Why the stock market’s ‘Trump bump’ could become a ‘Trump dump’
Between Inauguration Day 2021 and Election Day 2024, the S&P 500 rose about 51%.
To those who are sure the “Trump bump” will continue, here’s a question: Are you sure you know more about the markets and investing than Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett — who has been busy dumping shares of Bank of America and Apple among others, and building Berkshire’s cash reserves to a massive $325 billion?
Why are you buying when the “Oracle of Omaha” is selling? What do you know that he doesn’t? And conversely, what does Buffett know that you’re missing?
For example, other than Trump and some of his advisers, few really believe that a tariff war — with the resulting inflation that will surely hit American consumers — is a net positive. A tariff war will generate friction, perhaps even instability, with key trading partners in Europe and Asia.
Investors like certainty; this is the opposite. And why don’t more investors get that more than
41 million American jobs — one of every three U.S. workers — depend on trade? The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, about as pro-business an organization as you’ll ever find, notes that these figures have nearly tripled since 1992 “due in large part to the trade-opening policies reached at the end of the 20th century to now.”
And what makes anyone think Trump’s tariffs will work any better this time around than they did during his first term? A study conducted in January 2021 — just as Trump’s presidency was ending — estimated that Trump’s tariffs
cost almost 250,000 American jobs, while another study said the
trade deficit — which Trump said he would eliminate — soared on his watch.
If you really want to shrink government, try the state and local level, where the workforce numbers some 20.5 million — almost seven times as large as the federal workforce. State and local workers aren’t running safety checks on your food, don’t man security checkpoints at airports and don’t send you a Social Security check every month. No disrespect to those 20.5 million state and local government workers, but how come when people complain that “the government is too big,” they always mean the feds? Seems like a fair question. Perhaps taking an axe to state and local government might be helpful?
So again, why be so sure that President Trump’s second term will be great for stocks? Equities did well during Trump’s first term. But they’ve done well on Biden’s watch, too. And stocks did better during Barack Obama’s eight years
than either of them. In Buffett-speak, if you think it’s a time to be greedy, then by all means back up the truck and load up on stocks. But don’t expect to see Buffett, Shiller or Klarman alongside you.