Housing Bubble Bursting?

[Riick]

Yah ....as Maudlin and others have pointed out

The is NEVER just one Cockroach !

 

[Austin]

Gee! I wonder why Bush is in the Middle East?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/earns_citigroup.html?.v=5

[FONT=ARIAL,VERDANA,HELVETICA][SIZE=+7]THE $18B WRITE OFF
[/SIZE] [SIZE=+3] AND NEW RESCUE BY SINGAPORE, KUWAIT, SAUDI ARABIA[/SIZE][/FONT]

 

[Dee Dee]

Give it another year or so, and they'll own our asse(t)s.

 

[john snyder]

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra.

or here is another thought from "The Black Swan"

Paraphrased - Suppose you have a coin flip that come up heads 99 times in a row - what is the next flip going to be? A stats guy would say the next flip does not depend on the previous flip so its 50/50 - Tony from the Brooklyn streets says it ain't 50/50 its 100% the coin will turn up heads cause the penny is obviously weighted. Right now I will take Tony's opinion over a stat man.The economy/housing market has way to many stat guys and too little street sense opinions.

Come to think of it, maybe the mtg. crisis was caused by stats guys trying to be Tony i.e. no doc loans.

jbs

 

[Restrain]

I agree that it's worse than the earlier stock meltdowns. Then, it was simply paper. In many instances the assets were imaginary, based on speculation.

This time around, you have financial instruments which are based on fixed, tangible assets. The collapse of the financial instruments are based on the collapse in value of the tangible assets. Further, the collapse of the tangible assets, beyond just a loss in value, have a reoccuring negative effect as they do not just disappear, they end up as a negative against the capital structures.

For those of you who do not remember the late 80's and the Texas oil patch meltdown, we had just that. We had asset value collapse, coupled with investment vehicle losses, which decapitalized banks. The banks went belly-up big-time. People lost everything. The see-through building was common and untold numbers of small business people lost their small stores, small businesses, small retail shops, because they couldn't get their normal operating capital.

Now, we're seeing this nationwide. I'm really concerned about just how deep this can go. At least in the 80's, inflation, taxes and fuel costs were not an issue. Now, they're big issues.

 

[Greg Bell]

:new_snipersmilie: This is really ugly.The Pollyanna's in the government and Maria (Talk stocks to me baby ,yeah) on CNBC will always tell you it's time to buy because the stocks are beaten down and and a real bargain.Trouble is if you by a $20 stock at $10 and later it dives to $5 , wheres' the beef??I don't know if stocks were good deal in January 1930 but I would bet the experts were touting a great time to buy because the stocks were beaten down.This looks like a 1929 in a slow motion replay due to government regulations retarding the correction required to get back to basics , which is impossible due to the incredible debt load this country in under.Sooo...Quick buy some beans and ammo..:new_2gunsfiring_v1:

 

[Austin]

Quick saga to illustrate how much worse things will get. I live on our family 120-acre farm about 4 miles out of town. I live in the middle of the farm and my 86-year-old-dad, retired real estate man, lives on the edge of the farm. The farm next door was sold three years ago to a developer who put in public water and sold lots along the public road. They have constructed about 10 houses all almost identical from our property west.
They put a new dwelling on the lot adjoining our farm last spring. It immediately sold to an African-American preacher. He works in a factory and preaches on Sunday. For some reason all of these houses that sold were to African-Americans. We couldn’t figure out where all of these people were coming from because the population is declining and they were selling houses like there is no tomorrow. The minister visited my elderly parents and because good friends. I went by dad’s house yesterday for a visit and he told me his preacher buddy from next door came for a visit last night. I ask what was up. He said the preacher wanted to borrow $2,500 because he was two months behind in his $1,100 monthly payment and needed the money by February when he got his tax refund check. Dad said he explained his background in real estate and ask this question: “If your payment is $1,100 per month then your gross income must be around $4,400 per month?” The preacher said not even close. Dad said that is your problem, you can’t afford the house and may as well let it go and move on. The preacher stated that he had talked with all of his neighbors and they were all in the same situation. The last house they finished about 4 months ago has been sitting empty and the other 9 or so are about to go belly up. Rev Jesse Jackson was on Fox News with Cavuto last week and this is the situation he is trying to get the government to bail people out of. This man has not been in the house but 7 months and is two payments behind. He paid $141,000 for the house. His payment is $1,100 per month. I put this in the hp12 at a 30 year loan, 6% interest and the PV is $183,500. He has a new $40,000 truck. Go figure!
Now this is all happening within ½ mile of my home so you can imagine what it is like county, state or nationwide. You ain’t seen anything yet.

 

[JSmith43]

How's the weather down there? Camper shell on that truck??

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

For those of you who do not remember the late 80's and the Texas oil patch meltdown,

All too well. Driving thru Dallas and wondering who that North Carolina Bank outfit was....Saw Bank One become Bank None. I toughed it out anyway until Kuwait and when oil prices spiked then collapsed I knew the following year I'd be out of work...so here i are. The [oil] patch is back with a vengence now.

Camper shell

it's a choice. Maybe the $1100 will go to buying one instead of the house payment?

 

[Workbox]

Austin, everybody else is in trouble but them. That is the mentality, but there is a quiver in the air. It just not the preacher man an his congregation in trouble, but also the middle class.

Terrel, what you speak of is so classic. It almost feels like a set up.