How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

[George Hatch]

2013 is around when I think most large metro areas came off lows.

I have to take your word for it that the reduction in closed sales has nothing to do with active listings because I can't see the number of active listings for those past years. So I'll give it the benefit of the doubt and we will just have to wait to see what happens.

All I know is last time you were posting data like that and showing DOM with it, it showed decline in number of closed sales with declining DOM currently and leading up to 2007 it showed declining number of sales with big jump in DOM. The jump in DOM was like from teens to like 50's DOM leading up to 2007 and it was teens to like even lower teens currently. That's a big difference.

Let me repeat - it isn't lack of supply that has led to the reduction in volume because we have plenty of inventory in relation to the number of sales that have closed. So WRT this dataset if it isn't a lack of supply then why have the volumes slowed so much lower than at any point in the previous 7 years?


Will you please respond directly to this question?

 

[Joe Flacco]

Let me repeat - it isn't lack of supply that has led to the reduction in volume because we have plenty of inventory in relation to the number of sales that have closed. So WRT this dataset if it isn't a lack of supply then why have the volumes slowed so much lower than at any point in the previous 7 years?


Will you please respond directly to this question?

I don't know how to make sense of the number of closed sales vs the number of active listings you are stating. I don't think you are lying and I don't have the data to look into it myself, so I have to give it the benefit of the doubt. But it does not make sense to me that your prices are increasing and DOM is in the teens and is declining with one year supply currently on the market.

One thing I do notice about the median price data in some areas in my market is that declining percentage of distressed sales results in increasing median price when actual values are often not increasing.

 

[Mr Rex]

What part of NC are you in Rex?

Beyond the circumference of the area of impact from the state capital. How about you, can you say the same in regards to the US Capital? Do you think that it might make a difference?

 

[Joe Flacco]

Beyond the circumference of the area of impact from the state capital. How about you, can you say the same in regards to the US Capital? Do you think that it might make a difference?

Does what make a difference?

 

[Randolph Kinney]

The median-priced San Francisco home would require buyer to earn 9.2 times the median income

https://www.sfgate.com/expensive-sa...ontent=newsletter&utm_campaign=sfg_topothebay

Hmmm ... not to worry about prices since there is a shortage of inventory.

 

[Mr Rex]

That the area you serve is inordinately affected by the malignant growth of government and its associated metastasizing growth of associated "support or lobbying interests" that do not reflect the economy as a whole by any means and is one of the most distorted RE markets in the US for that reason?

 

[Joe Flacco]

Let me repeat - it isn't lack of supply that has led to the reduction in volume because we have plenty of inventory in relation to the number of sales that have closed. So WRT this dataset if it isn't a lack of supply then why have the volumes slowed so much lower than at any point in the previous 7 years?

Will you please respond directly to this question?

I don't know how to make sense of the number of closed sales vs the number of active listings you are stating. I don't think you are lying and I don't have the data to look into it myself, so I have to give it the benefit of the doubt. But it does not make sense to me that your prices are increasing and DOM is in the teens and is declining with one year supply currently on the market.

One thing I do notice about the median price data in some areas in my market is that declining percentage of distressed sales results in increasing median price when actual values are often not increasing.

If I had to guess without access to the data in your area, what is going on is that active listings were at the lowest in 2013 when you had that big price pop off lows and then active listings came off lows in 2015 and is now returning to lows. Maybe not shortage yet but headed to shortage.

 

[Joe Flacco]

That the area you serve is inordinately affected by the malignant growth of government and its associated metastasizing growth of associated "support or lobbying interests" that do not reflect the economy as a whole by any means and is one of the most distorted RE markets in the US for that reason?

I don't know. I was just looking up Charlotte area and it looks like Charlotte is doing a lot better than Washington area. Does that make you feel better?

Charlotte "booming". Huntersville broke out in 2017 and following. Davidson not breaking out yet but about to break out and follow Charlotte and Huntersville higher.

 

[Mr Rex]

So you should move to Charlotte based on "it looks like"...

 

[ucbruin]

If you say so.
Interesting how, in the City of San Francisco, in the suburbs of Menlo Park, in the periphery areas of Livermore (all areas in my residential markets; arguably urban, suburban, and semi-rural, respetively), H&BU can be a significant consequence.

My area and your area....