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How do you measure decline?

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To me, it is more useful to graph not only sale prices and dates but number of sales per month. This produces (for me) a more reliable trend line.

I've been trying to conceptualize a hybrid graph that would track sales prices, activity, and inventory to give a one shot picture of the market. Its there in the back of my head but I haven't been able to coax it out yet.
 
Exaltation delayed

Truett, as kindly and gently as I can say this, Anthony Young is NOT an MAI. He only just joined the AI as an Associate this summer, after much prodding over a two year period, and has yet to take one course. 10 Courses, 5-years of Peer Reviewed Reports and a Thesis are required, along with a Degree.

September of last year, he took his first Stats class in Palm Springs. He is self taught with regard to Excel and has had great success promoting his DVD and Webinar's. Until the Stats course, with George Dell, MAI, SRA, last year he had never heard of Gnumeric.

He deserves to be commended for the masterful way he has been able to develop and promote his seminar and DVD. Which is mutually exclusive from having any credentials.

Those who do hold profesional designations, worked hard for them. Both George Dell and I have tirelessly promoted advanced education and done all we can to try and point the way for the residential appraisal community to increase their skillsets. I have created two new seminars this year to help the residential appraiser in this regard.

Documenting Time Adjustments and supporting Market Data Adjustments is probably done by less than 1% of the appraisers.

Although all licensed appraisers certify compliance with good appraisal procedures in their USPAP Certs. Most have their forms programs on Automatic, using what ever they were told to use when they started. And they use the same Adjustment factors in ever Location, Price Range, Size Range and Quality Range.

If one were to simply think about that for a minute, it is intuitively wrong, just wrong.

In my office we do Market Segmentation for what ever product we are appraising in the Location we are in. We have found differening Time Adjustments within the same Zip Code, as there are different Neighborhoods, and Market Segments within.

Then we compare and contrast what we measure, with what is published by Zip Code, City, County. By doing so it is our goal to bring context to the Time Adjustment we are using and bring strength to our analysis of why and what we are using.

So far, we have never been questioned about our Time Adjustment. We have used up to -10% Per Month, for June, 2008.

We are now measuring Weekly Time Adjustments.


Steve- I'm sorry I wrongly elevated Mr. Young, I admit I did not check the MAI roster.
I participated in his webinar re: Using EXCEL to graph trends, but I was inrerrupted several times during all sessions, so I have purchased his DVD to further my knowlege. He spent a lot of time on his learning curve and a lot of time putting the webinar together and presenting it to anyone who would tune in.

I am suspicious of graphs that use a sales population of 3 sales in the past 60 days, 6 in past year, and 6 listings! The report in question was segmented to what the subject is, i.e. an 1800SF house not remodelled, built in 1962 on 1 acre. The ZIP code includes $3Mil homes on a golf course, homes on a lake, manufactured homes, etc., hence not useable for the subject, and might mislead the user. Same with the county - 800 sf condos manufactured homes, mansions - not good indicators. I only wish we had homogenous housing here.
TN
 
Steve- I'm sorry I wrongly elevated Mr. Young, I admit I did not check the MAI roster.
I participated in his webinar re: Using EXCEL to graph trends, but I was inrerrupted several times during all sessions, so I have purchased his DVD to further my knowlege. He spent a lot of time on his learning curve and a lot of time putting the webinar together and presenting it to anyone who would tune in.

I am suspicious of graphs that use a sales population of 3 sales in the past 60 days, 6 in past year, and 6 listings! The report in question was segmented to what the subject is, i.e. an 1800SF house not remodelled, built in 1962 on 1 acre. The ZIP code includes $3Mil homes on a golf course, homes on a lake, manufactured homes, etc., hence not useable for the subject, and might mislead the user. Same with the county - 800 sf condos manufactured homes, mansions - not good indicators. I only wish we had homogenous housing here.
TN


Truent,
I am glad to hear that you enjoyed the DVD course and webinar thus far. Someone told me my ears were burning over here on the appraisers forum so I thought I would join to see how things are going over here.

Oh, the day I receive my MAI……..

Steve is correct, I am not in pursuit of my MAI as of yet. I still am working on finishing my SRA. I had already taken 60 hours worth of Appraisal Institute classes (w/exams) before I even joined, and will log 75 more hours before December as I am already signed up for 3 major classes. Oh and as Steve stated, I am only a “year-old” when it comes to Statistics. George Dell , MAI introduced me back in September to regression and sorts, then I listen to a full semester of Statistics from UC Berkley podcast (2x), a semester lecture on Business Statistics by George T. Geis, read both of George Dells books, along with the Statistics for dummies series. I have been a little busy behind the scenes, as this is a topic that really peaks my interest.

Are you in the California area? If so, you should email George Dell to get his course schedule he is the GURU when it comes to advanced applications with Stats. (He studied it for 15 years!)

If you have any questions or need anything, don’t hesitate to email me at graphthetrend@yahoo.com

FYI, we are doing the last installment of the Graphing series tomorrow free on alamode, inc. Its free to anyone (alamode user or not) http://www.alamode.com/alashopping/shopevent/Schedules.aspx?eid=544



Anthony Young, SCREA
State Certified Real Estate Appraiser


www.TheGraphGuy.com

Affiliate Member, Real Estate Appraisers Association (REAA)
Associate Member, Appraisal Institute (AI)
 
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