So, you read this, "It originated with appraisers." and somehow concluded that I said it all started with a single appraiser. ??? My reference to "an appraiser" was a reference to GSE exposure. Yes, they hired an appraiser, who had been exposed to hundreds of other appraisers who had already been doing "hybrids" for many years. As I have said multiple times, this process is not nearly as new as some appraisers believe that it is.
The "hybrid" process has been employed by multiple companies for many years now. Do you think that those companies have ever run any tests to compare the results of the "hybrid" process to "traditional" processes? Do you think the lenders who have been using the process for years now for non-origination work have ever conducted such tests themselves?
Seems to me few appraisers on this forum, or any other I have spoken with, save you and other "appraisers" with questionable motives, believe a bifurcated product is a good product for lending, or much else really, at least when quality is a primary concern. This is the basis for my statements in response to yours. As for tests and statistics well, do you really expect me or anyone else to believe that "test" results are not doctored in favor of a cause all the time or at the very least, highly subjective to interpretaion. When big money is on the line, morality tends to take a back seat - now there's a typical behavior you can rely on from history.
The unstated assumption in this argument is that the inspection done by the appraiser in a typical traditional appraisal assignment is inherently superior to an inspection that might be conducted by a non-appraiser. Yet, are there not regularly posts in this very forum addressing some grievous mistake that an appraiser made during the inspection process? How much formal training in property inspection is required in order to obtain appraiser credentials?
No, no, no. That is your
stated assumption in this argument, not mine (with added misleading anecdotes for good measure). My conclusion, is that a picture is not an equal substitute for a walk-through, that a buyer would never purchase on a picture alone and that if the actual appraiser is not inspecting homes on a regular basis, they will not be experienced enough in that which they appraise to be as competent as they could/should be. Meaning that, after awhile, the competence of appraisers as a whole could begin to degrade from a lack of hands-on experience with e property they appraise. As far as an inspection being done by an appraiser, being better than an inspection done by a non-appraiser, it is also my conclusion that it is ridiculous to claim that it wouldn't be. There is so much information regarding the elements of property value that enter the appraisers head from the walk-through that never make it into the notes or pictures. Again, to claim having someone else, even another appraiser, do an inspection for the appraiser, and the process would somehow not be diminished and remain equal, is a ridiculous claim. That claim is just as ridiculous as it would be to claim a drive-by is every bit as good as an interior inspection, when any moron knows it is most certainly not.
In my view, appraisers keep focusing on the wrong thing. Twenty plus years ago appraisers made the collective decision to forego participating in a national database, because they thought that data collection was such a valuable part of the appraisal process. Now, some are poised to repeat that move because they are once again focused, IMO, on the wrong value proposition. The primary value that appraisers add is analysis of data, not collection of data.
I agree with you in part on this one. Appraisers did make a mistake in not participating in the data business. However, I don't think this is quite the same thing here. This time, appraisers stand to lose money from loss of service and worse, the profession has potential to become degraded. The last time around, appraisers could have actually made money and stopped the AVM from gaining as much ground as it has. I do agree with the sentiment that in general, appraisers tend to lack the appropriate focus when it comes to the profession.
As for the last sentence, I could not agree more, that our highest value is our ability to analyze data. That is also exactly why I bring the arguments I do to this discussion. If an appraisers ability to analyze the data were to degrade, lets say from a lack of hands-on experience from the property we appraise, the most valuable part of what we do becomes less valuable. ...You were saying something about focus?
That depends on the appraiser and the exact process that is employed. From a pure appraisal perspective, the reason that we have historically personally inspected homes is because that has been the only way to get information about the relevant characteristics of the subject property. If that data is made available from another source that is equally reliable (recognizing that appraiser inspections themselves are not 100% reliable), then there is no reason sound appraisals cannot be developed through such a process.
LOL. Here you go playing lobbyist again. Ignoring relevant details, while presenting less-relevant and questionable details. You see Danny, this is why I give you a hard time. You do seem to understand focus. You do seem to understand narrative. So when you come on the
Appraisers Forum, and say the things you do, in the ways you say them, I just have a hard time believing you are here to forward the appraisal profession, and tend to believe you are here as liaison of the AMC/lending industry, with the task of smoothing over the natives. Have I come to the wrong conclusion?
I will say this, it will be hard for appraisers to win when the opposition has people like you in their corner. Maybe you would consider returning from the dark side?