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Housing Bubble Bursting?

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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Investors We Need Not Fear[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] By George Will [/FONT]

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[FONT=Helvetica, Arial]http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Although Americans are alarmed by the credit crisis convulsing the economy, they are sensibly placid about one consequence of the crisis. It is the substantial investment by sovereign wealth funds — government-owned and -run investment funds — in financial institutions needing infusions of cash. [/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Investors We Need Not Fear[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] By George Will [/FONT]

will.jpg






[FONT=Helvetica, Arial]http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Although Americans are alarmed by the credit crisis convulsing the economy, they are sensibly placid about one consequence of the crisis. It is the substantial investment by sovereign wealth funds — government-owned and -run investment funds — in financial institutions needing infusions of cash. [/FONT]
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It is the new paradigm of capitalization. Just like the new paradigm was for the private secondary market (foreigners) to provide the lendable funds by purchasing mortgages, MBS, CDO, etc. Banks use to lend depositor money; that changed to the selling of loans to the secondary market. Now our companies are raising capital through direct foreign investment instead of domestic investors. It has to be that way. Domestic sources for investment are tapped out and they don't want to take on more risk than they already have.

Lets face it, if you had money to invest, are you going to buy a private equity stake into Merrill Lynch with out guarantees or protection? They have demonstrated that they did not do well managing risk or return of capital invested much less return on capital invested.

It will take the government to step in and make guarantees for domestic capital to step up to the plate.
 
Well, the link did not work. It said the planned drawback of HELOCS alone will take about $50B out of the hands of consumers, or about a third of the $150B stimulus package.


I don't know how we're going to stay ahead of this.
 
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Oh...... For the innocence of Yesteryear (as in 03-27-2006)

……..What we have had is similar to a bull market on Wall St. And just like the stock market, we will have pockets that go down just like an individual stock can go down. Sometimes even entire sectors go down just like an entire state could go down.
We are seeing the correction right now. Many markets are declining. Many others already declined and are starting to go back up. Many others will stay stable or continue upward but at more normal rates of increase.
So, for those of you who just cannot refuse to use the word bubble, why don't you define what a bubble is? THEN, we can debate the definition and see if we had one, if we still have one, if it is bursting, already burst, etc.

OK, I'll go first: My article used these words:

"A housing bubble is an economic circumstance in which prices begin to escalate so rapidly that the underlying economic forces that drive prices are overwhelmed to the extent that they no longer become the basis for buying and selling decisions. (or, more simply put, "irrational exuberance")." ……..
 
David Weidner's Writing on the Wall: A DIY guide to fixing the housing crisis

Plans to fix the mortgage crisis are like belly buttons. Everybody’s got one, and they’re all pretty much useless.


'We are not in a position where we can say we have definitive answers.'
— Michael Barr, Center for American Progress

'How much economic activity in this country is stimulated by dropping a bomb in some other country?'
— Richard Bove, Punk Ziegel & Co.
 
It said the planned drawback of HELOCS alone will take about $50B out of the hands of consumers, or about a third of the $150B stimulus package.


I don't know how we're going to stay ahead of this.

Interestingly it may not be in the best interest of everyone to refinance, ie., losing a HELOC or having to use cash upfront to 'pay down' an existing mortgage to the max allowed. I'm sure there are all kinds of confusing sales pitches and promises being made as demand dries up, make sure you get it in writing if you didn't know better the first time around.
 
Is your money safe?

Consumer Banking: How risky are uninsured bank deposits?

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is gearing up for the prospect of a large bank failure. So double-check that all your deposits, including interest, are well within FDIC insurance limits.

The agency seeks comment by April 14 on a proposed rule designed to help it make a quick insurance determination amid an increasingly complex quagmire of FDIC rules and tough-to-figure-out bank accounts.

One section would place a provisional hold on a fraction - say, 10% or so -- of certain account balances at some 159 of the nation's largest banks. The hold could affect some accounts with balances under $100,000.

If you have uninsured deposits at a bank, should you worry? Possibly. Depositors without FDIC coverage lost money in at least two recent failures -- NetBank, Alpharetta, Ga., and Miami Valley Bank, Lakeview, Ohio.

Of $109 million in uninsured deposits at NetBank, nearly 30% has not yet been reimbursed. Of $14 million in uninsured funds at Miami Valley, only 5.9% of uninsured funds, so far, has been reimbursed. All deposits in the most recent failure -- Douglass National Bank, Kansas City, Mo. -- have been reimbursed.

But the tide on FDIC reimbursement of uninsured depositors may have changed in 1991 for the worse. Congress sharply curtailed the FDIC's discretion to extend protection beyond insured deposits. Now the FDIC must enter into the "least costly" transaction when dealing with a troubled bank. So the FDIC won't reimburse uninsured depositors if it means increasing the loss to the deposit insurance fund.

FDIC data indicate that as of Sept. 30, there were 65 institutions with assets of $18.5 billion on its list of "problem" institutions. Barr would not elaborate on their sizes. Nor will the FDIC name the institutions.

So what should you do if you deposit large amounts at a bank?
  • Know which deposits are FDIC-insured and which aren't.
  • Know the financial strength of your bank.
  • Take special care with "sweep" accounts, which move money periodically from one account to another. Determine how FDIC insurance would work with your type of account. The FDIC notes that if funds are swept into a deposit in a foreign branch of the bank, normally those funds are not insured by the FDIC or treated as "deposits" under U.S. law. "A depositor should understand the nature of the sweep transaction, how funds are being changed during the course of the business day and the implications of these changes," Barr says. "Sweep account transactions can have a big impact on a customer's status in the event of failure."
 
FDIC data indicate that as of Sept. 30, there were 65 institutions with assets of $18.5 billion on its list of "problem" institutions. Barr would not elaborate on their sizes. Nor will the FDIC name the institutions.

Rut-roh. Good thing the savings rate is bordering on a negative number.
 
Market dives as latest data shows economy is weakening

Stocks falling like confetti

Services-sector gauge takes a historic dive in January, showing an unpredicted decline in executives' mood. Blue chips pace the retreat.
 
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