Housing Market on Verge of Stabilizing?

[Elliott]

Ummm, but they didn't address the 11 month inventory of
new homes or the virtual credit crisis that so far has
received some bandaids, but hasn't been solved.

Premature optimism.

 

[Stephen J. Vertin MAI]

Terrel:

Did not mean to set you off the new guy I was talking about was Ben Bernanke, Fed Chairman. I think he has made some smart moves.

 

[Dee Dee]

Terrel:

Did not mean to set you off the new guy I was talking about was Ben Bernanke, Fed Chairman. I think he has made some smart moves.

For a guy who inherited one of the biggest piles of ka-ka in modern history, he's not doing too bad of a job trying to cover it up.
Same goes for Yun.

 

[Charles Knutson]

Stephen --

I think BB is doing okay, but the current crisis is not about liquidity -- the global credit system is frozen up, because confidence has been destroyed by the sub prime crap Wall Street sold as AAA bonds.

If your local real estate market did not participate in the huge bubble value inflation of the past few years (California and Florida) there is a chance your local real estate market has seen the worst -- but we won't know until late winter or spring at the earliest. It will take that long before we know whether the financial crisis will cause a recession, or whether the American consumer keeps the economy afloat with plastic debt -- as opposed to home equity debt.

I've been reading financial blogs, and the news is not good -- but we won't know how it plays out until it does. The financial fundamentals are the worst they've been since 1929 -- but even that doesn't mean we'll have a recession.

Still, at this point in time, betting against a recession is not wise -- we could be in for a deep and prolonged downturn. Only time will tell.

financial blogs --

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/

 

[cwhalstead]

Real estate prices stabilizing in Fresno CA.

Yeah, I would have to agree... I sold my house Nov '06 for $250K. It was listed a week ago for $180K. So at that rate another year or two it should be about $100K. That is where it was 6 years ago and will price will be fully stabilized.

All due respect anyone thinking the market will stablize anytime soon is unstable. :Eyecrazy:

 

[The Matrix]

This guy may have worked as a real appraiser "skippy" shortly before taking on his new job as a economic forecaster. It's just his opinion...and the one NAR wants to hear....what's wrong with him expressing his opinion?

 

[Richard Carlsen]

I agree that 2008 should be a better year than 2007. I don't think that values (in my part of the country at least) based on the current over-supply of housing, IF sales increase, it will be at least another 18 to 24 months before values stabilize because it will take that long for the market to get in balance.

Having been in the real estate business since 1975, I've seen a number of major ups and downs. And typically, the downs take 1 to 2 years for the market to return to balance. In a low density, lower demand rural market, it can take longer.

 

[Lawrence R.]

Yeah, I would have to agree... I sold my house Nov '06 for $250K. It was listed a week ago for $180K. So at that rate another year or two it should be about $100K. That is where it was 6 years ago and will price will be fully stabilized.

All due respect anyone thinking the market will stablize anytime soon is unstable. :Eyecrazy:

Well, the idea that values will have to go back to what they were 6 yrs ago to stabilize is too much to swallow. Houses generally appreciate in value, even when there is no boom. Granted, it would be(nationally) more like 3-5% annually, your 100K house 6 yrs ago would have gone up in value over 6 years in a "stable" market. So, no---we won't have to return to some arbitrary number before the market stabilizes. Not to sound like a smarty, but the market will stabilize when prices stop falling--and it won't have to go so far back as to 6 yr ago prices.

IMCO, prices will fall(nationally) about 15-18% across the board, the majority of the REO's will sell off, and homes will stay "stable" much longer than they fell, as supply sorts itself out.

I would say a 200K house will drop to no lower than 160, and it will take fewer than 2 yrs to do it.

Write it down and bet your farm on it.

I have spoken.

 

[cwhalstead]

I was joking when I said my old house would be at $100,000 in a few years... however; I do think this downturn will be far greater and longer than anyone foresaw. Old rules regarding real estate cycles no longer apply. They are obsolete.

The world no longer revolves around us. We are a debtor nation, currency is being usurped by Euro, Yen,etc, largest U.S. financial institutions in financial crisis, our federal bank has to choose between inflation or recession, this is no longer your daddy's real estate market. Don't want to rain on anyone's parade but the are some dark clouds on the economic horizon. I know you guys are suffering, so am I. This sucks!

 

[Mr Rex]

California, Nevada, Florida and a few others is not the "entire market". What goes up must come back down to a reasonable level. The "hot" markets overheated and blew, time to pull in the pits, and get lapped for a while until the engine is rebuilt, likely with a longer term engine, rather than a dragster in a Nascar event.