Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Randolph Kinney]

Steve, you are showing where Mike S. made a prediction back in the beginning of 2005. Lots of LO's to bite the big one along with appraisers. Well Ole Mike appears to be off on that one. Of course, it was just his opinion so take that for what it is or was worth.

Mike, I don't won't anything from you. I don't have time to go through every post that you have ever made on this forum, over 3,500+. Honestly, get a life, I have much better things to read than the extraneous opinions that you have written. Maybe your time is not worth that much if you can spend it here and then complain about "debate people who're consistantly wrong & acerbic to anyone who disagrees with their ridiculously dated predictions".

I do appreciate data and article links that provide information on the economy and the real estate markets. I look forward to reading the post of those who can contribute.

 

[JSmith43]

I especially like government data and charts, like EPA milage ratings for instance Cars tested on rollers that avoid ups and downs and texture generated rolling resistance of real roads. Tests without wind resistance or effects of non level surfaces. I wonder if they are done at standard temperature and atmospheric pressure, with the car engine brought up to ideal operating temperature (for standard temperature and atmospheric conditions)? That would further diminish applicability to the real World, if these numbers are really meant to be relied upon. Anyone want to bet that cars are not engineered to "the test", so to speak, instead of to the real World condtions?

These tests are designed by actual scientists? And, about something from the physical universe that is measurable? Some engineers can intercept a commit but EPA scientists and bureaucrats couldn't, I bet! What hope is there for wannabe economists in search of sometimes intangible behavior factors with charts and graphs? I think track records, proven intuition, and anecdotes are under rated when it comes to the subjective World of predictive market analysis. Even a backwards looking mirror offers shattered and distorted visions.

The probability for error, no, make that significant compounded errors, is almost a certainty. I'm not suggesting that we demonstrate our humility, since a boring forum, that would guarantee! I trust we are all humble inside:icon_smile:

 

[Bobby Bucks]

The probability for error, no, make that significant compounded errors, is almost a certainty. I'n not suggesting that we demonstrate our humility, since a boring forum, that would guarantee! I trust we are all humble inside:icon_smile:

That was worth reading the entire thread.

.

 

[Mike Simpson]

WOW STEVE! How'd you come up with that? I tried looking for it myself, but I'm obviously not as practiced at pulling up older threads. Now that I know it can be done though...I think I'll have some fun. THANKS!

"But... in fairness, I've got to say that the first quarter of my 2006 was the busiest quarter I've ever had; so, at least that one prediction was not right yet as far as it relates to my business and competition."

Maybe not YOUR business, but many...many Loan Officers have lost their jobs & I expect that to continue. And many...many Appraisers have lost THEIR jobs too. Even some of the 'Crusaders' have been attesting to that fact. We've also read the tribulations of some Forumites who've shared that they had to find other employment..."they just couldn't hold on any longer." Even Ole George has lately began warning of impending job loss for Appraisers.

"Steve, you are showing where Mike S. made a prediction back in the beginning of 2005. Lots of LO's to bite the big one along with appraisers. Well Ole Mike appears to be off on that one. Of course, it was just his opinion so take that for what it is or was worth."

It would appear I've a new fan. Can I add you to my buddies list Randolph?

-Mike

 

[Stone]

Mike Simpson said:

I'm not sure what you want from me? I've more than 3,500 posts, and many have contained explanation, data, and reasoning.

That's classic. From now on, when someone disagrees with me, I will just respond with "proof? I've got over 2,700 posts with all sorts of explanation, data and reasoning. That's my proof."

 

[Mike Simpson]

"That's classic. From now on, when someone disagrees with me, I will just respond with "proof? I've got over 2,700 posts with all sorts of explanation, data and reasoning. That's my proof."

Welcome to the fray Michael.

What kinda proof you want? You want me to scan in charts & graphs the way George has? That takes time...and then you've got to consider I'll have to waste even more of my time debating consistent doomsayers whose minds I'll never change. While the gloomy ones may enjoy that...I've better ways to spend my time. I've got jobless recovery charts, unemployment continues to decline graphs, employment growth tables, rate of population growth, consumer confidence series, revolving consumer debt charts, home price escalation graphs, permit activity vs. population growth, information regarding shares of SFR permits by county, resale & new construction sheets (by county, by area), graphs of new construction sales prices, housing demand charts, affordability indexes, first time affordability indexes, information from States Chief Demographers, access to multi-state databases...

...they're in color & shiny...conclusions...NO housing bubble!

I think the best "proof" IS the markets themselves. We've been warned year, after year, after year, after year of an impending bubble by the doomers. We've been offered plenty of proof and analysis by Bubble Heads annually now, and what have we got ...no bubble. We're constantly told we'll just have to wait, and the Y E A R S just keep passing us by.

Don't know what more you guys want. Your bubble is like the Emperors New clothes...it ain't for real...it's so much hype. You want to go on forever trying to convince everybody the sky is falling...for whatever reason...go ahead, but don't be surprised when people start rolling their eyes at you, and sighing under their breath..."there he/she goes with the housing bubble again!" Keep it up, and someday you'll find yourselves on the porch of an old folks home...rockin in your chairs w/a shawl over your lap, blurting out of nowhere...HOUSING BUBBLE!!!

May I suggest you start adjusting your predictions, or drop the debate altogether? Or, maybe ya'll'd like to start trying to convince everyone..."The Bubble's Already Here."

-Mike

 

[JSmith43]

I saw a version of America's Most Wanted Bubble (cable access)

The bubble has been spotted in Florida....no, it's in CA, ....well, it's on the loose

 

[Stone]

Welcome to the fray Michael.

What kinda proof you want?

Oh, I don't want any proof from either side and I'm not really joining. I just happened along and was trying to figure out what was up with you and Randolph.

It was a pretty funny statement, IMO.

 

[George Hatch]

Mike,

You're the one whose been altering your predictions on this thread.

I'll bite - lets see an employment forecast that talks about the kind of employment increases that justify the increases you are now seeing your own area. Do you have one?

 

[Big ole Boy]

Barney Frank and nominal wages

Barney asserts that nominal wage income is falling in this country ..... Barney is a congressman or senator.

Whe are in "Barney" !!! Barney? ...... Barney Rubble ....... TROUBLE .....