Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Lloyd Bonafide]

I heard on Fox Business last night that there are in Miami 25,000 condos vacant and 25,000 more are coming on line this year. The most condo's every sold in a year in Miami is 5,000 making a 10 year supply.

There could be a shortage of lockboxes pretty soon.

 

[Restrain]

Austin:

I saw this in regards to office space in the 80's. Appraiser A looks at how many sales, etc, and does a market analysis for the project. Project goes to lender. Appraiser B looks at another project, Appraiser C...and so on. The result is you have a bunch of projects approved without an analysis of how the proposed projects will affect each other. This is the result of an overheated demand, with no real market, and having to look back in time as opposed to having the real-time data.

Look for a bunch of these to become apartments with significantly lower rental rates. Already seen some condo-to-apartment conversions in Dallas.

 

[moh malekpour]

Home sales, prices show record weakness

Biggest year-over-year drop in home prices on record can't revive home market as sales pace falls to record low.

Sales of existing homes fell to a record low in October, according to the latest reading on the battered housing market by an industry trade group released Wednesday, as even the largest drop in home prices ever wasn't enough to revive moribund sales.

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of homes by homeowners fell to an annual pace of 4.97 million in October, down from the revised 5.03 reading in September, which was the previous record low since the trade group started tracking sales on that basis in 1999.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast that sales would slow to an annual rate of 5 million in October.

The median price of a home sold during the month rose fell 5.1 percent to $207,800 from $218,900 a year earlier. It marked the largest year-over-year drop in prices on record and 15th month in the last 17 in which that key price measure posted a year-over-year decline. Before the current slump in housing prices began, it had been 11 years since prices fell compared to a year earlier.

The prices have been hit by a near record number of homes on the the market in the current report. Realtors estimated there are now 4.5 million homes available for sale on the market, which represents a nearly 11-month supply. That is up from the 10.5 month supply in September.

The weak housing market has hit home builders particularly hard

 

[Lloyd Bonafide]

Look for a bunch of these to become apartments with significantly lower rental rates. Already seen some condo-to-apartment conversions in Dallas.

The condo market in Downtown San Diego is so soft right now, (18 months of MLS inventory - plus new projects coming), that a new luxury building that was planned by KB Homes is not only going to be apartments, it's going to be a low-income project.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070924/news_1m24switch.html

 

[Mike Garrett RAA]

Markets go up...markets come down, this too shall pass.

 

[Greg Bell]

Yes Markets go up and down , like the years from 1929 to WW 2.First nationwide decline since 1930.No problem the stock market is in full suckers rally with a dash of dead cat bounce.If this keeps up the cat will bounce to the thirteenth floor on the second and third bounce ...Quick , buy Beans and Ammo..

 

[Riick]

Swaps, Swap-Meets, and general JUNK

The Next Dominos: Junk Bond And Counterparty Risk

http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_va_print.aspx?EditionID=619
.
WOW -- 4,856 replies on this thread - Unbelievable

 

[Alison Swain]

I co-sponsored an "investors appreciation" reception with a RE office about 18 months back. They had flown in a senior economist from Wachovia to give a little talk. I sidelined him afterward and then he spilled his guts. Basically everything he predicted has come true so far. He contended this will go through 2009 or even 2010 with people in condo conversions losing up to 75% of value. :Eyecrazy:

His take was that the smart money was in and back out by October, 2005.

Saw this same dude on CNBC yesterday morning.

 

[Jozsef Poor]

There could be a shortage of lockboxes pretty soon.

Miami has a good supply of buyers from South America and Europe. People are afraid to buy now because of the constant media "end of the world in real estate" news. Some condo developments are turned to office buildings and others dropping prices. There are a few of those 25,000 that the developers are ready to bail out before they even started to build anything.

 

[Riick]

I co-sponsored an "investors appreciation" reception with a RE office about 18 months back. They had flown in a senior economist from Wachovia to give a little talk. I sidelined him afterward and then he spilled his guts. Basically everything he predicted has come true so far. He contended this will go through 2009 or even 2010 with people in condo conversions losing up to 75% of value. :Eyecrazy: ,,,,,.

Remember his name? ... FL snowbird condo in yr or 2....:icon_idea:
Miami has apparently taken biggest hit, what about further N. - Lauderdale, Boca, West Palm ???
Projecting low in '08 ....or '09?