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Below is a market in one of the Dallas suburbs, and (I think) provides a good example of what happens when there is little to no inventory. The first graph is original price to sales price. The second graph is average sales volume. What I take from this is that there is a correlation between supply and price paid over list. Is that irrational behavior, or is that the market being the market? IOW, why would folks continue to buy homes if they (rationally) know they're paying too much?

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Below is a market in one of the Dallas suburbs, and (I think) provides a good example of what happens when there is little to no inventory. The first graph is original price to sales price. The second graph is average sales volume. What I take from this is that there is a correlation between supply and price paid over list. Is that irrational behavior, or is that the market being the market? IOW, why would folks continue to buy homes if they (rationally) know they're paying too much?

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A market is not always rational. Which is fine, we deal with the market as it is. However, each individual MV purpose appraisal assignment means we analyze a sale or pending price for the condition and terms in the MV definition. They dont' always match an individual buyer or seller's motivations. If selling over list price is typical, no problem. Question still remains, is this price for subject MV or not? Buyers are under no obligation to purchase at MV. Appraisers are under an obligation to appraise for MV. )

RE agents realize that an appraisal market value opinion can differ from a price - thus RE agents put in clause in some contracts if appraisal value is below SC price, buyer agrees to pay up to $ 20,000 (for example ) over appraisal value up to teh price , or buyer agrees to pay the price regardless of appraisal.

Buyers in a tight inventory market do not always make rational decisions, nor sellers in a over supply market . Fine, do their thing ,and price trends go up or down accordingly.

As for buyers knowingly paying above MV, some sign clauses they are willing to do just that. They have enough cash to put in that they don't' care. Maybe they just sold their old house for a high price. RE feeds on itself. Other buyers are not as well informed as they think, the RE agents shows them superior comps and convinces them the subject is worth X crazy price . Other buyers are caught in a squeeze of high rentals and their purchase decision centers around mortgage payment rather than price.
 
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A market is not always rational. Which is fine, we deal with the market as it is. However, each individual MV purpose appraisal assignment means we analyze a sale or pending price for the condition and terms in the MV definition. They dont' always match an individual buyer or seller's motivations. If selling over list price is typical, no problem. Question still remains, is this price for subject MV or not? Buyers are under no obligation to purchase at MV. Appraisers are under an obligation to appraise for MV. )

RE agents realize that an appraisal market value opinion can differ from a price - thus RE agents put in clause in some contracts if appraisal value is below SC price, buyer agrees to pay up to $ 20,000 (for example ) over appraisal value up to teh price , or buyer agrees to pay the price regardless of appraisal.

Buyers in a tight inventory market do not always make rational decisions, nor sellers in a over supply market . Fine, do their thing ,and price trends go up or down accordingly.

As for buyers knowingly paying above MV, some sign clauses they are willing to do just that. They have enough cash to put in that they don't' care. Maybe they just sold their old house for a high price. RE feeds on itself. Other buyers are not as well informed as they think, the RE agents shows them superior comps and convinces them the subject is worth X crazy price . Other buyers are caught in a squeeze of high rentals and their purchase decision centers around mortgage payment rather than price.
You've used a lot of words, but I'm not sure you made any cogent points... :unsure:
 
You've used a lot of words, but I'm not sure you made any cogent points... :unsure:
Then maybe you have a reading problem ? Are u still trying to figure out estimate or opinion lol....
 
Then maybe you have a reading problem ? Are u still trying to figure out estimate or opinion lol....
Question: Which is more egregious - an opinion of value that is too high or an opinion of value that is too low?
 
They both are equally egregious
It's curious, isn't it, that most would agree this is the correct answer, yet I talk to appraisers every day who are adamantly opposed to date of sale adjustments - regardless of what their data may be telling them. Those adjustments are no different than any other adjustment - you adjust for market reaction. Well - I say that, but technically they are a bit different - insofar as they're not relative to the subject, but relative to the market.
 
Below is a market in one of the Dallas suburbs, and (I think) provides a good example of what happens when there is little to no inventory. The first graph is original price to sales price. The second graph is average sales volume. What I take from this is that there is a correlation between supply and price paid over list. Is that irrational behavior, or is that the market being the market? IOW, why would folks continue to buy homes if they (rationally) know they're paying too much?

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Listings have ALWAYS been less in Dec, Jan, Feb and typically are at their peak from April-August for as long as I can remember.
 
Listings have ALWAYS been less in Dec, Jan, Feb and typically are at their peak from April-August for as long as I can remember.
Generally speaking, yes - especially in markets that have seasons. The scenario I presented, however, was addressing the correlation between # of sales and list/sale ratio. As the # of sales drops, the median list/sale ratio drops.
 
Tried to find a SMH emoji, but couldn't find one... you're missing the entire point (again). The point was, that what you're calling 'undue stimulus' is nothing more than the current market participants acting in their own best interests. Such that, AS OF TODAY, that is the market. The market may change tomorrow, but that's why our opinions of value have a date stamp...
Tried to find a SMH emoji, but couldn't find one... you're missing the entire point (again). The point was, that what you're calling 'undue stimulus' is nothing more than the current market participants acting in their own best interests. Such that, AS OF TODAY, that is the market. The market may change tomorrow, but that's why our opinions of value have a date stamp...
J.G. Grants reply to the meat cutter would be at $15.00 per pound that's an-outrageous price and its not a
good value . Now if I was the meat cutter I would look at her and say Look lady if you want value eat ground beef because like the Soup Nazi in Sienfelds TV show I run this operation. So No $15.00 A Pound Beef for you at any price and if you want value maybe you should take a look at our Rabi Blessed -Kosher Ham. Also for your information at my meat shop we sell by price not value - so now repeat that ten times and maybe it will go through your shtick skull : ) LMAO
 
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