in long positions and $1.9 billion in short positions, was down roughly 7.5% this month through Aug. 7. Those losses could grow to as much as 10% for August so far, Black Mesa noted.

Black Mesa told investors Wednesday that other market-neutral hedge funds had suffered losses of between 5% and 15% so far in August.

Black Mesa said it started reducing its leverage and selling positions to raise cash on Monday. As of Aug. 8, the firm said it had between 50% and 100% of its portfolio in cash and had brought leverage down to 0.5 to 0 times its assets, according to the letter.

The market disruptions began on July 25, when Black Mesa spotted signs of a major liquidation by another market participant. That continued through the week, handing the firm its biggest losing day ever, when it was down 3% on July 27.

The firm analyzed what caused its losses over that weekend and concluded that the behavior of the markets were similar to mid-September 2006, when giant hedge fund firm Amaranth Advisors liquidated its market-neutral equity portfolio to meet margin calls triggered by energy trading losses, Black Mesa explained.

As August began the selling continued, the firm said in its letter.
"Either the original liquidators had just paused, and/or others had begun to liquidate their market-neutral books on Wednesday, August 1," DeMers and Spring wrote. "By Friday, August 3, there seemed to be no abatement in the liquidations and over the weekend, we confirmed with other market-neutral managers that they were suffering similar losses."

Black Mesa then began to wonder whether others in the market-neutral space, having learned of these liquidations and having lost money themselves, could start cutting leverage in their own portfolios too.
"There was (and is) the possibility that, as great as liquidations had been so far, that it was just the beginning of a spiral of me-too liquidations," DeMers and Spring wrote.

The two managers said they didn't know now long such dislocations could last, noting that it could be two days, two weeks, two months or even two quarters.

Black Mesa said there are now "enormous profit opportunities" but the firm said it remains on the sidelines until signs of liquidations in the market dissipate.
 
Whew..If you buy stocks today you are a very brave soul.More to come to match 1929..

This market is beginning to resemble the stock market in the period just before the tech bubble crash... about the same time of the year too. At that point in time (before the tech market crash) you could make a lot of money in day trading by simply buying one day and selling the next. The only trick was to get on at the right time.

So, if the pattern repeats, it would be buy today and put in a sell order for about 3 PM tomorrow. Then, tomorrow, you would put in a buy order for late afternoon the next day, etc. Of course we all know that that roller coaster wound up jumping the tracks. But, I know a couple of guys who made quite a bit of money before the crash. Even with their losses at the end of it all, they still came out ahead.
 
Trouble, trouble, boil and bubble - can't sell to investors

Countrywide: secondary mortage market conditions 'unprecedented'

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Countrywide Financial Corp., the largest U.S. mortgage lender, said Thursday that "unprecedented" poor conditions in the secondary-mortgage market are causing it to retain a greater proportion of mortgage loans than it sells.


In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Countrywide said that while it plans to retain more loans until investor demand improves, it warned that a prolonged period of poor conditions "could have an adverse impact on our future earnings and financial condition."
 
Just went round and round with a Countrywide underwriter this afternoon. Seems she thinks I need a 4th comp and wants me to explain why the subject property increased in value since it's sale in January of 2005. All of my comps were within 3/4th of a mile, only adjustment was for square footage and less than 4% gross and net.

To be exact she said..."I want to see a comp less than 1/2 mile and the same square footage as the subject that sold in the last 90 days.

I said..."I want a thousand dollars for the appraisal...neither one of us is going to get what we want!"

She said she didn't like my tone of voice and would take it up with the VA. Wells Fargo just closed it's local processing center and laid off 75 people. Maybe Countrywide is next.
 
Just went round and round with a Countrywide underwriter this afternoon. Seems she thinks I need a 4th comp and wants me to explain why the subject property increased in value since it's sale in January of 2005. All of my comps were within 3/4th of a mile, only adjustment was for square footage and less than 4% gross and net.

To be exact she said..."I want to see a comp less than 1/2 mile and the same square footage as the subject that sold in the last 90 days.

I said..."I want a thousand dollars for the appraisal...neither one of us is going to get what we want!"

She said she didn't like my tone of voice and would take it up with the VA. Wells Fargo just closed it's local processing center and laid off 75 people. Maybe Countrywide is next.
There is a "C" change in Countrywide lending policy effective right now.
1-They cannot sell the loans that are making to investors anymore. No investor is willing to buy them so, they have to keep them in house. They want to make sure that the loans are not going to default because it is their money and if it defaults or there was any problem, it will going to be on their face. Two month ago, they didn't think that way. They had some ready and willing investors to buy those loans no matter how bad and shoddy they were.
2- Countrywide creditors, those who used to lend themmoney in the past are not giving them any more credit, so countrywide has to use their own reserve money to lend now and the are very cautious in how to lend them.
 
Bubble, Bubble - More Credit Martket Trouble

U.S. stock market futures pointed to another dark day of trading on Friday, with markets again rattled by credit-market jitters, prompting a fresh injection of cash by overseas central banks. Countrywide Financial dropped 19% in pre-open trade after the mortgage lender said future profits may be hurt by the "unprecedented" credit market disruptions.
  • Central banks in Europe and Asia injected billions more dollars into the banking systems as they again moved to boost liquidity in markets suffering from the subprime credit crisis. The European Central Bank said it had provided 61 billion euros ($84 billion) to banks in a three-day tender offer.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Find a Real Estate Appraiser - Enter Zip Code

Copyright © 2000-, AppraisersForum.com, All Rights Reserved
AppraisersForum.com is proudly hosted by the folks at
AppraiserSites.com
Back
Top