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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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posted to wrong forum...
 
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Case-Shiller versus NAR

U.S. homes prices down nearly 4% in past year: Case-Shiller

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Home prices in major U.S. cities declined for the 13th straight month in July, Standard & Poor's reported Tuesday. The Case-Shiller home price index for 20 major cities fell 0.4% in July and is now down 3.9% in the past year. The 10-city index fell 0.6% in July and is down 4.5% in the past year, the worst performance since July 1991. Prices fell in 16 of the 20 cities compared with a year earlier. Prices have dropped 9.8% in Detroit. Prices have risen 6.9% in Seattle.
NAR - Senior Economist Lawrence Yun is now left to simply state the obvious or risk looking completely uniformed and off base.

“The unusual disruptions in the mortgage market, including a significant rise in jumbo loan rates, resulted in a fairly high number of postponed or cancelled sales, with many buyers having to search for other financing when loan commitments fell through, … Lower sales contributed to a buildup of unsold inventory.”
NAR data for August is showing that demand for residential real estate is now taking a new leg down uniformly across the nation’s housing markets.
 
Lennar - more bad news to come

Lennar Reports Biggest Loss in Its 53-Year History


The third-quarter net loss was $513.9 million, or $3.25 a share, exceeding the most pessimistic estimates from analysts and suggesting the worst housing market in 16 years shows no signs of stabilizing. Revenue at Miami-based Lennar fell 44 percent to $2.34 billion, the lowest in more than three years.

``Heavy discounting by builders, and now the existing home market as well, has continued to drive pricing downward,'' Miller said in the statement.

 
1,500,000 new foreclosures could be an under estimate

US subprime losses set to mount


Losses in the US subprime mortgage market are set to escalate as falling housing prices prevent borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages from refinancing on better terms, data released on Tuesday suggest.

Late payments and defaults on subprime mortgages are already four times the historical average. They are set to rise as some 2.5m households face rapidly rising mortgage payments in the next 18 months.

Lehman Brothers estimates increased payments will send 1.5m subprime borrowers into foreclosure.

 
Senior Economist Lawrence Yun is now left to simply state the obvious or risk looking completely uniformed and off base.
He is already past the point of rejection. This puppy is off the ground and Larry is set to jump out without his parachute...

You can also add the name of this idiot to the Pollyanna List, who said positive things about Subprime loans on Nightly Bus. Report last night
http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/070924e/
 
He is already past the point of rejection. This puppy is off the ground and Larry is set to jump out without his parachute...

You can also add the name of this idiot to the Pollyanna List, who said positive things about Subprime loans on Nightly Bus. Report last night
http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/070924e/
I like the spin:
Borrowers who start missing payments can call for help. We should, substantially increase Federal budget support for these programs. The sub-prime crisis is another chapter in an American story of financial innovation with new waves of opportunity ...
Just another taxpayer bailout with the front end covered so the back end won't loose a dime.
 
Re; NAR gives up & tells the truth

U.S. homes prices down nearly 4% in past year: Case-Shiller

NAR - Senior Economist Lawrence Yun is now left to simply state the obvious or risk looking completely uniformed and off base.

NAR data for August is showing that demand for residential real estate is now taking a new leg down uniformly across the nation’s housing markets.

===================
It strange but bottom turning points are marked when most give up.

Not a prediction;
but election year,
is almost here.
Not to get too political ,or predictive but closer we get to 2008 elections;
perhaps the better the up-trends.
 
Mortgage rates rise 0.25% on 0.5 % FED funds rate reduction

Fed rate cut has had opposite effect on long-term mortgages

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Greg McBride, senior financial analyst for BankRate.com, says that many would-be home buyers are about to be stripped of a misperception, namely the idea that when the Federal Reserve Board is cutting interest rates mortgage rates will fall as a result.
Home values just dropped again. It is the monthly payment that determines affordability.
 
Las Vegas is the canary in the coal mine

Las Vegas Devaluation Shows U.S. Housing Market May See 6 Percent Decline

Tumbling home prices in the gambling Mecca will show how far and how fast U.S. property values will fall in 2008 as the housing decline enters its third year, said William Wheaton, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, outside of Boston.

``Las Vegas is an important barometer for where the rest of the nation's home prices are going because it's going to show us how quickly the investors head for the doors,'' Wheaton said. ``It will put the floor under the housing correction.''

Futures contracts on the housing market that trade at Chicago-based CME Group Inc., the world's largest exchange by market capitalization, indicate Las Vegas will have the largest decline in the nation. Investors expect a 5.6 percent drop by next May, said Justin Walters, co-founder of Harrison, New York- based money management and research firm Bespoke Investment Group LLC. New York prices may fall 2.6 percent, the least of the 10 U.S. cities on the exchange.
 
Mortgage securites show rising defaults continue in August

August Subprime-Mortgage Defaults Rose as Prepayments Slow, ABX Data Shows

After August payments, 19.1 percent of loan balances in 20 deals from the second half of 2005 were at least 60 days late, in foreclosure, subject to borrower bankruptcy or backed by seized property, up from 17.5 percent a month earlier, according to a report yesterday from Wachovia Corp.

Prepayment speeds for the loans slowed, suggesting it's more difficult for borrowers to sell their homes or refinance, according to another report by New York-based analysts at UBS AG. Record levels of delinquencies and defaults on subprime mortgages are worsening as home prices decline and interest rates on loans adjust higher for the first time. As lenders tighten standards, borrowers are finding it harder to refinance into new mortgages with lower payments.
 
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