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Housing Shortage???

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Rick Hess

Thread Starter
Sophomore Member
Joined
Feb 6, 2002
NYTimes.com Article: Bay Area Real Estate Prices Too Hot for Some to Touch . I found this pretty interesting. Just wondered if the Bay Area appraisers see it the same way??
 

Frederick R. Ruffell

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 21, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
California
Rick,
I used to live and appraise in San Francisco. I had moved to San Diego in order to afford to buy a house. I have heard recently that there is a shortage of appraisers in S.F. because none can afford to live there. I am sure this goes for many other vocations. I see the same elements coming together in San Diego now (i.e hot new industry, Bio tech, locating here . In S.F. it was Dot.Com industry) We could not now afford the house we bought here 2 1/2 years ago. San Diego grew by about 55,000 residents in 2000 with only about 20,000 housing units being built, and this trend continues although the actual figures have yet to be published.
 

Blue1

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 14, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
Rick,

Here's an example: My grandfathers "estate" which included a 1,000 sq.ft. home in the Excelsior distirict. Built in 1909. (Walk-up with garage underneath and built 3 feet away from the next "walk up" sold for.........ready?????......$400,000. AND it had a tenant!!!! (this is important because they have rent control and tenants have more rights than owners) Would have sold for more $$$$$$ if "tenant-less" Only in San Francisco. :twisted: (I moved away from there 12 years ago) FARTHER North!!!!
 

Bryan (OK)

Sophomore Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2002
Sounds to me like a rate increase for appraisals is due in San Fran. Those are some incredible stories. An appraiser living locally should be able to justify the increase, else one heck of a trip fee from the burbs.

Blue, how long does the rent control on the $400K last. What is the rent on a property like that. There must be some sense to the valuation . . . . oh, never mind . . . . San Fran!!

My relative has become wealthy off of 3 properties he has owned for thirty years in Huntington Beach, one block from the beach.

Blows my mind . . . small explosion, nobody hurt :!: :!:

Bryan
 

Farm Gal

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 14, 2002
Professional Status
Licensed Appraiser
State
Nebraska
They aren't building any more beach front property folks... Belize anyone besides me???
 

cgjerdetu

Junior Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
New York Times article is pretty accurate. Article focused on issues central to Sillicon Valley but they are similar where I am. I live about 40 miles east of San Francisco and about 60 miles north of San Jose. Low inventory does seem to be the main force driving prices higher.

One interesting side note this time (as opposed to two years ago) is that while sales are brisk and prices are increasing, the residential rental market has softened in my area It may be that people most affected by job layoffs were renting or there may be a finite number of people who can afford sky-high rents.

It's not dull working here!

Carolyn
 

Lee in L.A.

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 24, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
Low inventory does seem to be the main force driving prices higher.
Seems that way here too. But there is definitely a limit to the number of people than can pay sky high prices. Where is that limit? Dunno, but people keep moving here, so...

Actually I think we've passed the limit, at least for folks of limited means. Could that be why I see so many illegal garage conversions, and unpermitted additions or units, in certain areas?

On the other hand, new construction of high $$$ customs goes on in other areas. Middle ground (i.e. affordable but not shabby), inventory shrunken. Sounds like a shortage to me.
 

Blue1

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 14, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
Bryan,

Rent control will last forever if you're purchasing for income purposes. In other words, you can't get the tenant out with a crowbar!!!! If you're buying to occupy, then you can kick the tenant out but must give 6 months notice (I think). Get this, the Realtor listed it for $375K and got 20 offers on the first day it listed!!! He knew if he listed it low there'd be a "bidding war." Like you said "San Fran!" Great place to visit but.....you know the rest.......
 
Joined
Jan 13, 2002
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
Florida
Please don't send any more of those Californians here! They arrive to look for a house and go nuts on the first one they see. "Knowledgable" about this market doesn't enter their little spinning heads. They think they've just found the dumbest seller around and will pay extra to put their offer in right now! It's worse when they get a hold of an unethical Realtor that takes them to the first over-priced listing they can find. A few days later some appraiser is being threatened or bribed. The one I like best is:

"Just think about the great new comp you'll have to bring everything else in the market up!" Local big-name Realtor comment.

Bubble? Artificial Inflation? What do you call this?????
 

jtrotta

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
"Monopoly Dollars" - thats what it's called, playing the real estate game with funny money;

just remember, there will always be a price to pay if everyone allows growth beyond reality 8O


8)
 
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