How long will the Trump Trade go?

[Fernando]

The stock market as well as crypto and US dollar have been gaining strength since Trump won.
The rich is gaining so much wealth. Thanks to the economic dissatisfaction from the voters.

 

[Charles West]

Interest rates are falling, as is gold, and the dollar is strengthening. This phenomenon is the financial market's way of saying that Trump's economic plan is promising for private sector growth and debt reduction.

 

[Fernando]

Americans don't realize the increase prices to come for next four years when tariffs are put into place.
Almost everything we buy are imported - Electronics, Appliances, Clothes, Furnitures, Cars, Solar Panels, Steel, Aluminum, Food, Toys, Sporting Goods, Remodeling materials, Medical supplies, Textiles, Beauty products, Office supplies, Pet supplies, Auto parts, Jewelry and watches, music instruments, kitchen utensils, and books. Anything I left out?

 

[Fernando]

MSN

Why the stock market’s ‘Trump bump’ could become a ‘Trump dump’​

Between Inauguration Day 2021 and Election Day 2024, the S&P 500 rose about 51%.

To those who are sure the “Trump bump” will continue, here’s a question: Are you sure you know more about the markets and investing than Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett — who has been busy dumping shares of Bank of America and Apple among others, and building Berkshire’s cash reserves to a massive $325 billion?

Why are you buying when the “Oracle of Omaha” is selling? What do you know that he doesn’t? And conversely, what does Buffett know that you’re missing?

For example, other than Trump and some of his advisers, few really believe that a tariff war — with the resulting inflation that will surely hit American consumers — is a net positive. A tariff war will generate friction, perhaps even instability, with key trading partners in Europe and Asia.

Investors like certainty; this is the opposite. And why don’t more investors get that more than 41 million American jobs — one of every three U.S. workers — depend on trade? The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, about as pro-business an organization as you’ll ever find, notes that these figures have nearly tripled since 1992 “due in large part to the trade-opening policies reached at the end of the 20th century to now.”

And what makes anyone think Trump’s tariffs will work any better this time around than they did during his first term? A study conducted in January 2021 — just as Trump’s presidency was ending — estimated that Trump’s tariffs cost almost 250,000 American jobs, while another study said the trade deficit — which Trump said he would eliminate — soared on his watch.

If you really want to shrink government, try the state and local level, where the workforce numbers some 20.5 million — almost seven times as large as the federal workforce. State and local workers aren’t running safety checks on your food, don’t man security checkpoints at airports and don’t send you a Social Security check every month. No disrespect to those 20.5 million state and local government workers, but how come when people complain that “the government is too big,” they always mean the feds? Seems like a fair question. Perhaps taking an axe to state and local government might be helpful?

So again, why be so sure that President Trump’s second term will be great for stocks? Equities did well during Trump’s first term. But they’ve done well on Biden’s watch, too. And stocks did better during Barack Obama’s eight years than either of them. In Buffett-speak, if you think it’s a time to be greedy, then by all means back up the truck and load up on stocks. But don’t expect to see Buffett, Shiller or Klarman alongside you.

 

[Tom D]

For a second i thought i was watching cnn, the repeating left parrots. I stopped reading after my brain flashed fake news, fake news. Sorry king.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

In my opinion the core stockholders operate solely upon fundamentals regardless of the president. It is the peripheral players who create the most volatility attempting to read the tea leaves, and thus they react to events and get overtaken by events. There is no fundamental reason there is such a trade. Meanwhile the real core is focusing upon those fundamentals. What is demand going forward. What is the impact of all these layoffs we see as business after business shuts down, goes bankrupt, downsizes, etc. I see no upside for Red Lobster, TGI Fridays, Bed Bath Beyond, Lumber Liquidators, Rite Aid, etc. going under.

mericans don't realize the increase prices to come for next four years when tariffs

Where were you in 2016-20? His tariffs were targeted at folks who were limiting our exports while we allowed them unlimited imports. That has to change. Your economic thought process seems a mite shallow.

 

[Charles West]

My boy is hitting the ground running. On day 1, the Biden restrictions and regulations on the economy will fall, replacing the left's command and control economic model with organic growth policies, unleashing the pent-up animal instincts in multiple sectors of the economy. A pro-business tax code will be made permanent with less reliance on the individual income tax to fund the government and provide a long-term solution for debt relief.

 

[Fernando]

What's happening with down trend of stock market?
Is market seeing the horrid reality that Trump will bring in the future?
Trump is inheriting a current good economy from Biden. Trump better not mess it up.

 

[Fernando]

Stock market continues to go up. Yeah!

Trump's choice for Treasury helped the market as he's a "friend" to Wall Street.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is a pragmatist and will make sure tariffs won't hurt the economy too badly.

"Bessent is coming armed with what he calls his “3-3-3” strategy, a nod to Japan’s former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “three arrows” policy. Bessent’s version? Cut the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028, drive GDP growth to 3% through deregulation, and boost domestic oil production by 3 million barrels per day."

"But that’s just the beginning. Bessent wants to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanently. He’s pushing for the elimination of taxes on overtime pay, Social Security benefits, and even tips. To keep spending in check, he’s eyeing freezes on non-defense discretionary budgets.

On the green-energy front, he’s calling for reforms to electric vehicle subsidies and other programs tied to the Inflation Reduction Act. All of this is designed to reduce the federal debt, which Bessent views as an existential threat to the U.S. economy."

 

[Fernando]

Today, stock market went down big. Any gains from the Trump trade all gone. Hope it's not a harbinger for next year.