Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Steve Owen]

Merrill Lynch has some interesting data concerning history of real estate market declines.

It is a 40 page report.

Interesting that they lumped commercial real estate into the least vulnerable category.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Interesting that they lumped commercial real estate into the least vulnerable category.

I suppose what is interesting about that is the implication that any price correction with the domestic housing market does not happen to the same degree with the commercial market. The commercial market has a cash flow and income stream secured by long term leases to buffer the down turn while supporting the muni bond debt placed on it.

Commercial office buildings financed by tax-exempt bonds have been rare, however, examples are 7 World Trade Center in lower Manhattan and Battery Park City Authority.

 

[David C. Johnson]

The Housing Bubble Has Popped

Sorry to be AWOL for so long, folks. Pretty busy year so far...

dcj

______________


The HOUSING BUBBLE HAS POPPED

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P149596.asp

"A Vision of Mean Reversion

"Finally, a recent edition of The Liscio Report, the economic newsletter, put into perspective how wacko the current climate is. It said that the ratios of (a) stock value to GDP and (b) real-estate value to GDP are both nearly twice their averages from 1952 to 1970. As the report noted: "If mean reversion still has any role in market valuations, then both markets have plenty of room to fall."

Well, on the up side, Gold is currently at $651.90 per ounce as of the time of this posting which means 51.53% over the last 12 months. A $100,000 investment this time last year would currently be worth over $150,000.

Of course, it could change tomorrow (and will.)

http://www.kitco.com/

dcj

 

[Mike Simpson]

I think it is against forum rules to name names of people that spend an exorbinant amount of their time conducting silly little investigations, and making trouble for people.:icon_smile:

So, that's how the Crusader thread vanished?......Naaaa. I'm probably just being paranoid

Moh-

I was posing one of two possibilities (as I saw it) to the statement: "Some things just aren't worth the money that would be made."

I believe that Greg was referencing the potential risk of investing in real estate in a changing market...then again, the market's always changing. I also think Greg was insinuating there might be some better investment vehicles...then again, some think there's always a better investment than the very product they evaluate.

However, a second possibility exists that some (on 'The Fringe') have expressed in the past; that successful investing is somehow unethical and/or dangerous to the point it shouldn't be raised. These sentiments have been expressed by some repeatedly...typically during a "Housing Bubble" thread, and usually directed @ either myself or Mr. Neff.

"What are those silly little investigations that make trouble for people? You need to be more open and direct and name names. Who is doing those little silly investigations and on whom? or are you getting paranoid?"

Paranoid? Surely ye jest (he said w/a smirk)...I'm not the one awaiting the 'Coming Of The Dreaded Housing Bubble' four years & running.

Regarding naming names; keep posting like you have been and await the private messages & personal phone calls...there's always room for more in the inner sanctum. You'll have to brush up on your writing skills though...you'll be asked to write a reporter every now & again.

Oh yeah...(if you have one) the sense of humor must be left at the door. This is serious business!

-Mike

 

[Bobby Bucks]

DCJ it's good to see you back. A word of caution, if you made any money in gold during your hiatus, it might be best to keep it under your hat. Some in here are looking for a human sacrifice.

 

[moh malekpour]

Moh-

I was posing one of two possibilities (as I saw it) to the statement: "Some things just aren't worth the money that would be made."

I believe that Greg was referencing the potential risk of investing in real estate in a changing market...then again, the market's always changing. I also think Greg was insinuating there might be some better investment vehicles...then again, some think there's always a better investment than the very product they evaluate.

However, a second possibility exists that some (on 'The Fringe') have expressed in the past; that successful investing is somehow unethical and/or dangerous to the point it shouldn't be raised. These sentiments have been expressed by some repeatedly...typically during a "Housing Bubble" thread, and usually directed @ either myself or Mr. Neff.

"What are those silly little investigations that make trouble for people? You need to be more open and direct and name names. Who is doing those little silly investigations and on whom? or are you getting paranoid?"

Paranoid? Surely ye jest (he said w/a smirk)...I'm not the one awaiting the 'Coming Of The Dreaded Housing Bubble' four years & running.

Regarding naming names; keep posting like you have been and await the private messages & personal phone calls...there's always room for more in the inner sanctum. You'll have to brush up on your writing skills though...you'll be asked to write a reporter every now & again.

Oh yeah...(if you have one) the sense of humor must be left at the door. This is serious business!

-Mike

Mike,
You dodged the question. You didn’t identify these individuals who are conducting little silly investigations and making trouble for people? forget about phone call or private message. Please be direct.
By the way, are you familiar with Trinity Consulting Services?

 

[David C. Johnson]

Hi, Bobby.

The "human sacrifice" thing don't sound none too good, but I guess it's something I could live with-- err, um, or something, maybe.

But Galdangit, they better leave my cottenpicken gold alone !!

dcj

 

[Mike Simpson]

Shhhhhhh....they'll hear us

"Mike,
You dodged the question."

Toro Bully...Toro!

Slippery lil critter...ain't I?

"Please be direct."

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh (big breath)...Noooooooo. Besides (they h34r: know who they h34r: are).

Never heard of TCS...do they have the golden needle with which to prick the Housing Bubble?

-Mike

 

[Steve Owen]

I suppose what is interesting about that is the implication that any price correction with the domestic housing market does not happen to the same degree with the commercial market. The commercial market has a cash flow and income stream secured by long term leases to buffer the down turn while supporting the muni bond debt placed on it.

Commercial office buildings financed by tax-exempt bonds have been rare, however, examples are 7 World Trade Center in lower Manhattan and Battery Park City Authority.

Yeah, I was aware of that, particularly the first paragraph. I have used those happy facts to my advantage many times. When one market segment is down others are often up.

However, my surprise was because of the very high vacancy rates I have noticed over the last few quarters... particularly for retail properties. I don't doubt their wisdom, I was just surprised. It might cause me to take another look at several different things, including the spread of the small portion of my portfolio that is still linked to real property assets.

 

[moh malekpour]

Never heard of TCS...do they have the golden needle with which to prick the Housing Bubble?

-Mike


No, they solicit want to be real estate investors nationwide to buy foreclosed and tax delinquent properties,