Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Randolph Kinney]

Risk of prime ARM over $417,000 - interest rate goes up

Thornburg Mortgage Boosts Loss Estimate From Loan Sales Amid Credit Rout

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Thornburg Mortgage Inc., the Santa Fe, New Mexico-based home-loan provider, lost 27 percent more than it had expected selling off adjustable-rate mortgages since August, after the collapse of the subprime market caused demand for mortgage securities to dry up.

Thornburg sold $22 billion of ``high quality'' adjustable- rate mortgages since Aug. 10, almost 8 percent more than it had planned, the company said in a statement today. Its estimated loss on the assets sales was $1.1 billion, versus a previous prediction of $863 million.

The lender concentrates on so-called jumbo loans, which exceed the $417,000 limit for mortgages that government-chartered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy.

 

[Austin]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/00eb67c0-769c-11dc-ad83-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

Corporate America racked by uncertainty

By Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: October 9 2007 20:07 | Last updated: October 9 2007 20:07

Corporate America is braced for the worst period of economic uncertainty since the start of the decade as the credit squeeze and the housing meltdown heighten the risk of a US slowdown.
US chief executives say the economic outlook has not been so difficult to read since the last recession in 2000-01. They warn that in spite of signs of a pick-up, the threat of an economic contraction is still alive.
Conflicting economic indicators and volatile business conditions make it difficult to take strategic decisions such as whether to hire or fire staff, or increase or slash capital expenditure, business leaders told the Financial Times.
They said they would watch the third-quarter earnings reporting season, which begins this week, to gauge whether companies had managed to cushion the twin blows from the housing crisis and the liquidity squeeze.

 

[airphoto]

They've still not properly accounted for $3.00 gasoline and $3.00 fuel oil in the north .. forgotten due to the more recent turmoil ..

 

[moh malekpour]

Every Reason To Panic Over Portland Condo Glut

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8584.htm

In the hot real estate summer of 2005, the futuristic John Ross tower generated a buzz never seen before in Portland. Within a week, 222 potential buyers plunked down $5,000 or more to reserve their condos in the 31-story tower on the Willamette River. The talk around town was that developers couldn't build new big-city condos fast enough to keep up with downsizing baby boomers and newcomers.

But two years later, the condo boom is over. Today, the John Ross has seen so many canceled purchases that developers actually have fewer buyers -- 192 -- than they did two years ago


"No reason to panic"

Still, real estate insiders remain confident about the long-term future.

They say Portland is immune from the downturn that's infected other big cities. Job growth remains strong, and people continue to move to the area, providing demand for urban living. "It's steady as she goes here," Scanlan said. "There's no reason to panic."

Every Reason To Panic

We are now hearing the same nonsense from people like Bob Scanlan that we heard in Florida.

Florida Two Years Ago

Florida is "immune".
Look at the demographics.
Look at the jobs.
It's impossible to overbuild.
Retirees will move to Florida.
Portland Today
Portland is "immune".
Look at the demographics.
Look at the jobs.
It's impossible to overbuild.
Retirees will move to the inner city.
The only difference in the story is those retirees who were all going to move to Miami had a sudden change in heart. They are now supposedly headed to Portland instead

 

[Randolph Kinney]

The only difference in the story is those retirees who were all going to move to Miami had a sudden change in heart. They are now supposedly headed to Portland instead

No, wait! I saw them heading for Phoenix. No, they changed directions again and are heading to Reno. No, they changed direction again and are heading to .... :Eyecrazy:

 

[sunnycal]

No, wait! I saw them heading for Phoenix. No, they changed directions again and are heading to Reno. No, they changed direction again and are heading to .... :Eyecrazy:

Weren't they camped out in front of the new subdivisions in Las Vegas? I heard they are giving away granite counters, plasma tv's and new cars. The latest is that now the builders are just slashing 50% off the sales price.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Weren't they camped out in front of the new subdivisions in Las Vegas? I heard they are giving away granite counters, plasma tv's and new cars. The latest is that now the builders are just slashing 50% off the sales price.

Seniors do go for that bargain element and the free shrimp cocktail. You can see them line up at those all you can eat buffets.

But for the climate, nothing beats Quartzite, Arizona in January looking at all those RVs as far as the eye can see. Reminds me of lizards sunning themselves on rocks. It's what you do to keep your body temperature up.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

How weak will the Christmas retails sales be?

Archstone Consulting Holiday Forecast- Cold Shoulder from Shoppers, Blizzard of Discounts


The impact of the housing market on disposable income is significant. Homeowners can no longer tap their home equity to generate income that in the past has been used in discretionary spending. The downturn in the housing market continues as the backlog of unsold new homes hits a 16-year high.

“Consumers wanting to buy homes will be required to apply for more traditional forms of financing, and therefore will be forced to save. This will impact spending habits,” stated Michael Unger, Director in Archstone Consulting’s Retail and Consumer Products group. Indeed, savings rates have increased. The effect of tighter credit may be partly offset by higher savings: consumers saved over $52 billion in Q2 2007 – $22 billion more than they saved in Q2 2006 – and so may allocate some of these additional savings to holiday spending.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Newbie7 - here is your wish

Newbie7,

I know that your want prices to decline in the San Diego metro area so that you can buy a house. Hang in there, you may be getting your wish.

Housing market in major cities will decline through 2011

The latest plot of housing market doom and gloom is written with recent housing futures statistics that indicate home prices in many major markets will rerun price plunges from now until beyond the start of the next decade.

That'd be 2011.

This outlook for home prices is based on early returns from housing futures contracts sold on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Available since May, the contracts and trading of housing futures are based on movement in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, a measure of median home price data for major cities in the country.

CME offers futures contracts for 10 of the 20 cities in the S&P/Case-Shiller index and a composite index of the 10 cities over various months from November 2007 to November 2011.

There's your graphic volatility.

From November 2007 to November 2010, the futures outlook for homes prices is an 8 percent drop in the composite number, but real crashing prices in many cities.

The biggest drops for the same period are forecast for Las Vegas, Miami and San Diego which are expected to get clobbered as home prices drop 24 percent in each town; followed by, Denver, down 22 percent; San Francisco, by 20 percent; Washington, D.C. and Los Angeles, both off by 19 percent; New York metro, 13 percent; Boston, 12.4 percent; and Chicago, down only 10 percent during the period.

Statistical doom served up right on cue.

Case-Shiller as of July 26, 2007

 

[Randolph Kinney]

NAR's happy happy forecast for 2007 - revised now for the 10th time

Existing Home Sales May Drop to Five Year Low, Realtors Say

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Existing home sales this year probably will fall to a five-year low, worse than forecast, signaling the U.S. housing market is far from hitting bottom.

New-home sales may decline 24 percent to a 10-year low of 804,000 and existing home sales will fall 11 percent, the National Association of Realtors said in a news release today. It was the 10th time this year the Chicago-based group lowered some part of its monthly housing and economic forecast.

A month ago the Realtors association called for an 8.6 percent decline in sales of previously owned homes, which account for about 85 percent of the housing market.

The decline may ``help to release some pent-up demand in early 2008,'' the report said.

Happy news! Pent up demand to be unshackled! :new_multi: